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Old 12-10-2008, 01:14 PM   #1
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Stock Market General Comments Thread

We've never had a thread devoted to comments on the current ups and downs of the stock market -- perhaps this will be useful.

I'm currently in that stupid state of mind that hopes that stocks will go down or stay even until I rebalance in January. That is, I'm cheering downturns, although I know they are not in my best interest.
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Old 12-10-2008, 01:17 PM   #2
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Sure Ill go next

It sucks.
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Old 12-10-2008, 01:17 PM   #3
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Yikes...(from CNN Money)
8 really, really scary predictions - Nouriel Roubini (1) - FORTUNE

tmm
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Old 12-10-2008, 01:25 PM   #4
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I can't wait for Roubini's 15 minutes to be up.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 12-10-2008, 01:34 PM   #5
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Yeah I read that one too this morning... Yuck!

But at least I am seeing more green in my Quicken portfolio. Almost everything I bought since 10/10 has made money. And since my portfolio is tilted toward income production, December is a great month for watching the bennies roll in (and being reinvested while share prices are still low).

As for the market as a whole, I can't wait for the recovery, but secretly I kinda hope for a few more down months. I am running out of cash, but I have 2 big lump sums coming up and I hope I'll be able to invest them while the market is still down.
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Old 12-10-2008, 01:52 PM   #6
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I'm still early in the accumulation phase. Hoping for sideways markets for a few years so I can buy cheap. I think big downturns in the market from here would make earning an income increasingly difficult given the industries from which our household derives our livelihood. Flat markets (but volatile day to day) would keep the economic outlooks positive enough to hopefully allow the paychecks to continue to flow.

I'm also hoping correlation between asset classes will decrease, to give me some gains from rebalancing.
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Old 12-10-2008, 02:02 PM   #7
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I'm still early in the accumulation phase. Hoping for sideways markets for a few years so I can buy cheap. I think big downturns in the market from here would make earning an income increasingly difficult given the industries from which our household derives our livelihood.
I think your statement is probably true for ALL who are still working.....


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I'm also hoping correlation between asset classes will decrease, to give me some gains from rebalancing.
That would be nice......
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Old 12-10-2008, 02:14 PM   #8
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John Madden likes to go on and on about smash mouth defense but:

I think it sucks - er sort of.

So I take this no 2 pencil, the back of an envelope - 3% SEC yield of a 1 mil portfolio when the market was up = 30k. Down to 800k at 3.9% = 31.2 k.

Whoopee - I got a raise?

Nope - mentally it still sucks.

heh heh heh - 15th yr of retirement distribution - agile, mobile and hostile. Plus a tad grumpy - WITH a Curmudgeon certificate.

P.S. Psst Wellesley lest we forget.
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Old 12-10-2008, 02:17 PM   #9
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I think your statement is probably true for ALL who are still working.....
I swear that our clients are making go/no-go decisions on major long term projects with one eye on the Dow Jones real time intra-day quote. If we have another week or two of solid market increases I fully expect to be the busiest guy ever at work.

I think many other industries are less sensitive to consumer/business sentiment and the current negativity.
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Old 12-10-2008, 02:23 PM   #10
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I swear that our clients are making go/no-go decisions on major long term projects with one eye on the Dow Jones real time intra-day quote. If we have another week or two of solid market increases I fully expect to be the busiest guy ever at work.
Maybe. But I've said it before and I've said again: the decline and falling of DB pensions for most folks has made a lot more people directly sensitive to the fortunes of the market than in past downturns.

So I think bear markets are much more likely to weigh negatively on consumer sentiment than they used to, which will just make the economic results worse. Rinse, lather, repeat...
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Old 12-10-2008, 02:34 PM   #11
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I've always loved rollercoasters....my breath gets taken away, but I always get it back....well, so far.
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Old 12-10-2008, 03:54 PM   #12
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I've always loved rollercoasters....my breath gets taken away, but I always get it back....well, so far.
I was thinking of Forrest Gumpisms (ok not a word) and came up with this one.

