Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-24-2004, 07:13 AM   #41
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

The people who founded this country got it right.
The politicians always have a "solution", but government keeps growing and things keep getting worse IHMO. The Republicans are no better. God save us from the politicians, in all their forms and guises.

JG
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-24-2004, 07:30 AM   #42
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 214
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:
When the masses wake up, there will be a politician to offer a solution. *
Hey Cut, one wonders what your preferred "solution" would be?
__________________

__________________
RockMiner is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-24-2004, 07:42 AM   #43
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:
Hey Cut, one wonders what your preferred "solution" would be?
There has to be a balance. And we have swung too far to the right *like the 1920's. You cannot keep screwing the middle class without repercussions.

A Herbert Hoover style depression, can turn things the other way pretty fast.

I'm all for capitalism, but right now the country is running a 'false economy' on many levels'. Just borrowing money for Tax Cuts mostly for the rich that don't need them, and not cutting any programs. We all know it can't continue.

We're headed in the wrong direction. How far do you want to go
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-24-2004, 08:07 AM   #44
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:

There has to be a balance. And we have swung too far to the right like the 1920's. You cannot keep screwing the middle class without repercussions...
Agreed. I think of it as riding a bicycle. Sometimes I must steer a little to the right, then a little to the left to stay on the road.

However, the two major political parties are becoming too much alike in certain respects and neither is doing a good job of representing my interests.
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-24-2004, 08:29 AM   #45
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:

There has to be a balance. And we have swung too far to the right like the 1920's. You cannot keep screwing the middle class without repercussions.

A Herbert Hoover style depression, can turn things the other way pretty fast.

I'm all for capitalism, but right now the country is running a 'false economy' on many levels'. Just borrowing money for Tax Cuts mostly for the rich that don't need them, and not cutting any programs. We all know it can't continue.

We're headed in the wrong direction. How far do you want to go
I think we will go much farther than most would want because there is so much misinformation out there. Like the survey I mentioned a few days ago in the WSJ, many people believe that Medicare covers nursing homes and that they are eligible for full social security before age 65. I also know at least anecdotally (is that a word?) that a number of people don't see a health insurance crisis because they believe that even if you have no insurance, you will get treated anyway. Not true! Sure emergency rooms have to treat emergencies but emergency rooms don't give you chemotherapy and don't dispense drugs that are necessary to your life.

Also, we value self reliance so much in this country that failure to be successful is considered a failing that is your fault. So who the heck cares what happens to you then, since after all you brought it on yourself.
__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-24-2004, 09:33 AM   #46
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:
... but artificial preservation of an economic way of life for one class (i.e. the middle class) is contrary to the capitalist model.
It's interesting to hear most of you talking about the US as a Captitalist nation. In reality we're about as Capitalist as we are Socialist. The over the past 60 years the Capitalist brand has been marketed as an alternative to Socialism. In reality we are both.

If we were anything close to Capitalist we wouldn't have the government meddling in social engineering or financial/monetary policy. One obvious example is the child tax credit. When GW nominated the new head of the Dept. of Ag. I thought why do we have that? We don't have a Dept. of High Tech? Our 'Capitalist' government is in the business of relulating industries and in many cases this results in less choice and competition (for examples, medical insurance, and prescription drugs, and the medical industry.)

Read this list of federal government agencies:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/government...-agencies.html

AMTRAC? Bureau of Transportation Statistics? Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)? Farm Credit Administration (FCA)? Federal Mediation & Conciliation Service? Federal Railroad Administration? Ginnie Mae? Legal Services Corporation?

There's also the "wars for oil".

And then there are the big expensive social programs: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

I don't think any argument against change because it goes against a 'capitalist model' holds credibility. We're very far from a capitalist nation.
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-24-2004, 09:54 AM   #47
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:
Jay_Gatsby wrote:
... but artificial preservation of an economic way of life for one class (i.e. the middle class) is contrary to the capitalist model.
I don't see artificial preservation of a wealthy class of a few thousand people as particularly praiseworthy or helpful.

Quote:
Also, we value self reliance so much in this country that failure to be successful is considered a failing that is your fault. So who the heck cares what happens to you then, since after all you brought it on yourself.
So true but I think it's more of a ruse than a national "value". It's just a way of blowing people off and ignoring the inherent shorfalls of the economy. It's like religion was used to neutralize people in the middle ages and keep them in their place.


Obviously The Rich are rich with Big Government as a partner

The rich don't get rich on their own as anyone who has ev. They do it by co-opting the working class and
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-24-2004, 11:38 AM   #48
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Class envy is very unattractive.

JG
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-24-2004, 09:35 PM   #49
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:
Class envy is very unattractive.

JG
So is the mindless spewing of knee-jerk Republican dogma. *
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-25-2004, 07:30 AM   #50
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......


Salaryguru screwed up grammatically, but we all know what he meant. Also, Mikey basically thinks my posts
are trite recitations of Republican dogma too, as far as
I can tell. I reject both accusations. I typically support
Republicans only because they are USUALLY
farher right than Dems on the issues I care about. Otherwise,
I dislike them and the Dems with equal fervor. Think of me as a Libertarian martini with a pro-life twist.

I am now going to enjoy my day. Essays, insightful
commentary, and pithy observations will continue
tomorrow

JG
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-27-2004, 11:39 AM   #51
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:
Think of me as a Libertarian martini with a pro-life twist.
Is this the 'twist' you are referring to?

