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Old 05-16-2013, 11:14 AM   #41
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I strongly recommend you start hanging out on the Boglehead's forum. Their advice is essentially: "No one, not even the so-called professionals, can accurately time the market, so don't even try. Create a plan that determines how much you should have in stocks vs. bonds vs. cash vs. alternate investments and then stick to it. If stocks have a huge sell off, rather than acting emotionally, pull our your plan and see what percent of stocks it calls for and rebalance until you're back at your regular amounts." The emotions are hard to overcome which is why have a real plan in advance is essential. I won't be shocked at all if stocks (or bonds for that matter) take a big swoon. And I already know how I'll react if/when that happens.

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Old 05-16-2013, 11:34 AM   #42
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Great comments. They really help. I am a member of the Boglehead forum. I like the idea of writing down my investment plan and referring to it when I feel I need to. I've gotten some great advice on asset allocation and what index funds to buy. As far as the comment of why do I want to be in stocks if it makes me crazy, the answer is I know over the long term, it's the best place for this money to grow. Now that I have a plan and start implementing it, I'll be committed to keeping it in the funds for the long term. I learned a tough lesson from 2008-2009. I won't pull out my money again. Experience is the best teacher.

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Old 05-16-2013, 12:21 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by jmzf1958 View Post
Thank you for the comments and suggestions. It's good to get different perspectives. I know this money has to go into the market if for no other reason than inflation, as was pointed out. I'm committed to putting it in index funds for the long run, keeping my expenses low, and dollar cost averaging over a period of time. I know once I start doing this, I'll stay the course.

Thanks for the very helpful ideas and encouragement.
For another perspective, we took a chunk out of stocks in Sept/Oct 2007 and paid off the house. Great timing, right? Even though we got out at a great time, looking back, I wish we would have kept the money in the market and just refinanced our mortgage instead.

I'd invest the money slowly, if that's more palatable.
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Old 05-16-2013, 06:01 PM   #44
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Common wisdom is it take roughly 30% equities to keep up with inflation, how about starting at 25% or 30% equities put in a diversified group of low cost index funds, or a single balanced. Put it in either dollar cost averaging or all at once, which ever way makes you more comfortable. Hopefully 30% is not too risky for you and you can at least not be going backwards sitting in cash. Adjust as needed in time as you get more comfortable, in either direction.
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Old 05-19-2013, 05:11 AM   #45
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Only do what you feel comfortable with. I am also very conservative and risk averse, avoiding the market. Many others here disagree, so you may hear bias. Which is fine.
Originally Posted by jmzf1958 View Post
Again, I'd like some advice on what I should do and why it makes sense to do it. I'm just really afraid of making another big mistake with my money. Thanks for any and all advice.
Very conservative with investments. Not ER'd yet, 48 years old. Please do not take anything I write or imply as legal, financial or medical advice directed to you. Contact your own financial advisor, healthcare provider, or attorney for financial, medical and legal advice.
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Old 05-19-2013, 05:58 AM   #46
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Depending on how you define the market (S&P, or vanguard total stock market) and when you start measuring the market goes up 9-12% a year of .75% to 1% per month.

Obviously the ride up is anything but smooth. In fact only about 20% does the market go up 8-12% in a year the rest of the time it can be up 25% or down 15% and sometime twice that much.

If you want to maximize your wealth you'd stick the money in market in Monday. If you to sleep better that by all means dollar cost average. I can pretty much guarantee that if you live for another 30 years you will see a least one 30% correction/bear market. (I honestly believe that 2008/2009 is really once in a life time opportunity/catastrophe unless you live to be a 100). The fallacy of waiting for the correction is neither you or I have no real idea if the bear market will happen tomorrow or when the S&P hits 3000.

I consider my self fully invested by I do have 8% of my IRA, sitting around in cash because I also timing the market, or more accurately a price points for a couple of specific companies.
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Old 05-19-2013, 06:15 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by obgyn65 View Post
Only do what you feel comfortable with. I am also very conservative and risk averse, avoiding the market. Many others here disagree, so you may hear bias. Which is fine.
Every view point is biased. I'd like to point out that "conservative" models at various sites (USAA, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc.) all have allocations to something like 20% in stock mutual funds. Of course someone could say those advisers are biased. However, there is a lot of data that points to conservative models of 20/80 or some variation close to that as being a responsible portfolio.
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Old 05-19-2013, 11:12 AM   #48
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A morning star plot of AGG, 10 yr, (includes dividends) looks like steady, non-volitile growth. I am eyeing for at least some of my $. has recently had a little pull back, timing looks good to me.
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Old 05-20-2013, 12:37 PM   #49
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Late to the thread and haven't read through it. To answer the OP, look at any sectors of the market that haven't participated in the recent rally. If you have a diversified portfolio, you probably own some of those sectors already. There's nothing wrong with adding to them, even if doing so temporarily puts you out of balance.

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