The stock market is like a roller coaster it is always scariest on way down.
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Old 12-10-2008, 06:06 PM   #13
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Just met with advisor.....he reminded me that stock market recoveries always begin while the recession is still ongoing. He had a great chart.....and, the average recovery in the first year is always in the 30% + range. Something to look forward to.
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Old 12-10-2008, 06:08 PM   #14
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Just met with advisor.....he reminded me that stock market recoveries always begin while the recession is still ongoing. He had a great chart.....and, the average recovery in the first year is always in the 30% + range. Something to look forward to.
Maybe its different this time...
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Old 12-10-2008, 08:18 PM   #15
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John Madden likes to go on and on about smash mouth defense but:
Yeah, he would know. I wonder if it'd involve some sort of "criminal element"...

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Maybe its different this time...
So it's not just me?
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Old 12-10-2008, 09:07 PM   #16
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Seeking general comments?

We're up 20% over the last three weeks . . . it's a regular bull market.
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Old 12-10-2008, 10:09 PM   #17
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I wish I had not seen the 8 really scary predictions, and No Nords, it is not just you. Damned if you do and damned if you don't. I am not going to bail out of equities, I have lost too much to sell them now. DOW at 4000? I can't even imagine.....
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Old 12-10-2008, 10:47 PM   #18
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Seeking general comments?

We're up 20% over the last three weeks . . . it's a regular bull market.
I had been thinking of starting a thread about this. Do y'all think we've seen the bottom? Or just some of the fits and starts that will be going on for a number of months/years?

I saw in the article that Dr. Doom said "For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market." That doesn't mean much to me, because he wasn't ever in the stock market anyway. But I think we're just sort of on a small rise toward the end of the year, but facing more (hopefully smaller) drops in the future. I'm not an analyst, I just don't see how the complete lack of good news can result in a market recovery going forward from now, without more gloom first.
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Old 12-10-2008, 11:30 PM   #19
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I saw in the article that Dr. Doom said "For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market."
Is Dr. Doom our favorite Eastern European party animal and host of girls some think pretty and some think not?

Over the years there have been a number of holders of the Dr. Doom title. Currently there are little Nouri and Marc Faber; in the 70s there was Swiss Franz Pick, the "bonds are certificates of confiscation" guy. The 80s belonged to The Twin Towers of Doom, Henry Kaufman and Albert Wojnilower. Or perhaps they were the Drs. Doom and Gloom.

Me, I am just Dr. Demento.

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Old 12-11-2008, 08:45 AM   #20
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These folks cannot afford to be positive - too much career risk. IOW, if they are negative and wrong, no problem, because everyone else is. If they are positive and wrong, they stand out as wrong and suffer career risk (Grantham's term).

Roubini et al don't really reflect possible future actions to offset the negative economy, like the large fiscal spend that PE Obama has spoken about.

Another view of the US economy is

We are in a negative spiral, so unemployment will continue to rise and profits fall until it stops. 94% of the workforce is employed - and this may fall to 90%.

People with steady incomes (salary or pension) will benefit because the sharp decline in commodity prices will have a slight negative impact on consumer inflation.

The fed/treasury action till now has been focused on financial system stability, not economic recovery

The new Obama gov't will pass one spending project after another until employment picks up again.

Lots of middle-class wealth has been destroyed and will need to be replaced.

When employment picks up, the savings rate will increase to start to pay back down the gov't spending and shore up the retirement savings.

The greatest economic suffering will be in China, Japan and Germany - the three biggest exporters to the US.

The US economy will outperform EAFE because US labor productivity will grow faster. The loss of wealth here will be made up more quickly because people will just "work it off' - postpone retirement or go back to work.

The "ownership society" will lean slightly back toward a more balanced mix of owning and working.

I think things will get worse - but they will seem and feel much worse because of the constant negative feedback. Then suddenly it will change and the sun will shine again.

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