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SS estimation, drawing years after "retirement"
Old 07-27-2016, 02:51 PM   #1
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SS estimation, drawing years after "retirement"

Maybe I'm missing something, but I am looking for a SS estimate. I am planning on retiring a month shy of my 55th birthday, but not drawing SS until 67. The SS admin website estimator always assumes one "retirement" age (in my case 67) and assumes that I will work, making an average of what I make now until 67 (and thus contributing via SS tax).

Is there a tool/site out there that will estimate my SS monthly payments given 12+ years between actual "retirement" and drawing SS?
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Old 07-27-2016, 02:55 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doneat58 View Post
Is there a tool/site out there that will estimate my SS monthly payments given 12+ years between actual "retirement" and drawing SS?
It's been a while but...

Yes, it is right on the ssa.gov site. Do a regular estimate (link at the bottom of the page) and then click on the button for doing another estimate. For the years you'll be retired and before starting SS, enter "0" for your future earnings. Not working will reduce you benefit some but probably not by much.
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Old 07-27-2016, 03:53 PM   #3
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Next will be the question about taking $$$ out of 401K (could be allowed without penalty check with your company as company has final say in the rules for withdrawal)

OP - Do you have a bunch of $$$ in regular accounts (not 401K, IRA, etc) that you can spend from 55 -> 59.5 ??
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Old 07-27-2016, 04:13 PM   #4
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There is also a little program you can download from the SSA's website. It's called ANYPIA or something like that. Once you have it, you enter your wage income history and it calculates your future benefit. I also created a spreadsheet to mimic that calculation which got me to within a dollar of the ANYPIA's amount.
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Old 07-27-2016, 04:23 PM   #5
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you can do a custom calculation and assume you have some on other income (0 in your case) for future years. I've done that in my case... except I look at taking mine at 70 and RE one month shy of 54.

just use ssa.gov benefit estimation tool. It will first give the the 3 normal cases, but you can do others.
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Old 07-27-2016, 06:28 PM   #6
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Not to mention the results returned are in today's dollars. By the time you get around to collecting those benefits, they will have increased by the COLA for each year until you do.
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Old 07-27-2016, 06:34 PM   #7
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there are a few calculators - it isn't that hard to calculate it yourself in a worksheet - if you can match SSAs numbers just zero out your earnings and see what you get. It may not be that different. Don't forget the cpiu/cpiw assumptions
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Old 07-28-2016, 09:02 AM   #8
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This one:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/anypia/download.html

Not at all a user friendly interface, but worth the work involved, IMO. Scott Burns' book does a good job of reviewing all the calculators/estimates available:

https://www.amazon.com/Get-Whats-You.../dp/1476772290
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Old 07-28-2016, 09:39 AM   #9
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I use and like the downloaded tool from SS, called AnyPia. It does what you want.
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Old 07-28-2016, 09:41 AM   #10
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I DL'ed ANYPIA and put the wage history in it but haven't got results yet, but I will continue to work with it.

The answer to income sources between retirement and SS draws is "it's complicated". My DW will continue to work 3-4 years past me, then there will be a period where we will have to pay healthcare out of pocket, then Medicare but no SS, etc. Meeting with for fee FA next week to discuss portfolio draws during those periods, will see what he says.
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Old 07-28-2016, 03:24 PM   #11
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I think it will be different, lower, when you get the answer you are looking for. SS bases off 40 of your best years, currently they are assuming that you will be working 10 years at your current wage. So if your past 40 year are lower than what they are assuming then your benefits will also be lower.

If you still have trouble with these free calculators I found "maximize your social security" very good but it cost 40 dollars.
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Old 07-28-2016, 03:39 PM   #12
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I think it will be different, lower, when you get the answer you are looking for. SS bases off 40 of your best years, currently they are assuming that you will be working 10 years at your current wage. So if your past 40 year are lower than what they are assuming then your benefits will also be lower.
I thought it was 35 years... and SSA.gov says it is highest 35 years for 2016. I know there are some proposals to change the calculations. Where did you get 40 years?
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Old 07-28-2016, 04:43 PM   #13
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Actually in anypia there is a line in the estimate called indexed monthly earnings. (that is the indexed average earnings you have up till now. The program also provides the bend points and if you are above 4624 then you are in the 15% benefit range i.e. if you increase your average indexed monthly wage by $1 you get .15 in increased benefits. So once you clear the 33% bend point (4624) by a reasonable amount, you wont get a lot by working longer. Note if high inflation happens your early wages will also be indexed higher.
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Old 07-28-2016, 05:04 PM   #14
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Actually in anypia there is a line in the estimate called indexed monthly earnings. (that is the indexed average earnings you have up till now. The program also provides the bend points and if you are above 4624 then you are in the 15% benefit range i.e. if you increase your average indexed monthly wage by $1 you get .15 in increased benefits. So once you clear the 33% bend point (4624) by a reasonable amount, you wont get a lot by working longer. Note if high inflation happens your early wages will also be indexed higher.
When I trying to predict my future SS benefit, I had to include about 12 zeroes for all the missing years of wage earnings. (I had a few tiny wage earnings years in my summer jobs while in college, but that has a negligible effect.) Even with all those zeroes, I was barely in the 15% benefit range. I also projected out my last year of wage earnings to figure out about how much more my SS benefit would be had I kept working long enough to fill in those zeroes. Those years of wage earnings would not be much because I was working only part-time at the same job after again voluntarily cutting my pay the year before I retired. The benefit reduction from retiring when I did was about 10%, hardly a big deal.
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Old 07-30-2016, 03:25 PM   #15
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I thought it was 35 years... and SSA.gov says it is highest 35 years for 2016. I know there are some proposals to change the calculations. Where did you get 40 years?
My mistake thanks for the clarification.

Bob
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Old 08-02-2016, 01:10 PM   #16
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I DL the AnyPia spreadsheet (Thanks for that). I plugged in all the numbers from the Salary for SS purposes sections from 1988 till the last year before I FIRED. The Number it provides for the benefit I will receive at FRA is 350 more than is posted on the SSA.GOV. Website. Not sure why, any ideas?
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