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View Poll Results: Dow's approximate bottom will be:
6800+ ( we are at it now, up from here!) 18 11.11%
6500 20 12.35%
6250 10 6.17%
6000 29 17.90%
Below 6000 (Honey, sell silver on ebay! You like Fancy Feast?) 85 52.47%
Voters: 162. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-02-2009, 05:30 PM   #61
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It's actually 30, but your point is still valid.
Oops . . . thanks.
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Old 03-02-2009, 05:59 PM   #62
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What happens when the terrorists decide to test the new administration
They will talk them to death of course.
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Old 03-02-2009, 06:19 PM   #63
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Please make it stop!

5757.

Free
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Old 03-02-2009, 06:21 PM   #64
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It's actually 30, but your point is still valid.
Twenty of them went broke...
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Old 03-02-2009, 06:50 PM   #65
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I will also announce today that I am suspending all charitable donations and ask that others do the same. Many have enabled me to become wealthy and I was willing to share, but the rule changes declaring my deductions to be eliminated are untenable and clearly class warfare. If the governments intends to take care of everyone with some of my money, I cannot not stop them alone. But I can entrench in my own protectionism and stop supporting those I have helped in the past. I will not expand my business and I will give no more raises. Eventually, I will divest my business connections and become an isolationist. By positioning my assests in a protectionist fashion in non-taxable enitities I will voice my solitary view of silent non-support.
I would agree that it's terribly misguided, but I thought it was only a proposal, what is the current status or timeline?
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Old 03-02-2009, 07:11 PM   #66
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69, dudes!
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Old 03-02-2009, 08:06 PM   #67
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Over the next 6 months, I say around 5,000. But I won't be surprised to see 3,500 before all said and done.
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Old 03-02-2009, 08:22 PM   #68
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With all the smart folks on this forum I think of all the millions spent on education. Then I think that when it comes to the markets nobody knows nuttin!
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Old 03-02-2009, 08:26 PM   #69
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With all the smart folks on this forum I think of all the millions spent on education. Then I think that when it comes to the markets nobody knows nuttin!
Yeah but it does give the illusion of control while having the ability to analyze the market as it crashes.

I like uncle' method. heh heh.
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Old 03-02-2009, 10:36 PM   #70
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My number is 5317 - no reason why. Every day I think that it can't go lower and then it does. Most of the time, I am just numb to it, but every once in a while, I start to feel panicky, and wonder if I have ruined our retirement. I feel that it is too late to do anything now and I just need to let it ride. I just hope that it comes back within the next year or two and then I will become much more conservative. My DH is fast approaching retirement!
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Old 03-03-2009, 06:17 AM   #71
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Trombone Al must have read the same article I did: 6763 is my new guess (and I stole it from the supposed financial experts).
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Old 03-03-2009, 06:48 AM   #72
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I don't care what the number is, but rather when. - April 23, 2009. Unfortunately, it will then go sideways for months if not years. Fortunately, that will give everyone the opportunity to get in. Unfortunately, most of the money is already in.
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Old 03-03-2009, 08:26 AM   #73
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Fortunately, that will give everyone the opportunity to get in. Unfortunately, most of the money is already in.
With more than 3 trillion sitting in MM accounts....I don't think so.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/bu...d/11money.html
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Old 03-03-2009, 08:28 AM   #74
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I don't care what the number is, but rather when. - April 23, 2009. Unfortunately, it will then go sideways for months if not years. Fortunately, that will give everyone the opportunity to get in. Unfortunately, most of the money is already in.
There's a hell of a lot of money sitting it out waiting for governments and central banks to finally figure out what they're doing and how they're going to contain the damage. And there are also a LOT of people short in this market.

When said governments and central banks come up with something the market has some faith in, IMO, we'll see a violent rally -- but not before.
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Old 03-03-2009, 08:47 AM   #75
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...we'll see a violent rally...
There a boatload of money on the sidelines. No, make that a navy full of boatloads of money. I've heard $2 Trillion and more thrown around as the number, although I'm not sure how one determines what money is on the sideline and what money is just outside the market.

I keep going back to the technicians way of looking at things - why not, nothing else makes sense and I don't know anything about reading the entrails of chickens - to try and get some tiny bit of clarity here. My latest voodoo technical interest is Fibonacci retracement.

