Join Early Retirement Today
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Stop looking for capitulation
Old 10-25-2008, 09:09 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
mark500's Avatar
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 146
Stop looking for capitulation

and start looking for "stupefaction".

The most interesting thing about [the 1974 market bottom] was its dullness," veteran fund manager Ralph Wanger recalled to me. "It wasn't a crash, it was a mudslide. You came in, watched the market go down a few points and went home. The next day you went through the same thing all over again." And then, without a moment's warning, the bull woke up and took off. By Jan. 6, 1975, the market had shot up 10%, and a year after that the Dow had risen 54% from its 1974 low.

The Intelligent Investor -

The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.

Winston Churchill
mark500 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-25-2008, 09:15 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
the 2000-2002 bear market ended this way, July was a spectacular low on high volume and high VIX. October's lower low wasn't as spectacular.

al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2008, 09:16 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,464
What! You mean my trusty Vanguard computers rebalancing my portfolio on full auto - are not going to send me an E mail, post card, or ok it's safe to party notice?

Who would have thunk it.

heh heh heh - As often as I look these days - I will be calling at least 10? bottoms before the one that takes. Meanwhile I plan to hurry up and just stand there.
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2008, 09:29 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
nice post - thanks

Right now this is about who can take the most pain - like one of those survivor shows challenges.

I still haven't updated my portfolio.
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2008, 09:38 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 17,845
Yeah - we won't get a bottom until the folks still owning stocks finally decide "it's really too late to sell".

I'd say it's been feeling like a mudslide lately!

I figure there won't be a (final) bottom this year, because there is so much forced selling and I figure it's going to take the rest of the year to get most of it done.

Maybe next year the numbness will set in, the VIX will drop, and we'll all just go "groan, another typical day in the markets!".

audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2008, 10:46 AM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
ikubak's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 411
I have updated everything today so I can look at my allocations. It's pretty ugly in terms of total losses. My allocations are OK after a little movement from bonds to stocks last week to rebalance.

Maybe we shouldn't be looking for the capitulation. I have thought it was here several times now, and we just keep selling off. It does seem like a dull ache now as opposed to a climactic sell-off. 3-4% moves down don't phase me anymore. This reminds me of the 2000-2002 bear. Just when you think it can't go lower, it does. Eventually no one wants to watch anymore. I am almost to the point where I don't care to watch anymore.
Retire date Jan. 10, 2018
ikubak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2008, 11:07 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
Almost by definition capitulation precludes there being a lot of people waiting to throw money at the market at the first sign of capitulation.
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2008, 11:08 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
Originally Posted by dex View Post
Right now this is about who can take the most pain - like one of those survivor shows challenges.
Yup, a winnowing of the weak hands is in train.
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2008, 12:40 PM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
Recently (e.g., Friday), the media has been putting forth the idea that "people on Wall Street" have been disappointed that the markets haven't dropped further in a sign of greater "capitulation." I agree that this is self-defeating. Overt market drops as a sign of capitulation can't take place when people are waiting to rush in.

Of course, "this time it's different" (just like all the other times). People the world over are shell shocked. Perhaps capitulation by the common man has been occurring and is continuing as we speak, and we might be seeing it now if it weren't being drowned out by world events. Most likely no bell will ring, in any form.

I'm expecting a tough slog for a while, but I'd be thrilled and tremendously relieved if the S&P would pop back up to the levels of a month or so ago. Maybe the election results will provide some psychological relief.

Grep is offline   Reply With Quote

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Mutual Fund outflows - capitulation sign? Gardnr FIRE and Money 11 10-15-2008 10:19 AM
Are we in or nearing the capitulation stage of bear market? shotgunner FIRE and Money 87 09-18-2008 06:18 PM
Want to stop smoking bbbamI Health and Early Retirement 128 01-16-2008 10:57 AM
I'll never stop learning,,, LeatherneckPA Other topics 6 11-24-2007 06:30 PM
They'll stop at nothing!! ScaredtoQuit FIRE and Money 15 05-01-2007 07:43 AM


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:23 AM.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.