'Abortion is a moral right--which should be left to the sole discretion of the woman involved; morally, nothing other than her wish in the matter is to be considered. Who can conceivably have the right to dictate to her what disposition she is to make of the functions of her body?' --Ayn Rand

this too..
http://capmag.com/article.asp?ID=2404
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-27-2004, 02:49 PM   #52
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Nope! I understand the various positions. For me,
abortion is murder. That's it. And, I am not even religious. I accept that life begins at conception.

JG
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-28-2004, 04:31 AM   #53
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

JG, you remind me of a couple of my employees. They don't want rules to apply to them and believe they are somehow exempt. However, they have a list of rules they believe should apply to everyone else.
__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-28-2004, 04:48 AM   #54
Full time employment: Posting here.
bruce1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Hagersville
Posts: 793
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

I used to be pro abortion. No more. I've seen ladies regretting having an abortion five or ten years after. By regretting I mean consumed with guilt to the point of not being able to function.

Besides you can't have human life without conception then it follows that life begins at conception and further that abortion is murder.

The only question I have is do you take a life to save a life in the case that the mother will die as a result of the pregnancy.

Oh yes I have only been in a Church a few times in the last twenty years and that was for weddings or funerals.

Bruce
__________________
I wish I was half as good as my dog thinks I am!
bruce1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-28-2004, 05:25 AM   #55
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Not so Martha! That would be hypocritical. I would
prefer for the government to stay the hell out of my life
(and yours) to the largest extent possible. The best government is the least government IMHO. That said,
I don't want them telling you what to do any more than
me. That doesn't change my position on abortion though. Here's the deal. It's interesting to talk about
what we would prefer, but we must live or die in the
world as it is. People ask me how I can take money from
the government (SS for example) feeling as I do.
It's easy. First, it's my money. Second, even if it wasn't
I would take all I could get as they are going to waste
it anyway. The main point though, is that I have very
strong opinons on almost everything. That does not
mean I want more "rules" to force you
(or anyone else) to do it my way. I am just exercising
my First Amendent rights while I still have them.

Clear as mud?

JG
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-28-2004, 07:55 AM   #56
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 768
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:
By regretting I mean consumed with guilt to the point of not being able to function.
Minors are not even allowed to buy alcohol, because they are considered too young to make sensible decisions with regard to such things. Yet in some places they are allowed to make such life altering decisions without their parents even being notified. Young girls don't always realize what they are doing. People are desinged to bond emotionally with their children, and protect them. This emotional bond can be much stronger than many young girls realize it will be. Some young women can really hurt themselves by killing their children.
__________________
Michael is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-28-2004, 10:11 AM   #57
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:
Not so Martha! That would be hypocritical. I would
prefer for the government to stay the hell out of my life
(and yours) to the largest extent possible. The best government is the least government IMHO. That said,
I don't want them telling you what to do any more than
me. That doesn't change my position on abortion though. . . . The main point though, is that I have very
strong opinons on almost everything. That does not
mean I want more "rules" to force you
(or anyone else) to do it my way. I am just exercising
my First Amendent rights while I still have them.

Clear as mud?
I know we are all treading on very dangerous ground here and I am not going to get involved in any moral argument. But John, are you saying that you personally believe life begins at conception thus any voluntary pregnancy termination after that day is murder, (even taking a morning after pill) but, you don't want more rules to force people to do things your way or anyone elses' way, so it nevertheless wouldn't be a crime to have an abortion? I am curious not because of the moral issues involved but the libertarian philisophical issues.

__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-28-2004, 02:00 PM   #58
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Hi Martha. "Dangerous ground" indeed..............

Without getting into the "morning after pill" argument
(splitting hairs exceedingly fine), I can see both sides of the issue. I believe life begins at conception and so, termination of that life is "murder". I did not always feel this way. Anyway, I do not want the
government forcing women to do anything.
That would be the greater evil IMHO. So, Ayn Rand
and I agree that the government should stay out of it,
but disagree on the moral implications.

JG
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-28-2004, 03:48 PM   #59
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 147
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Geez, is this a great Board or what!. Start a thread on stock market valuation and end up squabbling about immigration, the economic fate of the nation and abortion all at the same time. Wow.

Getting back to market valuation for just a minute, this really is the basic investment question isnt it? When is a good time to invest? When is a good time to steer clear?

I go back to my old finance textbook to wrestle around with this issue. Managerial Finance Weston and Brigham 2nd Edition 1966. Things were different in those days.
Those guys preached valuing DIVIDENDS. Heres a quote for you from Appendix A to Chapter 12 A Discussion of the Theory of Valuing Common Stocks:

It will be shown that dividends, and only dividends, go into the calculation of the intrinsic value of common stocks held as investments.

They spend a lot of time expounding different formulas for growth in earnings and DIVIDENDS vs no growth in earnings and DIVIDENDS vs super normal growth in earnings and DIVIDENDS.

Bottom line is you need an estimate of the holding period, the future flow of dividends, and a capitalization rate.

Now we can throw some numbers at this but any way you shake it the S&P 500 is way overvalued relative to any reasonable holding period ( eg., your remaining expected lifetime), future dividend flow and any sensible capitalization rate.

I think this is why Warren Buffet and Bill Gross are not loading up on the S&P 500.


__________________
"Remember, if you come this way, don't take no shortcuts and hurry along as fast as you can." (Virginia Reed, Age 12, Donner Party Survivor, 1847)
Donner is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......
Old 12-28-2004, 08:03 PM   #60
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 768
Re: Stock Market Valuations and Entry Point.......

Quote:
Those guys preached valuing DIVIDENDS.
The S&P doesn't generate enough dividends to support the majority of retirees, which is what it is now being asked to do. The yield could go lower yet.
__________________

__________________
Michael is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:59 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.