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View Poll Results: Dow's approximate bottom will be:
6800+ ( we are at it now, up from here!) 18 11.11%
6500 20 12.35%
6250 10 6.17%
6000 29 17.90%
Below 6000 (Honey, sell silver on ebay! You like Fancy Feast?) 85 52.47%
Voters: 162. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-10-2009, 04:26 PM   #121
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Running man what is the second number after our predictions? For example I am listed at 5500 970?

FWIW, I really hope I am wrong in this poll, and right in the one I started a few months ago. Dow 12,200 at the end of the year.

I hope today puts some fear into the bears. If you try and time the market, and somehow we string two or three days like today in the week you could miss a 20% move.
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Old 03-10-2009, 04:31 PM   #122
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It means your guess is currently 970 below the current "bottom".
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Old 03-10-2009, 04:33 PM   #123
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Running man what is the second number after our predictions? For example I am listed at 5500 970?
Number of points off of being right from actual low
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Old 03-10-2009, 05:44 PM   #124
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Nice work, RunningMan!

So with today's market surge, we made back, what, a week of losses? Anyone think an memo from the Citigroup boss was a flimsy excuse? Seems like there are a lot of people looking for a reason to buy. I'd really like it if it traded sideways for 18 to 24 more months so I can buy some more at these prices.
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Old 03-10-2009, 05:48 PM   #125
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I'd really like it if it traded sideways for 18 to 24 more months so I can buy some more at these prices.
Careful what you wish for you young pun...er, whippersnapper!
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Old 03-11-2009, 11:09 AM   #126
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Results, since the bottom is now in until September except for one a small chance of a retest maybe falling 118 points lower than the low so far of 6470 here are the results ordered from low to high, some took 2 guesses. I am in favor of price is right rules!
Price is right rules, no way! And to those making multiple guesses, DQ them! Same for range guessers (or at least use the midpoint of their range)! Not that this interpretation would put me in the lead on this poll...
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Old 03-11-2009, 09:53 PM   #127
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I'd really like it if it traded sideways for 18 to 24 more months so I can buy some more at these prices.
I am tired of buying so much at sale prices. I changed DH's 401K last night, so that new contributions would go 100% into the Stable fund. I am letting the old money ride in the funds they were in, since I am hoping that the market comes back while we are still alive. I decided that we needed to have more cash, in case it doesn't.
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Old 04-01-2009, 03:26 PM   #128
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I thought I'd revive this thread with some articles that declare we have reached the bottom.

An interview last Saturday by Paul Merriman with columnist Paul Farrell.
FundAdvice.com - Sound Investing for March 27, 2009

You have to listen to half of the podcast before you get to the interview. Merriman calls him Dr. Doom, and is surprised when he states we've hit the bottom.

Farrell's Marketwatch article this week is a repetition of the podcast with more detail, especially around the point of bubble and bust.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/six-reasons-am-calling-bottom/story.aspx?guid={C7D85D3C-7008-4980-AE1E-47AD2565FBA7}

All of that aside, there is a great deal of substance to why we may be at the bottom provided by Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders in the article, "Gimmee Three Steps ..." on the Market Insight page:
Investing Strategy: Financial & Portfolio Management Strategies: Charles Schwab

Any takers for when this appears as a cover story for BusinessWeek, or Newsweek?

-- Rita
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Old 04-01-2009, 10:49 PM   #129
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March, 2012: 2700. And, it'll be Chinese water torture all the way there: periods of the Dow being down 2-300 points a week for months, then fast sucker's rallies up a thousand points; then, another ratchet down of 2-300 points/week, then another sucker's rally, then...

'Course, Dow 2700 won't matter to anyone really, as Earth will be hit by a huge asteroid in April, 2012.

Dr. Doom, indeed!

Buy TIPs.
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Old 04-01-2009, 11:24 PM   #130
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March, 2012: 2700. And, it'll be Chinese water torture all the way there: periods of the Dow being down 2-300 points a week for months, then fast sucker's rallies up a thousand points; then, another ratchet down of 2-300 points/week, then another sucker's rally, then...

