Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Stock Allocations: Looking for the next Bull - Need your Advice
Old 10-11-2008, 03:51 AM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
Stock Allocations: Looking for the next Bull - Need your Advice

I am looking at the carnage and thinking now is the time to invest (or very soon).

Since I am near ER (in 3 years)... I am not going to sell my fixed and invest in stocks with that money because I would have to delay ER.... No one knows how long it will take for the stock market to recover. The last time it took 7 years for the DOW and S&P to hit the same level (not including inflation).

However, I have been rebalancing my equity holdings (mostly in indexes) to get a little more international exposure and figure now might be a good time to do so... but perhaps there are better moves.

International Stocks did great the last several years, so did Reits... But looking forward, things could be different.


My question to the forum is: What Markets (domestic or Foreign) and or Capitalization Size (Mega, Large, Mid-cap, Small-cap, etc.)... or for that matter Sector (financial, energy, retail, etc..) do you think will blast out of the bear and lead the next Bull?
__________________

__________________
chinaco is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-11-2008, 08:17 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,431
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco View Post
I am looking at the carnage and thinking now is the time to invest (or very soon).

Since I am near ER (in 3 years)... I am not going to sell my fixed and invest in stocks with that money because I would have to delay ER.... No one knows how long it will take for the stock market to recover. The last time it took 7 years for the DOW and S&P to hit the same level (not including inflation).

However, I have been rebalancing my equity holdings (mostly in indexes) to get a little more international exposure and figure now might be a good time to do so... but perhaps there are better moves.

International Stocks did great the last several years, so did Reits... But looking forward, things could be different.


My question to the forum is: What Markets (domestic or Foreign) and or Capitalization Size (Mega, Large, Mid-cap, Small-cap, etc.)... or for that matter Sector (financial, energy, retail, etc..) do you think will blast out of the bear and lead the next Bull?
One stock. BUD. Enough said.
__________________

__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 08:58 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
bigla's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Mt. Pleasant
Posts: 138
Yes
__________________
Retired early and loving it.
bigla is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 09:07 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
this is my allocation of mutual funds - excluding cash
8.50% Value Index 9.50% Wellesley Income 8.75% Emerging Markets Stocks 19.00% High Yield Corp 3.50% Reit Index Fund 20.25% FTSE all world Ex Us 9.00% Mid Cap Value Indes 9.75% Small Cap Value 6.50% Seclect Nat Resources 5.25% Emerging Bonds 100.00%

I haven't come to my final plan for future investing.
I am thinking of puttin $ into high yield and wellesly then taking the dividends from the bonds and investing them in the equities.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 09:35 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
After the Tech bubble popped the tech sector has still not recovered fully... and the NASDAQ will probably not get back to its former high for years. After the tech bubble, it seemed that foreign stocks did very well (possibly because of the weak U$D). Small caps seemed to perform really well also. Large caps crawled back to their former high.


Any insights would be helpful. For example... have foreign stocks had their day in the sun? Will the U$D recover and Domestic stocks be king? What % would you recommend in foreign stocks vs domestic and Foreign Bonds vs Domestic?
__________________
chinaco is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 09:46 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Chinano,

Now would be a good time to buy (average in) foreign stocks if you have a long term plan- several years. They have been beaten up & the dollar is strong - buys more. Also, foreign countries have fast growing populations and manufacturing will continue to move out of USA and Western Europe.

I wrote this in another post:
Here is good news - Foreign travel should become less expensive.
The dollar should get stronger - interest rates are now not in sync.
The US Fed rate was lower than others - dollar weak
The others will be lowing their interest rates - dollar gets strong
The recession will end in the USA first - fed will raise rate - dollar gets stronger because the others will not at the same time as the US - they don't want to risk derailing their recovery.
Buy the euro when it is close to parity with the dollar - they will begin to raise rates - and the dollar rates will remain constant.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 10:57 AM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DblDoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
My crystal ball remains cloudy so I just continue to buy a diverse set of index funds covering all the bases. While they are highly correlated currently as we come out of this nose dive they won't be.

DD
__________________
DblDoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 01:24 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,862
I've been thinking small and foreign would be best, since that's what I've had to rebalance into lately. However, it seems likely that foreign had run up a little more than US stocks prior to the bear, and I would think the US might lead a recovery and the dollar will strengthen.

I'm a little overbalanced in a few assets due to the limitations of DW's 401k, but otherwise I'm sticking to the normal AA as closely as I can.
__________________
Animorph is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 01:48 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Oil is a buy now. So are consumer durables (PG, BUD, KFT, etc)

Careful with international, I am trimming my exposure there other than Brazil.......
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 06:15 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,020
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
Careful with international, I am trimming my exposure there other than Brazil.......
So you're going for a Brazilian on everything other than your Brazil?
__________________
Marquette is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 08:31 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
tech always leads and the others follow later on
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2008, 02:36 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
I am a little overweight in Domestic Large Caps.

It looks like the Domestic large caps are holding up better than international indexes I am in (by a few %). But I suspect the difference in valuation is because of the strengthening U$D.

Still as the U$D strengthens, I view it as a good time to invest internationally. However, one could have made a similar observation about the tech sector after the last bear. Techs have done ok but except for a few bright spots it was only so so.

The effect of artificially low (Fed) interest rates (for years) has caused investors to chase returns.

Do you think that one the economy corrects the Fed will raise rate to a more normal level and not keep them depressed?
__________________
chinaco is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2008, 08:30 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
jIMOh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Milford, OH
Posts: 2,085
We use sector funds in my wife's Roth and do our best that the allocation mirrors what is everywhere else (45% large cap, 15% mid, 15% small, 15% foreign large and 10% foreign small/emerging markets).

In wife's Roth, all 25% is in emerging markets, including a 10% stake in Africa/Mid East.
In wife's Roth we are overweighting the purchase of financials and also overweighting tech. We still DCA into other sectors too (Healthcare, Energy, Value, Growth). Financial and tech have 4X the deposit amounts of the other DCA sectors.
__________________

__________________
Light travels faster than sound. That is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak. One person's stupidity is another person's job security.
jIMOh is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
No Bull? Vincenzo Corleone FIRE and Money 1 03-05-2008 09:17 AM
Bull Market runnerr FIRE and Money 21 06-02-2007 02:17 PM
New Bull Market Bikerdude FIRE and Money 17 04-21-2007 02:52 PM
The Gold Bull Market johnlw FIRE and Money 38 05-14-2006 06:03 PM
More Bull To Come baanista Other topics 6 11-23-2004 05:13 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:54 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.