Note that I'm not espousing the theory, just tossing it out for discussion.

Anyway, current discussions and prognostications I follow elsewhere have discussed the potential for a Fibonacci retracement upward from 700-ish on the S&P, or, if it breaks that level going down, then from around 650. We're talking a quick, violent, and pretty massive upside - not back to where we were but close - 30% being the minimum. But it's generally seen as something that won't stick around for long.

And that last little bit is the one that has me wondering if this thing we're in right now might not have a bigger downside. Something like 1929 - 32 in which the market goes down about 50% (sound familiar?), then has a rally in which significant retracement takes place, followed by several years of a continual slide that goes past the previous low. Far enough past the previous low to make one fondly recall the days when we were down by only 50%.

I can deal with where we're at now. Don't like it - but I can deal. And I can handle a lengthy "L" shape on the recovery with an eventual, if very gradual, clawback upward. Like everyone else I've lost ground, years worth of it, but I'm still okay here and even a little lower. But the prospect of something like 1930-1936-ish is disturbing. '29 was bad, but the stuff that came later was worse.
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Old 03-03-2009, 09:47 AM   #76
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When said governments and central banks come up with something the market has some faith in, IMO, we'll see a violent rally -- but not before.
Love to hear your optimism! I really hope you are right about that violent rally.

I have no idea of what to expect, but naturally my fears are that the market will not see 10,000 again for years.

At least I won't be disappointed.
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Old 03-03-2009, 09:51 AM   #77
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Love to hear your optimism! I really hope you are right.

I have no idea of what to expect, but naturally my fears are that the market will not see 10,000 again for years.

At least I won't be disappointed.
I'm pretty sure that if the market hears a plan it thinks will eliminate the uncertainty about the banking and housing messes, a big rally is inevitable. of course, from these levels a big rally still leaves us way underwater. Even a 30-40% pop from here on the resolution of some uncertainty leaves us at around 9000 on the Dow and maybe 900 on the S&P. That might be the time I permanently reduce my allocation to stocks. In retrospect, I should have done it in early January when we were back into the 9000s.

As for Dow 10,000 -- I suspect your right. Maybe it's not relevant, but each time the Dow poked through and gained an extra digit -- whether hitting 100, 1000 or 10,000 -- it didn't hold for long and a massive bear market came and the Dow didn't recover that level for many years.
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Old 03-03-2009, 10:33 AM   #78
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I have no idea of what to expect, but naturally my fears are that the market will not see 10,000 again for years.
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As for Dow 10,000 -- I suspect your right. Maybe it's not relevant, but each time the Dow poked through and gained an extra digit -- whether hitting 100, 1000 or 10,000 -- it didn't hold for long and a massive bear market came and the Dow didn't recover that level for many years.
Lets see. If the markets overshoot on the downside as they did on the upside, and the folks at GMO are reasonably close with their valuations, then DOW “fair value” today is around 8200. (actually, the project total US large cap at that meager rate)

If it reaches fair value plus inflation of 3%, then it hits 10k in 7 years. Around 6 ˝% CGR

If it reaches fair value plus inflation plus real growth of 2%, then in 7 years it is at 11.5k. That’s about 8% CGR from today.

The GMO projections for “high quality” which has a large DOW component is much more optimistic.

W2R and ziggy, I find your posts thoughtful and well reasoned - both enjoyable and very helpful. Nonetheless, I'm siding with growth and opportunity - and that a few large, well run US blue chip businesses are going to continue to get hits and score runs when everyone else is striking out.
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Old 03-03-2009, 12:30 PM   #79
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Well we're down to 6767 so the 6800+ guys are going to have to turn in their crystal balls.

I'm going to toss in 5324 as my guess. I stopped contributing when they announced the second "stimulus bill" as it's more akin to stabbing someone to motivate them to run because it worked so well when you gave them a pinprick earlier.
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Old 03-03-2009, 12:40 PM   #80
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[quote=Bikerdude;790807]With more than 3 trillion sitting in MM accounts....I don't think so.


sideline money:
Capital Vandalism: Money on the sidelines?
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