'Course, Dow 2700 won't matter to anyone really, as Earth will be hit by a huge asteroid in April, 2012.

Dr. Doom, indeed!

Buy TIPs.
Mayans think it will end DEc 2012. Yeah so buy tips.
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Old 04-01-2009, 11:59 PM   #131
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Mayans think it will end DEc 2012. Yeah so buy tips.
Oh, I do hope they're wrong—I am aiming at semi-retirement in Jan 2013.
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Old 04-02-2009, 04:36 PM   #132
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'Course, Dow 2700 won't matter to anyone really, as Earth will be hit by a huge asteroid in April, 2012.

Buy TIPs.
Kinda reminds me of Al Sleet's weather report ('long about 5:40 min) in the attached.

But seriously folks (sorry George, wherever you are) I'm looking for a "sucker" recovery. That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Regarding the asteroids and Mayans: One day at a time, baby, one day at a time!

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Old 04-02-2009, 06:13 PM   #133
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I thought I'd revive this thread with some articles that declare we have reached the bottom.
Thanks Rita. These are all quite interesting. My attitude it that while we can easily say that stocks show this or that valuation by this or that metric, I don't know how one could say that The Bottom is in.

I believe that this almost has to be true, since the stock market and the world and US economies interact in various ways. Unless we know what will happen in the future, and how investors and the rest of the public will react to whatever happens, I don't know how we could know when or at what level a lasting bottom might form.

Humans are given to looking back and finding that whatever has happened was inevitable, due to "the deficit" or "too much debt" or whatever the cause du jour might be.

Not so, as is pretty well shown by how so many people are right once, then hit a long dry spell.

I think what is pretty solid is that the cheaper one buys a quality company, the less s/he will lose if the market goes down, and the more s/he will make if it should go up.

Ha
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Old 04-02-2009, 09:17 PM   #134
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Heard today on the local radio news that a poll shows that 27% of Americans think we've already hit the bottom. I think the number was 64% that thought we still have worse to come. I thought those numbers were interesting.

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Old 04-02-2009, 11:23 PM   #135
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Heard today on the local radio news that a poll shows that 27% of Americans think we've already hit the bottom. I think the number was 64% that thought we still have worse to come. I thought those numbers were interesting.

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Count me as one of those Mericans that doesn't know what the heck is going to happen.
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Old 04-02-2009, 11:39 PM   #136
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Count me as one of those Mericans that doesn't know what the heck is going to happen.
Which means that your investment decisions are probably made with a more open mind than those of us (like me) who "know"...!

My "gut" tells me we've a sickening drop ahead still, but all that means is I'm deer in the headlights (i.e. I'm scared to deploy the cash I've got on the sidelines, waiting for Godot the Bottom.) Interesting to see where the market opens tomorrow, after this FASB mark-to-market thing settles.

Dow futures are down at 7945 even as we speak.
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Old 04-03-2009, 12:46 PM   #137
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I think the number was 64% that thought we still have worse to come.
I would think this is a contrary indicator ... meaning that if 2/3s of shareholders have already acted on thier belief than the only direction left is UP.
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Old 04-03-2009, 01:05 PM   #138
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I would think this is a contrary indicator ... meaning that if 2/3s of shareholders have already acted on thier belief than the only direction left is UP.
This board has many members who profess bearishness, but continue heavily invested in stocks. So I am not sure that your idea can be counted on.

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Old 04-03-2009, 01:08 PM   #139
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I would think this is a contrary indicator ... meaning that if 2/3s of shareholders have already acted on thier belief than the only direction left is UP.
Or, the 2/3rds are going to be holding cash instead of investing, which means that, with low volume, the market will whipsaw around and scare them further, causing a new NEW low.

If I'm right with my completely WAG, I'll be back to make another prediction. If I'm wrong, I'll wait a few months until everyone forgets and then I'll return to make another WAG prediction.
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Old 04-03-2009, 01:21 PM   #140
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If I'm right with my completely WAG, I'll be back to make another prediction. If I'm wrong, I'll wait a few months until everyone forgets and then I'll return to make another WAG prediction.
Heh, heh, you know, eridanus, there are folks on this board who NEVER forget.
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