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Stocks looking a lot like April
01-24-2011, 08:04 PM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Stocks looking a lot like April
These charts are of the Russell 2000, the index that led the market up.
It is looking a lot like April.
Anyone lightening up on stocks?
First is the daily
Second is the weekly
Take a look at the heavy vertical blue lines.
Also, it has started to bounce along the lower bollenger band on the daily.
Don't put too much weight on the January Barometer.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145...uary-barometer
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Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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01-24-2011, 08:14 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
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Dex, I thought you went to all cash. Why are you fretting over bolinger bands?
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Numbers is hard
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01-24-2011, 08:21 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Dex, I thought you went to all cash. Why are you fretting over bolinger bands?
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I may put in a small short this week. There is a Fed action or meeting on Wed. that could pop the market up a bit more.
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Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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01-24-2011, 09:31 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
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I don't know Dex, I think I'm gonna pass on your lead. But who knows, you may get lucky since you got skunked the last time. Good luck!
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01-24-2011, 10:05 PM
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#5
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
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Since stocks in general are slightly overvalued (in my own estimation), I am slightly underweight stocks. I have cash at the ready to buy more equities on a pullback.
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01-25-2011, 12:01 AM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 255
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Am I reading about market timing here?
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01-25-2011, 01:31 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Palma de Mallorca
Posts: 1,419
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The headline markets (Dow, Dax, etc) are up a couple of points on last week, but my emerging markets and Asia funds are all down. 
This race-to-the-bottom with currencies is hurting my numbers, too. Every time I gain 5% on US/UK stocks, the Euro - which everyone tells me is about to "collapse" - gains another 3% on the $/£ and that's half my gain gone. The best thing that could happen to my portfolio is a 10% drop in the Euro.
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01-25-2011, 02:55 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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 Are you in the right forum?
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01-25-2011, 05:17 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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I've been selling equities, but it hasn't anything to do with astrological star charts. But considering the "success" of the last " sell signal" (SPX up 20% in 5 months, 55% annualized) I should reconsider and move all-in.
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01-25-2011, 06:05 AM
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#10
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I guess we know "whaddaya do all day" in Dex' case.
What is next? Market divination via the entrails of a chicken?
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"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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01-25-2011, 06:06 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Palma de Mallorca
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If you mean me: I'm just b*tchin'. 
I check the BBC 6-item market ticker every day - the numbers have all been green for a week. Then I make my twice-weekly visit to my online accounts and all of my stock-based funds equities are off by 2-3%. 10K down in a week hurts more than 70K up in the past 5 months (which of course was partly due to the Euro softening a little).
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01-25-2011, 06:10 AM
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#12
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Far NW 'burbs of Chicago
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I've reduced equities a bit, but that's just my normal re-balancing after the runup.
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01-25-2011, 12:01 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
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I seem to see a head-and-shoulders top just above the breakout of the MACD stochastic. I am waiting to hear what Cramer says about it today.
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And if I claim to be a wise man, it surely means that I don't know.
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01-25-2011, 01:10 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Location: LaLa Land
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I see an upside down coffee cup and I'll wait to see what Suze has to say about it tonight.
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01-25-2011, 01:20 PM
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#15
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Administrator
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Nobody knows what equity prices will do, but we all know that Mr. Bernanke wants them to go up and hang around those levels for a while. Seein' how he's in charge of the printing press and got the whole place working overtime, I'm thinkin' he's gonna get what he wants. I'm sure not gonna bet against him.
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01-25-2011, 01:37 PM
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#16
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I see big breasts, and I'm going to wait and see what Craig Ferguson says tonight.
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Al
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01-25-2011, 01:56 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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April who? 
Sorry, Dex, your thread title just plain tickled my funny bone. 
To answer the question you asked... No, I am sticking with my 40/60 AA plan. If anything, my temporary cash (13% in a VG NY TE money market bond fund) position will be utilized before June. I just haven't decided what I will do with it.
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01-25-2011, 02:48 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
I see big breasts, and I'm going to wait and see what Craig Ferguson says tonight.
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Darn, I either need better glasses, or worse ones.
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01-25-2011, 10:44 PM
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#19
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We might rebalance a little out of Berkshire Hathaway and some small-cap value ETF shares, but that's only if they go outside their asset-allocation band.
Unfortunately that's nowhere near as exciting as technical analysis. Those guys get all the hot chicks.
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01-26-2011, 01:19 AM
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#20
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 131
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This is the chart I'm looking at
S&P 500 PE Ratio Chart
Combined with the second figure (scatter plot) here
P/E ratio - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
... which means that I'm liquidating as sell criterias get hit and either put it the money into short/medium duration bonds and low beta dividend stocks.
I'm not trying to hit anything dynamically. It's more the observation that statistically speaking market P/E > 20 never bodes well for long-term performance, like never ever. Granted, I may feel rich for a year or two if I hang on, but it would be hard to find the exit point. I will, therefore, forgo all the excitement and just start getting out now.
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