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View Poll Results: Has the recent market correction made you consider adding fixed annuities to your AA
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Old 08-28-2015, 12:17 AM   #41
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Here's another one that specifically mentions SPIAs.

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Old 08-28-2015, 01:34 AM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nun View Post
I agree. I have a state pension and SS as well as my TIAA-Traditional so all my income needs are covered by things other than market investments so I won't be buying an SPIA either. But would those of us who have pensions swap them for an equivalent amount invested in the markets. People with pensions generally seem glad of them, but few people seem to want to buy SPIAs. Is it just that commercially available SPIAs aren't good value when compared with the small number of workplace pensions still left or military pensions?
In fairness, most government pensions probably have COLA - something that would be quite expensive if you buy an SPIA so the pension is already hedged for inflation.

Also, consider mortality rates and profit. Insurance companies need to make a profit and most folks who buy SPIAs are expecting themselves to be longer lived. Meanwhile, pension systems can use the "profit" made by the insurance companies to pay for higher benefits (albeit benefits are unsustainably high for some).

I found the following quick stats for our retirement system:

Ave. retirement age: 60
Ave. age of retirees receiving pension: 70
Ave. age of beneficiaries receiving pension: 75

So basically, on average the retirement system only pays 10 years of benefits before the employee croaks. Default spousal continuance is at 50%. A co-worker told me that in a retirement seminar he attended years back, the lecturer mentioned retirees died around 5 years into retirement on average.

For simplicity, let's assume the employee is single. From http://www.immediateannuities.com, an SPIA that pays $40K a year at age 60 costs $665K for a male and $691K for a female. Even with a 3% COLA, that $665K would have been more than enough to cover the $40K + COLA paid out for 10 years even at 0% interest rate and still have money left over.

Another thing, the retirement systems for a lot of non-federal government employees are in-lieu of Social Security. Instead of contributing 6.2% into SS, employees pay a percentage of their salary to their retirement system so if the employee didn't work at an SS job for at least 10 years and just took the lump sum instead of annuity pension, there's no fallback on SS in case the market tanks. Besides, since the lump sum option is usually just a return of contributions plus a small interest based on treasuries, it's generally a no-brainer to take the annuity.

Mind, our employee contributions are 10%. Assuming $50K starting salary adjusted yearly for inflation, backtesting using http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com of the Coffee House Portfolio for the period of 1979-2008 (30 years) shows an ending portfolio balance of $1.2M (for employee only contributions). Final salary is $150K and pension is $90K (60%). That's a fairly generous 7.5% WR. Of course, if you had retired in 2007, portfolio is at $1.5M. Still, that's a pretty high 6% WR. Granted, if you assume a 6.2% employer match in addition to the employee contribution, that's a portfolio balance of $1.9M in 2008 with a high of $2.4M in 2007.
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Old 08-28-2015, 07:49 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Onward View Post
Here's another one that specifically mentions SPIAs.

I think everyone here knows the contents of the video and would buy an SPIA as insurance against living a long time or the possibility of a significant and prolonged market correction early in the drawdown phase. They should also only use a portion of their portfolio. Having as base of income that does not depend on the markets is good planning IMHO. SPIAs are not great value as even if you lived forever your implied investment return will never be greater than the payout rate, but if you don't have a pension or enough SS they might be considered and thought of as insurance rather than an investment
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Old 08-28-2015, 08:21 AM   #44
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Emphasis added:
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Originally Posted by nun View Post
I think everyone here knows the contents of the video and would buy an SPIA as insurance against living a long time or the possibility of a significant and prolonged market correction early in the drawdown phase.
I don't think everyone here would agree with that. An SPIA bought to protect against sequence of returns risk early in retirement will be very expensive due to the meager mortality credits for a younger person. If worried about the risk of poor stock market performance in the first years of retirement, I'd recommend that a retiree (especially an ER) start with a higher allocation to cash, a CD ladder, or a bond ladder to cover the first 5-10 years of expenses rather than use an SPIA for this purpose. They can then re-allocate to a higher % in equities gradually later once they are are out of the woods.
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Old 08-28-2015, 09:06 AM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nun View Post
I think everyone here knows the contents of the video and would buy an SPIA as insurance against living a long time or the possibility of a significant and prolonged market correction early in the drawdown phase. They should also only use a portion of their portfolio. Having as base of income that does not depend on the markets is good planning IMHO. SPIAs are not great value as even if you lived forever your implied investment return will never be greater than the payout rate, but if you don't have a pension or enough SS they might be considered and thought of as insurance rather than an investment
You love SPIA's, that's fine. But your conclusion doesn't seem to jive with your poll at all!

