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Old 02-03-2012, 03:50 PM   #21
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Stocks jump on strong jobs report for January - Yahoo! Finance



I am a little skeptical about any explanation for stock market ups and downs. However, if this story is correct then we should be in for quite a bull market as we recover from the unemployment situation we have been going through, which will eventually happen. We still have quite a way to go.

"Wh - - - " oh, OK, I won't say it (yet).

But maybe a little solitary dancer....

P.S. - - please, please, PLEASE don't turn this political! Let's just share in the joy. Thanks guys.
You are frightening me. Please recant.

Ha
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Old 02-03-2012, 04:50 PM   #22
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Isn't the conventional wisdom that the stock market rally precedes the economic recovery by 6 months?
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Old 02-03-2012, 05:01 PM   #23
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W2R control yourself! Can't you let us enjoy the party a little longer? Pretty please?

There does look to be real improvement on the jobs front, which is really welcome news.

Now the talking heads can go back to fretting about when the Fed will start raising interest rates! There is always something to fret about!
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Old 02-03-2012, 05:24 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by W2R View Post
Stocks jump on strong jobs report for January - Yahoo! Finance



I am a little skeptical about any explanation for stock market ups and downs. However, if this story is correct then we should be in for quite a bull market as we recover from the unemployment situation we have been going through, which will eventually happen. We still have quite a way to go.

"Wh - - - " oh, OK, I won't say it (yet).

But maybe a little solitary dancer....

P.S. - - please, please, PLEASE don't turn this political! Let's just share in the joy. Thanks guys.
AMEN......and just took a little off the top today to satisfy my RMD's of my inherited ira account.
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Old 02-03-2012, 05:28 PM   #25
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You are so right - - it really doesn't matter unless one is selling. Still, it takes my breath away just to look at it soar.



Me, too! Who knows, I might end up a Vanguard Flagship member out of this if it keeps up.
I'm just a little Voyager but would love to catch a ride on that Flagship one day.
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Old 02-03-2012, 05:31 PM   #26
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I'm just a little Voyager but would love to catch a ride on that Flagship one day.
Me too, but hope springs eternal (especially when the market acts like this!)
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Old 02-03-2012, 05:48 PM   #27
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I'll take a modest bow and claim responsibility for today's market action. You see, the market uptrend recently caused my equity allocation to exceed my 10% "wiggle" band and YESTERDAY was the day I rebalanced! I'll try to announce beforehand when I'm contemplating such an action in the future.
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Old 02-03-2012, 07:01 PM   #28
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I'll take a modest bow and claim responsibility for today's market action. You see, the market uptrend recently caused my equity allocation to exceed my 10% "wiggle" band and YESTERDAY was the day I rebalanced! I'll try to announce beforehand when I'm contemplating such an action in the future.
Thank you, it was very much appreciated!
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Old 02-03-2012, 10:24 PM   #29
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This was a fun week for the mkt. I almost took some profits, but got a litttle greedy and talked myself into waiting until next week.

I even purchased some RSH when it plummeted to 7.20. Hubby looked it up and said they're not earning anything!! I said "I know, but the market is very forgiving and it will be back up in a couple months. I purchased some LCC and DAL when they were down last year and I am having a good time watching them climb.

KEEP ON CLIMBING!!
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:55 PM   #30
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Why not?

The S&P was at an all-time high in 1980.

Twenty years later it was ten times as high again.

By its very nature a bull market makes new highs.

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Having a major index hit an 11 year high does not make me think a bull market is starting.
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Old 02-04-2012, 01:44 AM   #31
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Only the NASDAQ has surpassed its 2007 high. The Dow and the S&P still have a bit more to go.
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Old 02-04-2012, 05:24 AM   #32
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Me too, but hope springs eternal
so does herpes...

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Oil prices. And all the saber-rattling over Iran, which... well, oil prices.

