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View Poll Results: How Long until Buyers come back into the market in force
> 5 Years 11 20.37%
5 Years 5 9.26%
4 Years 4 7.41%
3 Years 13 24.07%
2 Years 17 31.48%
1 Year 4 7.41%
Voters: 54. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-15-2007, 05:17 PM   #21
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Would you mind sharing the areas you're watching "where prices are currently low?" I'd like to go check some real estate web sites and see if there are any possibilities.......
I am only looking in WA state near enough to go to Federal Way as a day trip. Mossyrock, Morton, Randle. I can get a 5 acre piece for about 200K with a old mobile and a shed or garage or barn but not on waterfront. That to me is cheap, I don't want an old mobile but vacant land cost too much to get the well, septic system, pour cement and build the shed or garage or barn. I could get a decent house on 5 acres for 250-300K or a fabulous home for 595K but it is too big and too many stairs for me but really pretty. I can sell my old house for about 400-450K pay off the 180K mortgage and pay cash for a 30 year old mobile home or get a decent house with a small mortgage or spend some from savings. Every year I work puts me up about 70K in what I can afford.

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Old 12-16-2007, 05:19 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by youbet View Post
Generally, you'll always be able to sell if you price to the market.

IMO, the recent housing boom has led to, in many areas, staggering house appreciation. Owners are very hesitant to give any of their perceived paper gains back and, relative to the gains of the past 3 - 5 years, price drops have been modest.

Whether the markets in southern Missiouri and Louisiana behave relative to one another in your favor or against you during the time period you want to move, only time will tell. But I sure wouldn't let a few thousand bux one way of the other hender me from moving on and doing what I wanted to do!
Exactly! It won't. I wouldn't mind pricing at, say, 80-90% of what is supposedly the market value here, if I could sell it in a couple of months that way. I bought my house in 2002 for less than that, and enjoyed living in it meanwhile. The selection is great where I am going.. nothing is selling there either, and most of the houses have been on the market a long, long time. I am sure I could pick up a home that would be great for me at a bargain price.

Another advantage of selling and buying in a down market is that my property taxes might end up being a little lower than if I paid top dollar.

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Old 12-16-2007, 07:53 AM   #23
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I would hope 3 years (poll is closed).

In West Texas (WT)the prices seem to be holding on homes and real estate. Parts of WT are experiencing an oil boom and thus people are buying vehicles, homes, RV's, etc...., etc.....

My wife and I own our home and our vehicles, thus we do not have a mortgage or a car note. However once the kids leave the house we are thinking about keeping our current residence as a 2nd home, and using my GI Bill to purchase a small house (with about 1 to 2 acres) closer to big city which would have access to medical facilities, doctors, etc..., etc.... Of course, we may change our minds in between now and the time the kids leave the nest.

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Old 12-17-2007, 07:21 AM   #24
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"normal market" .... never or NOW. What's normal?

The last "bottom" in the Boston market was achieved about 4-5 years after the peak. Peak prices would not be reachieved for 12 years. But this was driven by a NASTY recession. You'll know the bottom because investors will be able to rent for a PROFIT ... something we have not seen in nearly a decade ... but it's coming back.
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Old 12-17-2007, 07:48 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by tryan View Post
You'll know the bottom because investors will be able to rent for a PROFIT ... something we have not seen in nearly a decade ... but it's coming back.

I am still waiting for that. I looked at a few properties over the last few weekends. A typical example is a nice 3 bed 1.5 bath with an inlaw suite in an OK, but not great 'hood. Listed 295k, should flow cash pretty decently around 225-240k. So I go look and discover that the owners have done zero maintenance aside from the roof in the last 10+ years. Would require at least $30k to shape it up (and probably more than that from what I couldn't readily see). Told the realtor that I culdn't see going more than 175k or a bit more. Never mind, she sauid, because another couple bought it to live in, and close to list price.

Another oddity of the current market: There are two smallish 3 BR houses a street over from me. They have been on the market for a looooong time and have been vacant for a while. I asked my realtor to see if we could go look at these places, since I assume the sellers must be very motivated. Realtor says that both these houses are "dead listings." The asking price is what the sellers owe on the property, and sinec they have obviously chosen to skip town, they have no incentive to price the properties realistically or bargain. I imagine these will sit until they get foreclosed and then come back on the market as REOs. But in NJ, this might take a year.
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Old 12-17-2007, 09:32 AM   #26
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Here in Minneapolis (I live in the Plymouth suburb), the market doesn't seem awful. Houses are selling slowly, but they are selling. Prices are off their highs, but not falling off a cliff. They are comparable to 2005 prices.

I would guess that next summer will be the bottom assuming:

1. The economy holds up
2. Interest rates stay low

Those two things are pretty iffy, though. If the Fed has to get serious about fighting this latest batch of inflation, interest rates may spike dramatically. I don't expect houses to sell very well if rates get to 9-10%.
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Old 12-17-2007, 12:30 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Spanky View Post
I am still waiting for the housing crash in the Bay Area.
I assume you are referring to the San Francisco, not Tampa, bay area. I think examining the bay area as a single real estate market is too broad of a generalization. I live in San Francisco, where we have seen almost zero foreclosures, houses are selling, albeit slower and with fewer offers. Contrast that with eastern Contra Costa County which if it hasn't crashed is in free fall.

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