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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-30-2006, 01:40 PM   #101
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Re: Stock Market Woes

CFB - I think you were pulling my leg about getting back into the market, right?
I'm still mostly in cds, KMI, TGT, and a couple other long term holds.
Anything starting to look attractive?
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-30-2006, 07:13 PM   #102
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Re: Stock Market Woes

I didnt say which "yesterday" I meant, now...did I?

For what its worth, I still havent bought anything. Barring a big drop, i'm looking at somewhere right after the fourth of july to do some buying.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-30-2006, 10:43 PM   #103
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by DanTien
Anything starting to look attractive?
Intel is looking better & better... for July...
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 06:56 AM   #104
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Re: Stock Market Woes

The old market saw: Sell in May and go away.

Now when to get back in - there's the rub - opinions seem to vary. October?

Heck - I haven't a clue - usually the(mine) male hormones start to kick in the end of August early fall - aka football season.

Stocks and football - logical - Right?

heh heh heh heh heh
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 07:35 AM   #105
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Dunno exactly where the bottom will be. Yesterday would be nice, but who knows. I think we will see more Fed rate increases until it is clear they have overshot. Then we will have a (hopefully brief, shallow) recession and the Fed will chop rates. I wish it were otherwise, but I can't see any other way for Helicopter Ben to make his bones as a credible inflation fighter.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 09:27 AM   #106
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Re: Stock Market Woes

So at this point, aren't we bouncing around the 200 day moving average? Market climbs a bit and gives it all back. Still o.k. by me, I'm just DCA'ing every week.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 09:31 AM   #107
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Hulbert
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hulbert
, I found that the stock market's probabilities of rising between June 1 and Aug. 31 actually go up when May is a down month.
Consider first those years in which May produced as big or bigger loss as it has so far this year. Since the mid 1890s, when the DJIA was created, a total of 26 years qualify. The DJIA's average summer gain during those 26 years was 6.3%.
Contrast that with the summer gains during years in which the DJIA in May did better than it has in 2006. The average three-month gain during those summers was 2.5%.
This difference turns out to be significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use.
Maybe someone can do some more data mining, and figure out the exact date to get back in the market, when May was as bad as it was this year.
(My guess is you'd find June 1 to be the date, and then need to do some more mining to get a better answer!)



Next line of article:
Quote:
To be sure, a pattern can have statistical significance and still not have that much investment significance.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 09:31 AM   #108
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
So at this point, aren't we bouncing around the 200 day moving average?* Market climbs a bit and gives it all back.* Still o.k. by me, I'm just DCA'ing every week.
Yeah, I think that's sensible. *Its not like this is any big, cataclysmic event. *Just another buying opportunity. *Let's just hope that the bird flu and the Iranians stay reasonably quiescent and everything will be hunky-dory.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 09:41 AM   #109
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by lazyday
Hulbert
Maybe someone can do some more data mining, and figure out the exact date to get back in the market, when May was as bad as it was this year.
(My guess is you'd find June 1 to be the date, and then need to do some more mining to get a better answer!)

I guess after Oct 19
And get in before the midterm elections when the Dems take back the House & Senate and start impeachment proceedings.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 10:30 AM   #110
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by DanTien
impeachment proceedings
So, by "get in" do you mean "short Halliburton?"
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 11:01 AM   #111
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Re: Stock Market Woes

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Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy
Martha, isn't that the oily grey stuff that smells bad?* When I lived in Chicago, I bought some and had to throw it away.* You should try some Chinook some time.

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Hey Ed, I missed this post. No, it is not oily grey stuff. It is beautiful, tender and pink to red. I like it better than the smoked Chinook I have had from the northwest. Maybe just because it is fresher. We buy it from a commercial fisherman just up the shore. Also like the local smoked herring. Some the the trout is good but it often is too fatty for my taste.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 01:42 PM   #112
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by lazyday
So, by "get in" do you mean "short Halliburton?"
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 02:10 PM   #113
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Re: Stock Market Woes

I started moving some excess cash into a few areas that needed higher allocations this weekend. Just a gut feeling that it's a decent buying opportunity.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 04:15 PM   #114
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Re: Stock Market Woes

As a contraindicator... :P

Bought 400 VWO, 300 VBR, and 100 TIP today...
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 05-31-2006, 04:51 PM   #115
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Bought TIP too.
Best of luck!
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 06-02-2006, 09:12 AM   #116
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Re: Stock Market Woes

Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
As a contraindicator...* :P

Bought 400 VWO, 300 VBR, and 100 TIP today...
i've been looking at vwo and eem. any pros/cons between them or are you just a vanguard fan? (i am)
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 06-02-2006, 09:19 AM   #117
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Re: Stock Market Woes

As for timing, I'd sold some other stuff that was either bubbly or higher fees.
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 06-02-2006, 09:20 AM   #118
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Re: Stock Market Woes

http://www.vanguard.com/internationa...ts1Q2006EN.htm

Quote:
i've been looking at vwo and eem. any pros/cons between them or are you just a vanguard fan? (i am) quote]

Maybe this will help some
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 06-05-2006, 05:07 PM   #119
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Re: Stock Market Woes

So Bernake throws a one-two punch:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13151199/

And the markets tumble. Since it's now obvious he's going to continue raising rates, can the market do better than trade flat until he signals "All clear"?
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Old 06-05-2006, 05:11 PM   #120
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Re: Stock Market Woes

yet another nasty day on Wall St.
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