As long as oil prices spike on any sign of economic strength, there will be a limit to the legs the recovery will have.
+1

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What I want to know is, how could Phil predict 6 more weeks of winter when winter never even arrived for many of us?
Does Phil mean 6 more weeks of winter or 6 more weeks of the the same weather we currently have?
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Old 02-04-2012, 05:28 AM   #33
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Sounds good.Unemployment down,stocks at 52 week highs.Go all stock.Oh wait.Labor force participation lowest since 1981 as 1.2 million more drop out of labor force.Will new jobs pay the same and help tax base.Better go all cash.But wait...uhhh.. Yes I am very glad market is up,but I have to tune out the noise.Because I will drive myself nuts and screw up my portfolio.Best wishes to all.Cheers.
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Old 02-04-2012, 06:03 AM   #34
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Sounds good.Unemployment down,stocks at 52 week highs.Go all stock.Oh wait.Labor force participation lowest since 1981 as 1.2 million more drop out of labor force.Will new jobs pay the same and help tax base.Better go all cash.But wait...uhhh.. Yes I am very glad market is up,but I have to tune out the noise.Because I will drive myself nuts and screw up my portfolio.Best wishes to all.Cheers.
The jobs report was good, and a definite improvement over recent reports. It does not mean the economy is in great shape but it does mean the trend is improving. I thought the increase in manufacturing and construction jobs was a very positive aspect because they have been missing over the past year.
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Old 02-04-2012, 06:16 AM   #35
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The employment in my state (under 6% unemployment rate I believe) and career field is good. Alot of recruiter calls the last few weeks. The pay is a little lower than prior years, so they haven't made me think much about leaving my current job. (Plus I've only been in my job for 5 months, but it is a PITA.)
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Old 02-04-2012, 10:36 AM   #36
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I'm afraid to look to see what happens today. OK, here I go, be right back.

...

Oops, it's Saturday -- who knew?
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Old 02-04-2012, 10:58 AM   #37
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+1
Having a major index hit an 11 year high does not make me think a bull market is starting.
Don't forget US market index values are essentially denominated in dollars, hence what appears to be a new high might only reflect inflation.
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Old 02-04-2012, 11:54 AM   #38
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Sounds good.Unemployment down,stocks at 52 week highs.Go all stock.Oh wait.Labor force participation lowest since 1981 as 1.2 million more drop out of labor force.Will new jobs pay the same and help tax base.Better go all cash.But wait...uhhh.. Yes I am very glad market is up,but I have to tune out the noise.Because I will drive myself nuts and screw up my portfolio.Best wishes to all.Cheers.
For a bit more context on the unemployment number, consider: "the participation rate in the workforce has dropped from 64.2 a year ago to 63.7% of the civilian population. Since the unemployment rate is based only on the labor force cohort the distortion isn't readily apparent.

But, if you take one half of one percent - the difference year-on-year in rates) and multiply that times the population (for rounding, call it 300 million people in America) that means about 1.5 million people no longer count.

Since they not longer have unemployment benefits, they can't be unemployed, goes the logic. And since they don't have jobs, they must not be part of the labor force...although they are still in the civilian nose count..."
(source: Peoplenomics-02.4.12).
There are actually 11.3+/- Million folks FEWER participating in the workforce than 9 years ago.

So while lower is better than higher, the actual number is not necessarily representing the harbinger of a boom just ahead.

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Old 02-04-2012, 12:09 PM   #39
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The BLS implemented a change in methodology that make comparisons with previous periods a bit difficult. See a good analysis here (Calculated Risk) that shows the participation rate did not really fall as some media reports suggest. This was explained by the BLS when they released the data.
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Old 02-04-2012, 01:11 PM   #40
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It's a tough number to measure, I don't envy those in charge of reporting. While I'm not really into any 'conspiracy theories' on the number being manipulated, I do think it is tough to know just what it really means.

Whenever a report like this comes out, I let the market reaction be my guide. I figure the data was probably pretty reasonably digested by 'the market'. Since the market went up, I'll take it as a positive overall for the economy. I would think positive job numbers should show up in savings and spending rates, and other measures (late payment rates, mort default rates, etc). I think those numbers will tell the real story, after all the plus/minus/offsets/fudges required in the jobs report.

-ERD50
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