Sometime back I wrote a defense of patient long term investing
I still agree with this. I suppose a successful trend following strategy is possible if one has important money in deferred or tax free accounts. Otherwise, IMO he or she needs to make a choice and commit to seeing it through. The program can't be dumb, and it can be nerve wracking, but it tends to work. I have 2 long term energy related investments, both MLPs and one essentially a royalty trust under a different legal setup, and one midstream. That they are MLPs is why I didn't sell high in 2013 or so when I cut back on other energy.
These two still show a moderate capital loss, but as I tried and failed to explain another time, I am way ahead of where I would be if I had just left this money invested in available savings offerings, due to the very much higher payouts on these two investments. However, I am way behind where I would be if I had invested this money in the S&P. That's the breaks, and this particular game is not yet over. I also sold some losing energy issues that I prematurely bought after the break. This money was re-invested in I think more robust energy issues which are all well ahead of my cost and also of many indexes, so those initial losses have been recouped and then some.
IMO, it is impossible to know if we are past the nadir in crude prices, and clearly natural gas still really stinks and that is not just mercaptans we're smelling. What gives me at least moderate confidence is that I don't think that the world can truly sign off on the fuel that has made all our modern life possible.
One thing for sure, I would invest more in technology, but I think to do this effectively would take skills and knowledge that I do not have and cannot realistically acquire. I remember in the late 90s I realized that I didn't know what any of that was about so I invested elsewhere.