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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 06:10 PM   #21
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Re: Stock Market Woes

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Originally Posted by Laurence
Show off! My entire portfolio is your petty cash box! :P

BTW, thanks for the tip on VTV last year, made 13.5% over an 11 month period!
Still got it?
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 06:11 PM   #22
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Hey wab - remember when I told you to buy 5,000 shares of Target at 54.50?
You ignored me of course.....didn't you....?

I think now is definitely a good time!

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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 06:11 PM   #23
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by DanTien
How much deeper until you thinks it ok....
Deeper than this.

Ha - Dont understand your question.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 06:21 PM   #24
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Just added up the damage - down 1.6% for the day. Not too bad for a ~100% equities portfolio on a really bad day.

Surprisingly, the emerging markets fund and the small cap value fund both helped limit losses today. Diversification was good to me today.

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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 06:21 PM   #25
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
Still got it?
Yeah, I got it right -YEAAAAKKK!!!- Make that 9% (GULP!) *

Yes, I'm still holding it....
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 06:36 PM   #26
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Re: Stock Market Woes

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Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
Deeper than this.
Send me a message when the time comes. Thanks.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 06:39 PM   #27
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Re: Stock Market Woes

The diversification in my port didn't do squat. VG total international was down-2.68% and EM was down -1.45%. Oh well. I'm still sitting on some cash, too, and about 6 years of living expenses in CD's. It's still kind of painful to watch though.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 06:46 PM   #28
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Me, I'm buying, I'm years (and years) from retirement, so I'm not sweating it, but those of you who are retired, even with all your vast knowledge of how the markets work, and historical testing with Firecalc, must find these times a little trying. Heck, if you have a $1,000,000 portfolio and the market dropped 4% this week, you just watched 40k disapear, a year's SWR down the tubes!
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 06:56 PM   #29
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Re: Stock Market Woes

How about a bit more perspective?* It was obviously not a good day for stocks, but one day does not a market make.* For the more "active" portion of my portfolio I'm showing:

today: -1.70%
1 wk: -3.31%
1 mo: +.44%
3 mo: +2.52%
12 mo: +21.43%

could be a buying opportunity! ( or maybe not yet? )
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 06:59 PM   #30
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by DanTien
Hey wab - remember when I told you to buy 5,000 shares of Target at 54.50?
You ignored me of course.....didn't you....?*

I think now is definitely a good time!*
Well, I didn't completely ignore you. * I at least looked at their numbers. * It does look a bit better now, but still not cheap. * WMT looks about the same or better. * Which do you think will do better in the coming recession?

I liked the recent news about WMT -- the rising Yuan was putting pressure on the margins of their Chinese suppliers, so they asked WMT if they could raise their prices. * WMT said no. *
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 07:20 PM   #31
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Re: Stock Market Woes

My GTC order for the Emerging Market "Viper" (VWO) executed this morning then promptly went down. I'll probably regret it, but I wanted some exposure to Emerging Markets and set the price 8% below last week's high.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 08:24 PM   #32
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Re: Stock Market Woes

These past few days have made me feel better about carrying puts. We'll see going forward, but if things continue in this vein I will soon roll down a strike and take a nice bit of change out. My remaining oil shares have taken a big hit. However, when it comes to oil I am a lifer, so I don't want to distract myself with a lot of trading attempts. Near term prices will be volatile. Long term, we will be paying more for crude.

IMHO, of course.*

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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 08:35 PM   #33
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
However, when it comes to oil I am a lifer, so I don't want to distract myself with a lot of trading attempts. Near term prices will be volatile. Long term, we will be paying more for crude.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 08:38 PM   #34
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
get a grip ... the S&P is down by about 4% from recent highs, and still positive YTD. Hardly a blood bath
Look at what that says. Down 4%, but still up for the year, though not by much.

In other words, the S&P was up only about 5% YTD. What has happened to perspective that 5% has become irrational exuberance? It's only 5%. Last year was 5% so it's not like that is tacked onto a 30% 2005 year. It's a total of 10ish% over 17 months what we really want to call an absurd bubble?

It's mostly random and none of this means anything, but what are people thinking when, after the enormous numbers of the 90's, these kinds of numbers look scary high?
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 09:11 PM   #35
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Re: Stock Market Woes

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Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy
Ed, I can't decode your message. But whether you agree or disagree, an interesting take on volatility in crude prices comes from Emeritus Professor of Geology at Princeton, Ken Deffeyes. He asserts that volatility (up and down) is characteristic of physical systems nearing capacity. And that we might expect violent upward and downward price perturbations as the production cushion gets more and more strained.

Anyway, thatís my story, and Iím sticking to it.*

Ha
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 09:12 PM   #36
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
... WMT looks about the same or better. Which do you think will do better in the coming recession?
TGT will outperform WMT from now on recession or not. You have my persoanal guarantee!
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 09:26 PM   #37
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
an interesting take on volatility in crude prices comes from Emeritus Professor of Geology at Princeton, Ken Deffeyes. He asserts that volatility (up and down) is characteristic of physical systems nearing capacity. And that we might expect violent upward and downward price perturbations as the production cushion gets more and more strained.
Take it from Professor Wab. Volatility is a characteristic of speculative traders. Remember the manipulation of energy prices by Enron et al? Where do you think those guys all went? Hint: they didn't ER.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 09:37 PM   #38
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Re: Stock Market Woes

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Originally Posted by REWahoo!
Patience, youbet.* It'll stop in a few days weeks months years*
OK.......... I think..........* Hey, I promised myself I wouldn't retire into a down market, and I'm retiring in seven weeks!* *

I guess having the first three years in cash might turn out to be a good thing!!* *

Now, back to reading about early season walleyes.........
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 09:41 PM   #39
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Ha,

What you said.

I don't know much market theory, but I do know that the cheap oil is being used up and the supply is limited. Consequently, the supply curve has a steep slope--inelastic--and demand can only increase. There will be high-cost producers and low-cost producers, and they will all sell oil and its products at the same prices. Entry into the market is restricted, as it is highly capital-intensive and requires huge investments and manpower to get in, and the old boys who got in early and cheap should do well. Somebody is going to make a lot of money and we should buy their stocks.

A small part of my investments are in oil and other commodities through mutual funds, but my occupation (today) is in the oil industry in a growth area. I am betting on oil. I have worked in a declining profession in declining industries and like Mae West said, "I've been rich and I've been poor, and believe me: rich is better."

Then, I may retire in Venezuela and pay 13 cents a gallon for gasoline.

Ed
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-17-2006, 09:46 PM   #40
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Hint: they didn't ER.

What happened to Lou Pai and the executive who ran Enron Int'l (her name escapes me).* I thought they sold out at the all time high and emerged unscathed.

Or maybe you are referring to the traders - I believe many of them were nailed...
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