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Old 11-16-2013, 03:20 PM   #21
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I think this guy keeps sending me his newsletter...
Me too, not sure how achieved 'his list' status, but I'd happily unachieve it.

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Old 11-16-2013, 04:19 PM   #22
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Onward, thanks. Very funny.
Quote:
"Earnings missed estimates."
No. Earnings don't miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says "the weather missed estimates." They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality.
Not quite the only industry. Somehow ob/gyn's get the same pass. They tell you the baby will come at the end of January, but if labor starts on Christmas then "the baby came early". How's that? The baby came when the Mom/Baby system said it was time to come, Doc, you just didn't catch the signs.
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"He was tired of throwing his money away renting, so he bought a house."He knows a mortgage is renting money from a bank, right?
Well put.
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Old 11-16-2013, 04:22 PM   #23
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Old 11-16-2013, 06:03 PM   #24
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The market had a technical adjustement.

I think that means that the specialists of several stocks made a killing, all others got the shaft.
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Old 11-16-2013, 07:12 PM   #25
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Refi in 2006, young man driving a very Hummer came to house to finalize the paper work, told us that we should think about taking out an extra 50 to 75k to enjoy life a bit. He proudly told me us that is how he bought his new man toy. My wife and I looked at each other smiled and told him the object is to get out of debt. I've thought about that exchange, wondering home many times he was able to convince folks to take on more debt, sad.
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Old 11-16-2013, 07:54 PM   #26
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.......... I've thought about that exchange, wondering home many times he was able to convince folks to take on more debt, sad.
I think we saw the result, starting in late 2008............
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Old 11-17-2013, 12:30 AM   #27
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Quote:
"Earnings missed estimates."

No. Earnings don't miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says "the weather missed estimates." They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality.
Yes, earnings can miss estimates when estimates were provided by the company itself in forward-looking statements at the last quarterly earning announcements.

As an example, I just looked up a random company that recently announced earnings on Nov 13. The transcript of the earnings call contains the following sentences said by the CEO.
"Now let me comment on our guidance for Q4 and the full year 2013. We expect Q4 shipments will be in a range of approximately 480 to 500 megawatts...

Our gross margin in Q4 is expected to be in a range of 13% to 15%...

We expect to reach approximately USD 60 million additional revenue with 20% to 25% gross margin for each of these 2 projects..."
Analysts get their earning estimates from projections as above. And at the next quarterly earning call, if the company falls flat on its face by not delivering as promised, it will be missing its implied earning estimates and there will be hell to pay.
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Old 11-17-2013, 01:04 AM   #28
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"Earnings were positive before one-time charges."
A megacorp I was with used to issue that statement. You've got to put some lipstick on the pig. The problem was when they had to use it more than once.

Dumb as it is, it's a spin on a negative situation, not too different than spins from politicos.
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Old 11-17-2013, 10:48 AM   #29
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A megacorp I was with used to issue that statement. You've got to put some lipstick on the pig. The problem was when they had to use it more than once.

Dumb as it is, it's a spin on a negative situation, not too different than spins from politicos.
It is also not necessarily misleading as a fairly unusual event. E&P companies must write down the carry value of their reserves, depending on what type of accounting they use, if the relevant market quotes at year end indicate a loss of asset value. Unless they have borrowing covenants that use net worth of other metrics that might put them in violation, these write-downs are relatively meaningless. IF MSFT ever shuts down Bing, there will be huge write-downs, but it is hard to see how it will necessarily hurt their earning power. Same with many divestitures which amount to admitting failure. You can't win them all, but you should try to win big at least sometimes.

Ha
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Old 11-17-2013, 07:19 PM   #30
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So true.
I remember a cartoon from 30 years ago showing a financial commentator saying, "The market was down on disappointing economic news, until bouncing back after realizing this could bring lower interest rates, but then dropping again after realizing the lower rates could bring inflation, but then bounced back after realizing the inflation could help earnings..." Blah, blah blah infinitum.
All every financial show seems to do is watch the market and then grab on to some news that they can attach to it and see if people will believe it.
While I do believe there are a few investors smarter than everybody else, I am continually in disbelief at the amount of $ that is expended by the rest of investors on the chase.
Set it, forget it, and get a life.
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Old 11-18-2013, 07:31 AM   #31
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Financial services is the largest sector in the US equities market, at around 20%. I believe that this ratio is about the same in the global equity market.

So, if these people are so dumb, should we be more worried? Just something for thoughts.
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Old 11-18-2013, 03:20 PM   #32
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Thanks for the laugh!
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Old 11-18-2013, 06:39 PM   #33
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The one one I've gotten tired of reading lately is how the indices have gone up or gone down based on rumors of what the Fed may or may not do sometime in the near or far future.
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Old 11-18-2013, 06:53 PM   #34
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The one one I've gotten tired of reading lately is how the indices have gone up or gone down based on rumors of what the Fed may or may not do sometime in the near or far future.
Talking heads talk...
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Old 11-18-2013, 07:22 PM   #35
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Talking heads talk...
They've been trained.

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Old 11-18-2013, 07:33 PM   #36
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My pet peeves are you need 80% of your previous income in retirement and the whole work 'til you drop advice. It is all based on what is best for the investment companies, not their clients. They don't want to see money taken out of accounts with them and spent on vacations in Bora Bora. Does Bill Gates need 80% of his income to retire?

There was a recent article on how it takes $2.5 million to retire for 30 years, but there wasn't any rational or calculations supporting that number. $2.5M / 30 years = $83K a year, when median household income is closer to $50K, and most retirees will also get Social Security benefits. So where does the $2.5M number come from?
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Old 11-18-2013, 08:06 PM   #37
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Indexes. Indexes. What the hell are indexes.

Everyone knows the plural of index is indices. Everyone except the screen writers for CNBC. Wall street journal and bloomberg


Indices people...indices.


if the opposite of Pro is Con.. Is the opposite of Progress ....Congress
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Old 11-18-2013, 08:20 PM   #38
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The worst for me are technical analysts (why do they get airtime, anyway?) who stand in front of charts and say, "If the market drops to [some number], look for it to go lower."

So, in other words, if the market drops, it could drop further. Pure gobbledygook.

Do these guys really get paid for this??
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Old 11-18-2013, 08:31 PM   #39
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Do these guys really get paid for this??
Unfortunately, yes. I think they are members of the same tribe that gives us pretentious art critics and those guys who write reviews of expensive wines.
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Old 11-19-2013, 08:35 AM   #40
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Unfortunately, yes. I think they are members of the same tribe that gives us pretentious art critics and those guys who write reviews of expensive wines.
Get a rope!
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