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Source for LTEG estimates for foreign companies?
Old 10-09-2004, 05:06 PM   #1
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Source for LTEG estimates for foreign companies?

Would anyone happen to know a source of 5 year estimates for foreign companies? I have found reuters provides current year and next year estimates but not 5 year estimates. I'd like to use the data to put together a bottom->up discounted cash flows analysis of the msci eafe index. I am wanting to invest a small portion of my portfolio outside the US, but really don't like the idea of doing so without understanding what my expected return will be.

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Re: Source for LTEG estimates for foreign companie
Old 10-10-2004, 12:23 AM   #2
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Re: Source for LTEG estimates for foreign companie

Sounds like a quest for the investor's holy grail.

Given the current credibility of American analysts and their abysmal forecasting record, what makes you think that any overseas data would be even as "good" as the domestic stuff?
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Re: Source for LTEG estimates for foreign companie
Old 10-10-2004, 08:37 AM   #3
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Re: Source for LTEG estimates for foreign companie

Quote:
Sounds like a quest for the investor's holy grail.

Given the current credibility of American analysts and their abysmal forecasting record, what makes you think that any overseas data would be even as "good" as the domestic stuff?
I think the holy grail is trying to find one TECHNICAL indicator that is going to predict the stock market. Discounted cash flows analysis is not a technical indicator. Nor is it the only tool I use to determine value. I further understand that an undervalued asset can remain so for some time. But I do make the assumption that it should return to fair value at some point in the future, which I will wait for.

In this case I would not need them to be better than the American analysts, I just need them to be equally bad. If they are off by about the same amount then I still am able to determine the relative value of the foreign stocks vs. the US ones.

The fact is analyst estimates are better than my own. I make their estimates more conservative through the other assumptions (ie - no growth after 5 years, 11% discount rate). Doing this on MS REIT Index (VGSIX) shows me 10% overvalued. Now maybe you wanna say it's more like 20% overvalued or whatever, but who cares? It tells me to wait to invest more money in it.
I think it's a given that there are plently of people with lots of money in the market who use analyst estimates. It seems reasonable enough to know what they are paying given said estimates.


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Re: Source for LTEG estimates for foreign companie
Old 10-10-2004, 09:04 AM   #4
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Re: Source for LTEG estimates for foreign companie

Oh, and if no one knows of one. (damn, that's a lot of nos and ones). That's ok too. I just thought one of the perpetual travelers might be more familiar with foreign markets. There could be any number of reasons why this data isn't published. More looking for the data than seeking to convert others to my investing beliefs. I gave it a pretty good search before I posted and came up bupkis.

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Re: Source for LTEG estimates for foreign companie
Old 10-10-2004, 05:11 PM   #5
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Re: Source for LTEG estimates for foreign companie

If you are a glution for punishment - I'd recommend Bernstein's Efficient Frontier website - put expected growth rates in the search engine - read some articles and decide if you really, really want to mess with expected growth - even at the index or country level.

If that doesn't make you ill - and you desire further self punishment - you might pony up some $ for Mergents Online - international data.

Being a Boglehead - balanced index out of the can - don't say I didn't warn you.

O.k, o.k. - I buy Mergent's Dividend Achievers book and do dividend stocks with 15% of my stash.

Forbes covers International several times a year - the library might have some old issues - but not exactly the data you'll be looking for.

Good luck - I don' remember seeing expected growth rates below the index level.
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