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View Poll Results: How Long until Buyers come back into the market in force
> 5 Years 11 20.37%
5 Years 5 9.26%
4 Years 4 7.41%
3 Years 13 24.07%
2 Years 17 31.48%
1 Year 4 7.41%
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Subprime - How Long Before the Real Estate Market Normailizes
Old 12-15-2007, 03:37 AM   #1
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Subprime - How Long Before the Real Estate Market Normailizes

We are intending to down-size in the next 4 to 5 years. We might consider doing it sooner.

How many years do you believe it will take for the housing market to stabilize and become a bit more normal. It is obviously a buyers market today. When will the excess inventory be sold and buyers return (real home owners... not spec investor).

Also, I am talking on a national basis. I know that different locations of the country were affected differently.

When taking the poll, please give your opinion on a national basis.

Make comments about your local situation are in the thread.
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Old 12-15-2007, 07:12 AM   #2
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In two years, I will be newly retired and wishing my house had sold, so I could move to Missouri for ER. We think the real estate cycle in New Orleans is a little bit ahead of the rest of the country. I voted for "3 years" for the rest of the country.

I am not so much concerned about prices, as numbers of homes sold. If I sell for less here, then buying for less in Missouri could ease that problem or make it a non-problem. But if I can't sell at all, then I am stuck.

Seems there are two points of view on this. Some think that if houses aren't selling then it's going to be hard to sell at any price, because buyers won't be able to find financing and can't sell their prior house anyway. Others seem to think that if houses aren't selling, I could sell at a lowered price.

Right now, 3 houses out of 20 on my block are for sale, and have been for sale for quite a while. Prices have come down to some extent, but none have sold yet.
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Old 12-15-2007, 07:57 AM   #3
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I voted for two years .If Florida passes a reasonable property tax reform especially portability it should spur some sales plus with all the baby boomers retiring that should help things in Florida . I also would like to sell my house but I'm not going to give it away. My neighborhood is changing and a lot of houses are being torn down to build McMansions since it's waterfront property .My sister in Long Island ,NY has had her house on the market for three years . In the meantime she built a house in Florida and is now stuck with two houses and horror of horror had to go back to work.
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Old 12-15-2007, 08:11 AM   #4
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I voted for 5 years but the key was your comment of "national." Southern California, parts of Arizona, Nevada and Florida are leading the disruption but they also had giant gains over the last few years. Parts of the NE have had a hit but some parts are still booming. The Pacific NW is still selling hot and things are still "growing to the sky." Even Houston is solid with sales decent and prices rising.

I think before it's over we will all share some of the pain but the rest of us will have to wait for the next inevitable recession. I don't think the current "credit crunch" will trigger it because the economy is too strong and foreign money is too readily available to get good prices on big equity hunks of US companies. I'm betting on 2009 or 2010. That's when I'll lose my cushy j*b and enter ER. I doubt my personal situation will be solved by then but I'll just have to make do.
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Old 12-15-2007, 09:17 AM   #5
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I voted 3 years, but it really depends on what "recovers" means. I'm looking at a reversion to the mean trend over the last 20 years. The spike up of values was artificially induced by easy credit IMHI, and I don't see values in really hot areas attaining those values again for some time. I'm hoping that more sanity comes back into the housing market now.
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Old 12-15-2007, 10:53 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moemg View Post
I voted for two years .If Florida passes a reasonable property tax reform especially portability it should spur some sales plus with all the baby boomers retiring that should help things in Florida . I also would like to sell my house but I'm not going to give it away. My neighborhood is changing and a lot of houses are being torn down to build McMansions since it's waterfront property .My sister in Long Island ,NY has had her house on the market for three years . In the meantime she built a house in Florida and is now stuck with two houses and horror of horror had to go back to work.
I moved from LINY to Florida at the end of last year. The taxes here in Florida are a mess and I don't see it getting any better. In June of this year they had it worked out where they were going to give a super exemption option in lieu of Save Our Homes. This would have evened the playing field but it was knocked out by a Florida judge. So what they came up with is to up the homestead exemption from 25K to 50. This will save the average homeowner less than $300 a year.

Here's the problem: Let's say I'm paying 8K in taxes and my neighbor is paying 4K with the same house. Under SOH (save our homes) taxes can only be raised 3% a year which is fine. Now 3% of 8K is more than 3% of 4K so the taxes will not make any sense to anyone moving to Florida. You have to really want to move here under this tax structure.

They also want to make the SOH portable which is OK for a long time resident of Florida but does nothing for the new comer.

As far as your sister in NY selling her home. Just lower the price it will sell. I started at $725K and ended up at $570 on LINY, it took 6 months but it sold. Your sister must like working because price sells houses in any market.
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Old 12-15-2007, 10:59 AM   #7
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i tend to think when we see credit card defaults sky rocket we may be near the bottom. very few will actually default on a mortgage and pay a credit card bill especially with universal default rules. there may be reasons why one might try but historically it just dosnt happen
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Old 12-15-2007, 11:18 AM   #8
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I wonder if it will recover before global warming melts enough of Greenland and Antartica to flood coastal properties! (Smile - it's just a joke, on a beautiful Saturday morning, high on a hill in a famous coastal city)
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Old 12-15-2007, 11:29 AM   #9
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But if I can't sell at all, then I am stuck.