If I buy a SPIA it won't be until I am near 80 yo, and I certainly wouldn't buy one today (even if I was 80) if I could avoid it with interest rates/yields at historic lows. Very high price for floor income via SPIA's right now. YMMV
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Old 08-28-2015, 09:07 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by nun View Post
I think everyone here knows the contents of the video and would buy an SPIA as insurance against living a long time or the possibility of a significant and prolonged market correction early in the drawdown phase. They should also only use a portion of their portfolio. Having as base of income that does not depend on the markets is good planning IMHO. SPIAs are not great value as even if you lived forever your implied investment return will never be greater than the payout rate, but if you don't have a pension or enough SS they might be considered and thought of as insurance rather than an investment
I disagree also - I mentioned the only value I see for SPIA annuities was to allay the perceived fear of depleting one's income stream before leaving. The longer you can wait - the more attractive the income stream, but then there's that other factor...

IMHO - when you enter into an annuity contract, the insurance company justifies it's underwhelming payout by telling you you're insuring your income stream for living a long time. All you have to do is divide the initial cost of the SPIA by the annual payout to estimate your departure they have targeted for you. That is also how long it will take you just to get your own money back.

Not too many would advise putting all of one's investments into an annuity. The majority of people "already" have more than enough income stream coming from an annuity - it's called Social Security. And as bad as most people think SS is - it still pays out better than anything one can buy.
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Old 08-28-2015, 09:20 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Onward View Post
Here's another one that specifically mentions SPIAs.
The title "Why Annuities are Like Heroin" should clue you in that you're not getting a balanced review of where SPIAs might be useful.

Nobody here is going to suggest that people put 100% of their savings in non-COLA'd SPIAs. We all understand inflation and know how SWRs were developed.

The video's primary complaint about SPIAs (as close as I can tell) is that most are not inflation protected. But, the speaker has no problem with people putting 40% of their assets in non-COLA'd bonds. If I buy a 20 year bond today with a 3.5% coupon, I'm locking in 3.5% of my original purchase price for 20 years, with no inflation protection. And, I'll eventually get my purchase price back without any inflation adjustment.

He did not consider a portfolio that might be 60/40, where the 40 is split equally between bonds and a SPIA. He did not consider buying a CPI indexed SPIA. He did not discuss the insurance characteristics of a SPIA, or a deferred, zero-cash value annuity (aka longevity insurance). He didn't talk about the difference between buying at 60 vs. buying at 80.
All of those ideas get discussed here.
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Old 08-28-2015, 09:34 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by hnzw_rui View Post
I found the following quick stats for our retirement system:

Ave. retirement age: 60
Ave. age of retirees receiving pension: 70
Ave. age of beneficiaries receiving pension: 75

So basically, on average the retirement system only pays 10 years of benefits before the employee croaks. Default spousal continuance is at 50%. A co-worker told me that in a retirement seminar he attended years back, the lecturer mentioned retirees died around 5 years into retirement on average.
I think you've got a math error here.

Suppose everybody retired at 60 and everybody died at 80. If the number of retirees per year is constant, then the "average age of retirees receiving pensions" is 70. But, clearly everybody gets 20 years of benefits before they "croak".

But, of course, mortality isn't that predictable. SPIAs are purchased by people who want to be prepared for the possibility of a very long life.
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Old 08-28-2015, 09:49 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Independent View Post
The title "Why Annuities are Like Heroin" should clue you in that you're not getting a balanced review of where SPIAs might be useful.

Nobody here is going to suggest that people put 100% of their savings in non-COLA'd SPIAs. We all understand inflation and know how SWRs were developed.

The video's primary complaint about SPIAs (as close as I can tell) is that most are not inflation protected. But, the speaker has no problem with people putting 40% of their assets in non-COLA'd bonds. If I buy a 20 year bond today with a 3.5% coupon, I'm locking in 3.5% of my original purchase price for 20 years, with no inflation protection. And, I'll eventually get my purchase price back without any inflation adjustment.

