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Old 03-27-2008, 06:00 PM   #21
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commodity cyclecs run every 30 years or so

1907, 1937, 1973 were the three inflationary bear markets. 2003 is 30 years from the last one.

come 2025 start watching commodity prices because we'll be due for another inflationary cycle. or just read up on the history of which years they took place in the past and add whatever number of years to 2008 to get an approximate future start date.


i think you forget we were on the gold standard and fixed at 35.00 bucks for most of that time
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Old 03-27-2008, 06:10 PM   #22
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Every time I think the last technical analysis junkie has passed away, I get surprised that there's another devotee out there. "You can see now that we entered the classic cup and saucer pattern with double-dip super-duper reflexive half-twist asymptotic fernbuckle." It's amazing.

Only water-witching has a spottier pedigree.
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Old 03-27-2008, 06:12 PM   #23
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i kind of like finding waldo in all that mess
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Old 03-27-2008, 07:39 PM   #24
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Every time I think the last technical analysis junkie has passed away, I get surprised that there's another devotee out there. "You can see now that we entered the classic cup and saucer pattern with double-dip super-duper reflexive half-twist asymptotic fernbuckle." It's amazing.

Only water-witching has a spottier pedigree.
LoL - Humans will always be great at finding patterns where non exist
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Old 03-27-2008, 08:09 PM   #25
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Ignore the noise. Diversify, buy and hold, rebalance if you must, stay the course...

DD
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Old 03-27-2008, 09:25 PM   #26
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I'm very good at spotting patterns after they've happened, and also at pointing out the handful of managed funds that beat the indexes after they've done so.

As far as figuring it out ahead of time...eh, not so much.
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Old 03-28-2008, 04:23 AM   #27
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well over the last decade when all is said and done YES, my managed funds beat my index funds. pure fact. will it be that way in the future? beats me but thats why i said the best thing is split your portfolio between both styles.
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