.
Generally, you'll always be able to sell if you price to the market.

IMO, the recent housing boom has led to, in many areas, staggering house appreciation. Owners are very hesitant to give any of their perceived paper gains back and, relative to the gains of the past 3 - 5 years, price drops have been modest.

Whether the markets in southern Missiouri and Louisiana behave relative to one another in your favor or against you during the time period you want to move, only time will tell. But I sure wouldn't let a few thousand bux one way of the other hender me from moving on and doing what I wanted to do!
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Old 12-15-2007, 11:32 AM   #10
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I wonder if it will recover before global warming melts enough of Greenland and Antartica to flood coastal properties! (Smile - it's just a joke, on a beautiful Saturday morning, high on a hill in a famous coastal city)
I wonder, is it too soon to start a thread on whether tax payers should bail out coastal residents whose properties are under water due to global warming?
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Old 12-15-2007, 11:35 AM   #11
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How long will it take buyers to return to the market in force? Perhaps more than 5 years. How long will it take home prices to return to the prices reached in the peak of the housing bubble which some believe to be August, 2005? Perhaps not in the lifetime of many of the readers on this forum.
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Old 12-15-2007, 12:12 PM   #12
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How long will it take buyers to return to the market in force? Perhaps more than 5 years. How long will it take home prices to return to the prices reached in the peak of the housing bubble which some believe to be August, 2005? Perhaps not in the lifetime of many of the readers on this forum.
Back in the mid-80's Houston had a major real estate crash. Many subdivisions lost 30 to 50% of their value. Some neighborhoods were literally bulldozed! People were mailing their keys back to the lenders. It took about 10 years for the typical neighborhood to regain their pre-crash valuation.

Of course, then we all made bad decisions and overpaid for our houses. It was only right that we take the consequenses of our mistakes -- so we heard from the national news commentators. I keep wondering why the current people at risk in subprime are now "victims" of predatory lenders?
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Old 12-15-2007, 01:55 PM   #13
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Right now you hear/read about people who think renting is cheaper than buying and house prices will keep falling. When they think like that they won't buy a house at any price. They think wait and live in apartments and they are being smart and the landlord will fix the plumbing. Over time things will happen to make them want houses. An apartment is fine for a young person or couple but when they have kids or get a boat or want a garden or hate living below someone they will start wanting a house. When the rent goes up and they start to see friends in houses paying less than they do for rent they will want to buy even if it is more than rent. These first time home buyers will improve prices for the move up buyers and once the snowball starts it will escalate. I think move first time buyers are motivated to jump in when prices are going up fast so every year they wait cost them thousands.
The Californian moving to lower cost areas might be just the trigger to start price raises in lower cost areas. City people moving to small towns buying retirement homes or second homes will start to drive up prices too. I am 59 and will buy my retirement house when I am a few months from retirement in the country near fishing lakes where prices are currently low. Once prices start going up I might retire earlier or buy and hold until I am ready.
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Old 12-15-2007, 02:03 PM   #14
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I am 59 and will buy my retirement house when I am a few months from retirement in the country near fishing lakes where prices are currently low. Once prices start going up I might retire earlier or buy and hold until I am ready.
Actually, in many areas with recreational opportunities, you're already too late. Prices are dramatically up from just 3 - 4 years ago. And, so far, pull backs have been modest.

The areas where I've specifically followed along with prices and availability are northern Wisconsin, northern Minnesota and northern Arkansas. In all three areas, I watched prices for desirable lakefront property approximately double in just a few years, moving them out of my ability to purchase.

Would you mind sharing the areas you're watching "where prices are currently low?" I'd like to go check some real estate web sites and see if there are any possibilities.......

Thanks.....
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Old 12-15-2007, 02:08 PM   #15
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People who pay ridiculous prices for houses are not victims, they are perpetrators.

They drive up prices on many things for everyone else.

Does anyone here actually trust a politician? A bureaucrat? The Media?
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Old 12-15-2007, 02:17 PM   #16
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These first time home buyers will improve prices for the move up buyers and once the snowball starts it will escalate. I think move first time buyers are motivated to jump in when prices are going up fast so every year they wait cost them thousands.
I doubt I'm typical, but the combination of low rates and falling prices has me considering trying to buy in the next year or two.

I always compare a one bedroom apartment rent to a three bedroom home mortgage, though. Not because they're comparable but because I only need a one bedroom apartment but would want to buy a 3-bed single family house to make selling easier. Even so, I think the time for me to buy may be rapidly approaching.
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Old 12-15-2007, 02:27 PM   #17
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Just be careful not to to catch a falling knife BigMoneyJim.
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Old 12-15-2007, 04:06 PM   #18
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Prices will slide for another year, probably be flat in '09 and then will flop around not doing much for 2-3 years. Local markets will differ, obviously.
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Old 12-15-2007, 04:52 PM   #19
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Three years is a figure that's being bandied about quite a bit.

We'll all have a much better perspective next year at this time.
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Old 12-15-2007, 05:39 PM   #20
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I am still waiting for the housing crash in the Bay Area.
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