He did not consider a portfolio that might be 60/40, where the 40 is split equally between bonds and a SPIA. He did not consider buying a CPI indexed SPIA. He did not discuss the insurance characteristics of a SPIA, or a deferred, zero-cash value annuity (aka longevity insurance). He didn't talk about the difference between buying at 60 vs. buying at 80.
All of those ideas get discussed here.
Well, according to the poll results - you won't get too many takers here for your wonderful suggestions for other SPIA uses.
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Old 08-28-2015, 10:06 AM   #50
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Well, according to the poll results - you won't get too many takers here for your wonderful suggestions for other SPIA uses.
Well, to be fair, that's hard to discern from the way the poll is worded. 99% of the people here might be planning to buy an SPIA and the poll results could be just as they are now, provided the people didn't make their decision to buy them based on the recent market blip.
I would consider buying one in the same circumstances you and others have mentioned-- an in extremis case where it looks likely my portfolio might not see us to the end of the line, and an SPIA looks like the best of a series of bad options.

Independent's "wonderful suggestions" could also be useful, for people in the right set of circumstances.
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Old 08-28-2015, 10:21 AM   #51
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I think you've got a math error here.

Suppose everybody retired at 60 and everybody died at 80. If the number of retirees per year is constant, then the "average age of retirees receiving pensions" is 70. But, clearly everybody gets 20 years of benefits before they "croak".

But, of course, mortality isn't that predictable. SPIAs are purchased by people who want to be prepared for the possibility of a very long life.
Ah, yes. I stand corrected. I guess my bias was skewed knowing a co-worker who died a week after retirement as well as plenty of folks who never even made it to retirement.

In that case, break-even based on SPIA amount (at 0% interest) is around 14 years for males and 15 years for females. Assuming the person collected 20 years of COLA pension, IRR is 4.65% for males and 4.19% for females. For fixed annuities, IRR after 20 years is just 1.91% for males and 1.45% for females.
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Old 08-28-2015, 10:43 AM   #52
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Well, to be fair, that's hard to discern from the way the poll is worded. 99% of the people here might be planning to buy an SPIA and the poll results could be just as they are now, provided the people didn't make their decision to buy them based on the recent market blip.
I would consider buying one in the same circumstances you and others have mentioned-- an in extremis case where it looks likely my portfolio might not see us to the end of the line, and an SPIA looks like the best of a series of bad options.

Independent's "wonderful suggestions" could also be useful, for people in the right set of circumstances.
Maybe, but 93% (so far - one more said yes, they would) of those who voted said they would not buy annuities, and responses are also leaning that way. There are those that like them, sell them, and then there are those that see little to no value in them. I happen to be one of those who does see a little value in an SPIA, but I wouldn't buy one unless I was in fear of running out of retirement income (as you've also stated), and find no value in any of the other "wonderful suggestions" by independent.
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:00 AM   #53
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Maybe, but 93% (so far - one more said yes, they would) of those who voted said they would not buy annuities, and responses are also leaning that way.
? No, the poll did not ask people if they intended to buy an annuity. It specifically asked (emphasis added) "Has the recent market correction made you consider adding fixed annuities to your AA?" That's an entirely different question. In fact, anyone who was already sure (before the market blip) they were going to annuitize their entire portfolio would have to answer "no".
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:09 AM   #54
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Well, according to the poll results - you won't get too many takers here for your wonderful suggestions for other SPIA uses.
If you mean the poll in this thread, it's asking whether the recent market correction made you reconsider. I answered the poll "no". That doesn't say anything about whether I think annuities are useful, just whether this one additional data point changed my mind.

If you find my response, it's consistent with this recent post. I see annuities as a substitute for bonds, not for stocks.

I'm sure we can find other polls which show that most people here don't use private annuities. I don't -- in my case that's because deferring SS gives us all the annuities I think we'll need, with some possibility of an SPIA as a future Plan B. But most posters here can give you much more thoughtful responses than the video.
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:30 AM   #55
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I happen to be one of those who does see a little value in an SPIA, but I wouldn't buy one unless I was in fear of running out of retirement income (as you've also stated), and find no value in any of the other "wonderful suggestions" by independent.
Let's be clear, I didn't use the phrase "wonderful suggestions", you did.

I think they are all good things to think about.
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:50 AM   #56
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Maybe, but 93% (so far - one more said yes, they would) of those who voted said they would not add annuities, and responses are also leaning that way. There are those that like them, sell them, and then there are those that see little to no value in them. I happen to be one of those who does see a little value in an SPIA, but I wouldn't buy one unless I was in fear of running out of retirement income (as you've also stated), and find no value in any of the other "wonderful suggestions" by independent.
Ok - fixed it.

