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Stock Markets: When Will the Bull Return?
Old 03-08-2009, 06:14 PM   #1
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Stock Markets: When Will the Bull Return?

Great read!

Stock Markets: When Will the Bull Return? - BusinessWeek
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Old 03-08-2009, 06:39 PM   #2
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Hmmmm - how about the bull never returns and stock dividend yields go above bond yields(like before 1958) and stay that way - 'because stocks are iffy compared to bonds' - aka the long shadow cast from the Great Depression.

And then of course we all learn to hum 'Gimme That Old Time Religion' in Norwegian while we wait for our dividend checks.

heh heh heh - but I will try to be more optimistic.

Pssst Wellesley - SEC yield = 5.69% as of 3/6/2009.

P.S. If we could Freedom Fry French Fries a while back maybe we could Swedishize Banks instead of Nationalize and get things going.
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Old 03-08-2009, 07:04 PM   #3
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At this point, I'd be very, very happy if the year ends flat. Though barely more than two months into the year, "flat" already means a jump of about 33% from here!
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Old 03-09-2009, 11:27 AM   #4
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Yeah I remember a "how long will it take you to recover to max net worth" type thread from a little while back.

I believe I posted I could get back by year end assuming sideways market going forward... that sideways part sure turned out to be wishful thinking.
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Old 03-09-2009, 02:19 PM   #5
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Assuming we are half way through an 18 year bear cycle, the "great bull" could return in 2017-2018.

In the meantime, there could be some strong multi-year rallies - aka "bear market rallies" - before additional nasty plunges. That is the nature of a "secular" bear market. I intend to rebalance.

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Old 03-09-2009, 02:24 PM   #6
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Not until the market gets something from policy makers (governments and central banks) that convince it that said policy makers have even half a clue.

Until then I see NO fuel for a rally, just more abject despair and uncertainty.
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Old 03-09-2009, 02:29 PM   #7
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Not until the market gets something from policy makers (governments and central banks) that convince it that said policy makers have even half a clue.

Until then I see NO fuel for a rally, just more abject despair and uncertainty.
Well aren't you Mr Sunshine........ I just booked a couple of nights at a nice hotel for this weekend via Priceline. Got a good deal. Then I start reading the ER board, see your post, and it's instant buyer's remorse! Thanks a lot!
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Old 03-09-2009, 02:31 PM   #8
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Well aren't you Mr Sunshine........
Yeah, I know -- but I don't see anything else driving this market. This market desperately needs some decisive policy measures that it believes in -- even if merely workable and not perfect.

I frankly don't see any other catalyst to snap out of this death spiral.
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Old 03-10-2009, 03:35 PM   #9
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At this point, I'd be very, very happy if the year ends flat. Though barely more than two months into the year, "flat" already means a jump of about 33% from here!
Yeah, we'd need five more days like today.
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Old 03-10-2009, 03:44 PM   #10
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Yeah, we'd need five more days like today.

Sure is nice for a change. Probably down 500 tomorrow.
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Old 03-10-2009, 03:51 PM   #11
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Sure is nice for a change. Probably down 500 tomorrow.
Look on the bright side. You could have capitulated and joined the herd using ultrashort funds for financials and real estate.

Those ETFs were both down over 25%. Today. In one day. Now THAT is some massive headbanging.
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Old 03-10-2009, 04:10 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Assuming we are half way through an 18 year bear cycle, the "great bull" could return in 2017-2018.

In the meantime, there could be some strong multi-year rallies - aka "bear market rallies" - before additional nasty plunges. That is the nature of a "secular" bear market. I intend to rebalance.

Audrey
The article tends to lean this way too:

"A more probable outcome is the one drawn from the narrow history of bear markets that grew out of financial crises. In it, the bear scenario continues to play out until the bull takes over, with more debt busts and government trial and error until things get set right again. That could mean two more years of bouncing around and then another six or so before the Dow is back above 14,000. Not long ago, such an outcome would have seemed unimaginably bleak. Given the other possibilities, it doesn't seem so bad now."
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Old 03-10-2009, 04:27 PM   #13
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YO, Bottom. It's me Rocky.

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