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Sound advice from Frank Armstrong
Old 09-08-2007, 11:15 AM   #1
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Sound advice from Frank Armstrong

This is advice that many of us here already follow I believe, however Frank has a real capacity to wordsmith the concepts and make it very readable.


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[FONT='Arial','sans-serif'][FONT='Arial','sans-serif']Itís liberating to abandon the idea that we can time markets. If we accept that markets are random, and that market timing is a strategy with a very low probability of success, we can begin to develop appropriate strategies. Strategies that deal realistically with the uncertainty of the markets offer high probabilities of success over the long haul. And after all, itís the long haul that counts, not just one or two lucky calls. [/font]

[FONT='Arial','sans-serif']While the long term trend of equity markets is decidedly positive, you must accept that any particular day, year, or multi year period is a crap shoot. While there are plenty of bad days, good days outnumber bad days by a wide margin, and cumulative results are quite gratifying. Additionally, risk decreases the longer a volatile asset class is held. [/font]
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Old 09-08-2007, 06:26 PM   #2
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Here's another spin: Harry Dent, the author of The Next Great Bubble Boom "The Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010, says that the market is not random and a long-term pattern exists. He predicts that recession will occur in 2009 or 2010 during which plummet of real-estate and stock markets and massive unemployment will occur to mark the onset of recession.
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Old 09-08-2007, 06:46 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky View Post
Here's another spin: Harry Dent, the author of The Next Great Bubble Boom "The Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010, says that the market is not random and a long-term pattern exists. He predicts that recession will occur in 2009 or 2010 during which plummet of real-estate and stock markets and massive unemployment will occur to mark the onset of recession.
In the early 1990s, he predicted that the DOW would reach 10k. This prediction was met with much skepticism. In 2000, he predicted that the DOW would reach 40k, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book. In his book, he also predicted the Nasdaq will reach 13-20k. In January 2006, he predicted that the DOW would reach 14-15,000 by the end of the year. On 20th December 2006, it stood at 12,463- 11% below the lower end of his prediction.
Like nostradamus, make enough predictions, you'll be right sometime.
TJ
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Old 09-10-2007, 09:08 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teejayevans View Post
In the early 1990s, he predicted that the DOW would reach 10k. This prediction was met with much skepticism. In 2000, he predicted that the DOW would reach 40k, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book. In his book, he also predicted the Nasdaq will reach 13-20k. In January 2006, he predicted that the DOW would reach 14-15,000 by the end of the year. On 20th December 2006, it stood at 12,463- 11% below the lower end of his prediction.
Like nostradamus, make enough predictions, you'll be right sometime.
TJ
Dent is a goof...........
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