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Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 10:10 AM   #1
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Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area

I'm looking at AMD & INTC at the moment and pondering which is at the better entry point.

Any insight from stock trading people out there? Are there any?
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 10:16 AM   #2
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

If you're looking for TA, forget it. There are fundamental changes happening to their product line ups. INTC all the way.
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 10:29 AM   #3
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

Beats me. I don't do tech stocks. Maybe our resident techno gurus can offer an opinion.
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 10:45 AM   #4
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
If you're looking for TA, forget it. There are fundamental changes happening to their product line ups. INTC all the way.
Got inside INTC at 19.50....
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 10:49 AM   #5
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

I don't think anyone can offer anything better than a best guess. Here's mine: I wanted to buy AMD recently, but to me it looked (and still looks) like AMD was overpriced, and INTC was at a more reasonable price. So I bought a bunch of INTC instead, and will reconsider AMD in a few weeks or months. I'll probably end up owning some of each, and no one can really say what will happen to each in the next few weeks but personally I'm holding off on AMD, expect them both to be pretty good in the long haul, and don't think it'd be a huge mistake to buy either.
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 10:55 AM   #6
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cool Dood
I don't think anyone can offer anything better than a best guess. Here's mine: I wanted to buy AMD recently, but to me it looked (and still looks) like AMD was overpriced, and INTC was at a more reasonable price. So I bought a bunch of INTC instead, and will reconsider AMD in a few weeks or months. I'll probably end up owning some of each, and no one can really say what will happen to each in the next few weeks but personally I'm holding off on AMD, expect them both to be pretty good in the long haul, and don't think it'd be a huge mistake to buy either.
Agree....going to watch AMD for the time being...think both will be good long term holds, just a matter of entry point now...INTC has a 2%+ div yield!
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 10:59 AM   #7
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

Also, nothing wrong with IBM...
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 11:00 AM   #8
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

Intc is at a 52-wk low. Looks like a good entry point.
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 11:09 AM   #9
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maddy the Turbo Beagle
Intc is at a 52-wk low. Looks like a good entry point.
Just about a three-year low. I've been buying these two weeks.

I've been hearing good things about Otellini & friends, and I'd say they'll get their act together this year.

Earnings report Wed 19 April. Judging from this morning's price movement I'd say that someone's been dumpster-diving at the printer's shop.
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 11:13 AM   #10
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

Well, I've been hearing bad things about Otellini, but I'd still say it's a good time to buy (and I did myself).
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 11:21 AM   #11
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Just about a three-year low. I've been buying these two weeks.

I've been hearing good things about Otellini & friends, and I'd say they'll get their act together this year.

Earnings report Wed 19 April. Judging from this morning's price movement I'd say that someone's been dumpster-diving at the printer's shop.



On Another note(hehehe) I'm looking at GTRC (Guitar Center/MusciansFriend) wouldn't mind recouping some of my outlay to them...
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 11:38 AM   #12
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Retricted Area

Not so much a trading idea, but Altria (MO) is off it's highs. I've owned this stock for awhile. It pays a 4.6% dividend at the current share price. At the price I bought it a few years ago, the dividend is like a 8+% yield.

This is the stock that I give away shares to charity each year and then replenish when the price drops a little bit.
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 12:09 PM   #13
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area

Hmmm INTC and AMD...who might know something about this...?

Fortunately I still have a recent PM on the subject in my outbox. Wow I wrote a lot of PM's this month! I had to edit this heavily, but i'm sure the approximate message remains the same.

AMD has a better product in ways people care about right now, which isnt to say that people care about the right stuff. Lower powered, lower clocked, more efficient, more reliable and multiple cores were things that Intel just couldnt get through their thick heads no matter how hard I swung the 20lb mallet. "More GHz, bigger, hotter, faster!!!". Hey, it'd always worked before. And SUN was thought to be the big threat, not AMD.

Real problem with NIH, not listening to what customers say they want instead of deciding what the right thing for them to have, even when what the customer wants is stupid. Its still what they want. IE the late adoption of 64 bit processors, which do nothing for 99.9999% of consumers and wont for years, if ever.

Real problem with succeeding despite themselves, simply because they have enjoyed a virtual monopoly, had the right product at the right time, did a great manufacturing job, and basically pounded 5c worth of sand into a $1000 slice of stuff. Building a factory was like installing a free ATM machine that spit out thousand dollar bills. Lots of senior management that couldnt find their ass with both hands if you put in a hinge at the waist and turned their top half around to face the back. Lots of "hurry up for no reason because I dont feel good about myself unless I make you work 12 hours a day to do something twice as fast as you said you could do it in" producing half assed results, burnout in people that matter, and a very short term focus on planning and deliverables.

Real problem with the channel starting to look at AMD more seriously.

Ok, whats good.