I did say "wonderful suggestions" but didn't add the quotation marks to draw it out.
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:51 AM   #57
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You love SPIA's, that's fine. But your conclusion doesn't seem to jive with your poll at all!

If I buy a SPIA it won't be until I am near 80 yo, and I certainly wouldn't buy one today (even if I was 80) if I could avoid it with interest rates/yields at historic lows. Very high price for floor income via SPIA's right now. YMMV
I don't love SPIAs, particularly in this low interest rate environment. But I do love having income that is not directly dependent on the stock an bond markets. SS, pensions, rental income and probably finally annuities will provide diversity of income. I have income enough from non direct market sources without having to resort to SPIAs, but believe that many retirees are not sufficiently diversified in their retirement income sources. People on this board can probably mange their withdrawals sensibly from their portfolios, however, is that true for the majority of retirees that have retirement accounts invested in mutual funds?
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:55 AM   #58
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I don't love SPIAs, particularly in this low interest rate environment. But I do love having income that is not directly dependent on the stock an bond markets. SS, pensions, rental income and probably finally annuities will provide diversity of income. I have income enough from non direct market sources without having to resort to SPIAs, but believe that many retirees are not sufficiently diversified in their retirement income sources.
And that's fine. However, those here who aren't at all interested in any type annuity haven't arrived at their decision unaware of their options or risks...
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Old 08-28-2015, 12:21 PM   #59
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And that's fine. However, those here who aren't at all interested in any type annuity haven't arrived at their decision unaware of their options or risks...
Sure, like I said I'm sure people here will manage their withdrawals sensibly. But I have always planned on retiring with a good floor of guaranteed income. Things worked out so that I actually don't need to make any withdrawals from my mutual funds for retirement income so I'm at the other end of the spectrum. There will probably be some people retiring with 401ks who will look at annuities again after the recent bit of turmoil mostly through fear. I think it's a good idea for them get income outside of the markets......unfortunately annuities aren't a good deal right now and many will compound market losses by buying poor annuities. My position on them is that I'd only buy a fixed annuity and then only with a reasonable interest rate. That is why I have some money in TIAA-Traditional which has some annuity type properties, but is yielding 4.5% interest and I can get at my principal and pass it on to my heirs. I use it as a stable value fund on steroids.

I remember I once posted a poll asking at what interest rate (not payout rate) people would buy an annuity.....of course that requires an assumption about your life span........and most people wouldn't even consider them with rates of as high as 8%, which seems silly to me if you are ing good health.
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Old 08-28-2015, 09:17 PM   #60
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As for Pensions vs. annuities - there's a simple answer to your question of why people are more accepting of pensions. Pensions are something you are "given" (not chosen), and annuities are something you buy (choose).
Not sure I agree with that. I "bought" my pension annuity when I elected to forego the lump sum. Additionally, pensions are not "given" like gifts. They are earned, same as other components of one's compensation and benefits package.

Aside from the currently-low payout ratios for SPIAs (which is no small consideration), I see little substantive difference in the decision process compared to a non-COLA DB pension annuity with a lump sum option. COLA'd pensions OTOH have a clear advantage and deserve the reverence that is bestowed upon them.

I answered 'no' to the poll, but that's because we have pensions (1 COLA, 1 not). Without pensions, I would *perhaps* consider an SPIA, but not at today's rates, and certainly not in response to the recent correction and ongoing volatility. It would be for the same reason we originally elected the pension annuities, which is to create a balanced mix of guaranteed income and portfolio withdrawals as a hedge against a bad sequence of returns in early (pre-SS) retirement. We annuitized just enough assets to cover bare-bones, non-discretionary expenses. The way I see it, any end-of-life upside potential that I sacrificed for my kids, is a relatively minor tradeoff compared to a potentially catastrophic result early on. Having said that however, samclem's suggestions seem quite reasonable as an alternative to an SPIA being considered for this reason:

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An SPIA bought to protect against sequence of returns risk early in retirement will be very expensive due to the meager mortality credits for a younger person. If worried about the risk of poor stock market performance in the first years of retirement, I'd recommend that a retiree (especially an ER) start with a higher allocation to cash, a CD ladder, or a bond ladder to cover the first 5-10 years of expenses rather than use an SPIA for this purpose. They can then re-allocate to a higher % in equities gradually later once they are are out of the woods.
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