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Old 04-10-2011, 10:43 PM   #41
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Good point!

I spent a few minutes on the Web, but could not find a graph showing total return of the Nikkei 225 over the same period. However, the yield has been fairly low, like under 1% in 2007. It is currently about 2%. So, added up over the past 20 years, it would not make much of a dent to compensate for the drop from 40,000 in 1990 down to under 10,000 today. And then, we would have to factor in the inflation effect over that time too.

Bleak, bleak, bleak! I shall post another gloomy song if I find a suitable one.
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Old 04-10-2011, 10:45 PM   #42
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Wonder what the stock market will do when the next political battle ...which is...about increasing the debt ceiling comes front and center. We hit the current $14.212 trillion dollar debt ceiling May 8th. Emergency measures will take it to July 8th. Republicans have vowed not to vote to increase the ceiling without other spending cuts. Anyone think ....just the "implied" threat of a U.S. debt crisis and the political wrangling .....will have an affect of the markets. Or will the markets shrug it off...like it has shrug everything else off this year.? I say "implied" threat...because they will NOT let this happen. (I pray anyway.....) However....it will be used politically.
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Old 04-10-2011, 10:56 PM   #43
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Have you ever heard or observed toddlers in modes of parallel play? That's what some of these threads remind me of. Of course, all the toddlers are cute, especially yours.
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Old 04-10-2011, 11:33 PM   #44
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As a gloomy and grouchy person myself (my wife often tells me this), I like to take a irreverent approach in my e-Mails to personal friends as well as my posts here to counter my pessimistic nature. Besides, we geezers all yearn to be young again, whether we admit it or not. But to go back all the way to toddler years? My, I don't remember my toddler years, do you?

The earliest memory I can place unquestionably was when I was 4, as I described here.
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Old 04-11-2011, 06:35 AM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post

Here is a short interview with a guy who sees it as I do, fund manager Donald Yacktman.
Kiplinger.com

Here's another, Ha.

Hold, Don't Fold - Barrons.com
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Old 04-11-2011, 06:58 AM   #46
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Quote:
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Wonder what the stock market will do when the next political battle ...which is...about increasing the debt ceiling comes front and center. We hit the current $14.212 trillion dollar debt ceiling May 8th. Emergency measures will take it to July 8th. Republicans have vowed not to vote to increase the ceiling without other spending cuts. Anyone think ....just the "implied" threat of a U.S. debt crisis and the political wrangling .....will have an affect of the markets. Or will the markets shrug it off...like it has shrug everything else off this year.? I say "implied" threat...because they will NOT let this happen. (I pray anyway.....) However....it will be used politically.
If a meaningful agreement on deficit reduction is achieved then I think it becomes very bullish for stocks. Meaningful means to me that spending is cut across the board, tax code changes are implemented, primarily corporate tax rules. I also think that they need to give corporations one last gift, a tax holiday on the corporate profits sitting in foreign accounts that if they spent these funds in the US would produce some meaningful job growth.
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Old 04-12-2011, 05:46 AM   #47
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Blackrock CEO interview... he says:


  • The stock market is fairly priced
  • Oil prices could be a problem.. a wildcard
  • QE2 wind down is priced in the market. Bias will be toward higher rates, but rates will not go too high unless inflation moves up and persists.



BlackRock CEO: Stocks are undervalued - Video - Business News
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Old 04-12-2011, 07:26 AM   #48
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Valuation fears aside, there are some really compelling values floating around at present. Go sift through the market and you can find stupidly cheap stocks without trying that hard.
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Old 04-12-2011, 07:46 AM   #49
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Equities currently overvalued? Don't know (and really don't care ).

The equity portion of DW/my joint portfolio has risen a few points above our AA target, while my retirement income cash bucket has fallen just below its minimum holding of 3 years gross income target.

I sold equities last week (same thing I did late last year, for bonds - due to GNMA "overperformance") to add to cash, and bring me back to the mid-point of my 3-4 year gross income cash target.

IMHO, it's a bit easier when you've retired and already hit your "number". In most cases, you no longer have to swing for the moon, but rather protect what you have, while insuring you have enough cash/income to get you over the next market "hiccup", regardless of what it may be...
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Old 04-13-2011, 05:27 AM   #50
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Well, I am far from retired and trying to protect my returns from the last 2 years .

The stuff I own and what has been on my radar, for the most part, is fully valued IMO. I am at the point where I question whether I should continue to hold some equities I bought at bargain prices & seem fully valued but have great businesses (and growing dividends). I trimmed a tiny portion just to see the prices go much higher (story of my life).

Seems to be more downside than upside at this point but I have been saying that for a while now. I follow LA based FPA funds and their commentary. Their chief investment guy is calling for another crisis related to our government finances in 2-5 years & he has a pretty good track record (a bit early at times but often right).
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