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View Poll Results: Dow's approximate bottom will be:
6800+ ( we are at it now, up from here!) 18 11.11%
6500 20 12.35%
6250 10 6.17%
6000 29 17.90%
Below 6000 (Honey, sell silver on ebay! You like Fancy Feast?) 85 52.47%
Voters: 162. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-02-2009, 01:23 PM   #21
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I am going to say 6100 and please end this torture . I am about ready to give up & get out .
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Old 03-02-2009, 01:28 PM   #22
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Isn't Bob Brinker saying 500 for the S&P and 5,000 for the Dow is a real possibility? (sigh) Do I have the backbone to hang in there is the question now?
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Old 03-02-2009, 01:29 PM   #23
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This website: DJIA P/E RATIO, DJIA EARNINGS AND DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE FAIR VALUE opines $657 in Dow earnings in 2009. Assuming a P/E of 10, that gives us 6570.

SWAG, for sure...
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Old 03-02-2009, 01:31 PM   #24
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That was an interesting read HFWR, thanks!
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Old 03-02-2009, 01:32 PM   #25
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Old 03-02-2009, 01:36 PM   #26
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Since I don't have to touch my equities for another 5 years, I'm stayin'. Right now I'm going all out and putting cheese on my burger. I know how to live baby!

In five years......I might have to eat my burger plain...
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Old 03-02-2009, 01:41 PM   #27
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Isn't Bob Brinker saying 500 for the S&P and 5,000 for the Dow is a real possibility? (sigh) Do I have the backbone to hang in there is the question now?
Yeah, it's tough. The thing is, things suck and the market sees no rational reason to believe a resolution is coming any time soon. As a result, we have massive uncertainty. Now maybe most market participants don't think we're starting the 1930s all over again, but in the absence of anything that gives them a good sense of a "limit" to how bad things will get, uncertainty leads them to tend toward assuming the worst case (i.e. 1930s all over again, or maybe another Japan).

The markets don't seem convinced that governments can stem the tide any time soon. But again, if something is eventually announced that the market has some faith in -- hopefully sooner and not later -- that could trigger a massive rally fueled by short-covering among other things. And *maybe* then, and only then, will the true "bottom" be in place. And even that's no sure thing, because there would not no assurances that the measures would ultimately work.
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Old 03-02-2009, 01:42 PM   #28
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I'll take 6250.

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Old 03-02-2009, 01:43 PM   #29
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This poll is pretty much an indication the bottom is in for now! Can I change my timeframe?
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Old 03-02-2009, 01:49 PM   #30
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This poll is pretty much an indication the bottom is in for now! Can I change my timeframe?
This time is *is* different in some ways. Not in all ways, but in some.

Usually, diversification among equity classes works to reduce volatility. This time it's done almost bupkis as all equity classes have had positive correlations approaching unity since the market top.

Usually when there is overwhelming bearishness, a contrarian bullish reversal is just around the corner. Rampant bearishness hasn't turned anything.

None of the usual market axioms have held this time around. Plus, we have more negative uncertainty than most participants in this market have EVER seen during their investing years. All bets are off, IMO.
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:04 PM   #31
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Through careful prognostication of the DOW compnonents, most of which have been beaten almost to zero for their own individual behavior, I have relegated the furthur declaind of the bad and the raising of the three goods, I predict the bottom will occur on August 28, 2009 where it will hold -0 to +250 points until November 11 when election results will indicate the unfavorable consensus of failure for FED intervention. 5858 is the number.

I will also announce today that I am suspending all charitable donations and ask that others do the same. Many have enabled me to become wealthy and I was willing to share, but the rule changes declaring my deductions to be eliminated are untenable and clearly class warfare. If the governments intends to take care of everyone with some of my money, I cannot not stop them alone. But I can entrench in my own protectionism and stop supporting those I have helped in the past. I will not expand my business and I will give no more raises. Eventually, I will divest my business connections and become an isolationist. By positioning my assests in a protectionist fashion in non-taxable enitities I will voice my solitary view of silent non-support.
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:11 PM   #32
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6549. Eternal optimist here.

And does "my daughter's college fund" count as a charity? As you may have guessed, the current value has been somewhat impaired by the recent softness in the market.
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:12 PM   #33
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- With no 'psychological purge': 5,700 by 9/2 - and that won't be the bottom.
- With a major event leading to capitulation prior to 9/2: 5,200
No fair! One guess per person. If REWahoo wins, I'd only donate 1/2 the prize since he had two chances.
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:13 PM   #34
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6549. Eternal optimist here.

And does "my daughter's college fund" count as a charity? As you may have guessed, the current value has been somewhat impaired by the recent softness in the market.
Hmmm....maybe if it's a real fund and not your checking account!

I now see I should have included lower numbers. I guess a 15% drop from Friday over the next six months isn't much when we've dropped 3% in one day.
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:16 PM   #35
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:21 PM   #36
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OMG, well that didn't take long, just blew past my first selection, 6780 now and dropping...what's the sound of flesh and bone hitting concrete at high speeds? I think I just heard a sickening thud.
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:26 PM   #37
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OMG, well that didn't take long, just blew past my first selection, 6780 now and dropping...what's the sound of flesh and bone hitting concrete at high speeds? I think I just heard a sickening thud.
...........
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:27 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post

Usually when there is overwhelming bearishness, a contrarian bullish reversal is just around the corner. Rampant bearishness hasn't turned anything.

None of the usual market axioms have held this time around. Plus, we have more negative uncertainty than most participants in this market have EVER seen during their investing years. All bets are off, IMO.
This is the part that pains me the most. It has been so obvious to everyone that the markets would (and still will) continue to decline, but I stupidly thought all the concerns would already be reflected in share prices.
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Old 03-02-2009, 02:29 PM   #39
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When these come back into fashion, we will be in deep doo-doo.

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Old 03-02-2009, 02:31 PM   #40
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Hmmm....maybe if it's a real fund and not your checking account!
No it is a real fund, not just my checking account. The fund is called "Vanguard STAR Fund"!
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