We are getting away from the OP, but since this matter (market timing
) has been broached, please allow me to state something that came to mind.
If the expected market return is not going to be that great - using fundamental analysis of the economic condition - then when we have a great run, would that not mean the market is ahead of the game, and it is prudent to dial back our AA?
Running-man says that what is he is doing in another thread, and I have been quoting Kelly criterion to say that there is mathematical basis for reducing one's bet when the probability of the outcome changes.
Caveat: I am still around 70% equity, and have been thinking about either dialing back or selling options to hedge.