New boss. Paul Otellini is a smart, capable guy that comes from the sales and marketing side, not a founder thats into chip design and manufacturing. I like Paul and think he's going to be very, very good for the company. Craig Barrett was a jerk. Barrett developed intels current salary review process, which basically should come with a huge company dick [Ok, we'll cut that out too, you get the message]. The company really went bad when he took over. Bob Noyce was a real people guy and a wonderful fella and when he died and left the company in the hands of Barrett and Grove, it was bad, bad news. The three of them made a fine three headed beast that did a good job between them, but Noyce was the superego of the bunch. So good news at the top of the management food chain. In line right behind Otellini to see the seat in about 7-8 years is Louis Burns. I saw a lot of how he works. A Marketing and IT guy...very sharp.

So management should improve from the head down and has good people for succession.

Powerful, efficient manufacturing force worldwide thats moving into the far east and south/central america.

Strong hand on the channel. Intel can provide the product, consistently makes good stuff and doesnt screw stuff up a lot. Nothing like a thermal defect in a processor, a major bug or anything like that which requires a pc product recall to really make your day as a Dell or HP. AMD's had a bunch of those. They've also had trouble ramping, getting product out the door from time to time, and their manufacturing and defect avoidance still arent great.

Starting to "get it" with the products. Dual cores, the "M" series, hyperthreading, higher efficiency etc. Effective or not, its playing the right tune to the right people. Fallen a little bit behind AMD in the performance department. New roadmap and soon to appear products are REALLY good.

Winning the Apple business is huge. Not in terms of volume but in terms of prestige and PR impact. Being associated with the brand that gets people to pay a 40% premium for ordinary products cant hurt.

Losing the Xbox 360 business was huge. For the opposite reasons above.

Big horizon problem with performance not really mattering anymore.

A lot of strategic planning and product stuff was focused heavily on beating Sun. I never thought Sun was a problem.

Sticking with itanium was stupid. Being a follower to AMD on 64 bit was reeeally bad even though 64 bit makes no sense for a near term consumer platform.

Things dont look bad and should get better, but I dont know where the profit stream runs from. I cant imagine 8GHz pentium M's. I dont know what killer app could take 2-4x the current power.

Tons of cash. Comparing the two, I think INTC right now might have more cash on the books than AMD has earned in its lifetime. AMD cant get profitable. Selling against a much larger company that is an extremely effective and efficient manufacturer that has a lot of cash in its pocket? Suicide. About all AMD is doing or is going to do is make the chip business less profitable for Intel. Unless Intel completely steps on its dick and keeps standing on it for 5-6 more years, they have zero realistic chance.

Short answer: I'd buy some, maybe a nice chunk. Not too much though. Not like a 20-30% chunk of my portfolio.
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 12:54 PM   #14
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area

Hey CFB, how about a regular feature?
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 01:19 PM   #15
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area

My nose?
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 01:26 PM   #16
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area

If that's what y'achoos...
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 02:13 PM   #17
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area

I have a good slug of INTC and even more MSFT.

TER and AMAT round out my biggest 4 tech holdings.

Smaller positions in CSCO, ORCL, TMTA, JDSU and a few others that don't come to mind immediately.
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area
Old 04-13-2006, 05:31 PM   #18
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area

Don't follow those.* On the tech side, current plaything is PWAV.
Now if you like oil service- - - really have been having fun with PXJ.* Think I mentioned this one when it first launched.* Have the 20 calls out on it now.*
Edit to mention LEXR/MU*
Own quite a bit of LEXR and it may be bought by MU which IMO makes MU real nice.* LEXR has pending litigation against Toshiba which could fetch it millions one day soon.* Not sure how I'd play if I didn't already have LEXR, but I think there is some gold in there somewhere :
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area
Old 07-14-2006, 10:35 AM   #19
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area

Digging up an old thread...

Couple of nice moves in the last day by INTC.

Senior management is starting to peel off the layers of middle management (1000 to be let go), cutting costs to a billion or more, parting out unprofitable businesses, analyzing viability of all existing business units and looking to pare perhaps 10% or more of the workforce. Cuts to be made as the process unrolls, not at the end of some long bureaucratic project.

Conroe processors just rolled out. This dual core chip is able to outrun anything else out there for a lot less money. Server, desktop and mobile chips can be cut from the same piece of silicon on the same process, which is a huge cost savings and an enormous bit of flexibility. Even the single core chips are just going to be dual cores with one core shot out at the end of the manufacturing process.

It's going to be a tough year to be a lousy intel middle manager or someone working there running a defective program or oddball project. Pretty good time to be a computer buyer as the price war and these new chips mean a screaming machine for cheapo prices.

Might be a good time to own the stock too, as costs and overhead come down...along with some margins to be sure...but if intc wins back half the market share it lost...or all of it...
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area
Old 07-14-2006, 01:20 PM   #20
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Re: Stock Trading Ideas - Restricted Area

I agree a price war is imminent. AMD is set to drop prices significantly to stave off erosion of its market share and it's likely to seriously reduce the earnings of both companies (AMD and Intel).
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