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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-02-2004, 11:58 AM   #161
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

I did a pretty full budget, from regular predictable monthly items through a detailed miscellaneous section, and then figured out a schedule of major replacement items like cars, tires, major appliances, heating and air conditioning, house painting and so forth. Always added a little to everything and for the miscellaneous made sure I added a 30% uptick. Also made sure to add sales tax to everything.

I drew down the long term stuff to rough annual numbers.

I wasnt anal about this. I did it in about an hour or two using some stuff I borrowed from quickens budgeter and some postings here (someone had a big fat 'miscellaneous' budget post a while back that gave me lots of ideas). The point was to get a rough handle on outflow. It gave me several ideas on where I could make some cuts to things that didnt mean a lot to me and some opportunities to cut back if things get tight.

I certainly dont "track" this or sit at the computer every day with a stack of receipts. I'd rather shoot myself.

With that in hand, I "know" what I need to spend and according to all the "planning tools", my investments will more than suffice.

= sleeping better

With that known, I now just spend what I need, prudently if possible, and if we hit a run of really bad investing years I can reduce back a little by referring to my budget sheet.

What I budget for (generically) in case its helpful for someone else making this up:

Regular monthly stuff:

Home Ins
Home Tax
Nat Gas
Water
Elec
Trash
Cable/Internet
Phone
Car Tax
Car Ins
Gas
Food
Med Ins
Misc
Entertainment

Stuff that funnels into "Misc"

BATHROOM STUFF
Shampoo
Conditioner
Soap
Lotion
Toothpaste
TP
Kleenex
Shaving Cream
Razors
Bandaids
Rubbing alcohol
Hydrogen peroxide
Deodorant
Wash cloths
Towels

PETS
Dog and Cat food
Dog biscuits and treats
dog/cat meds/vet

HOME
Car maintenance
Bug killers
Fertilizer
Mower gas + oil
Drinking water
Warehouse club dues
Wood

KITCHEN STUFF & OTC MEDS / Vitamins

Paper towels
Foil
Plastic wrap
Baggies
Dish soap
Dishwasher detergent
Garbage bags
Laundry Det/spotter/bleach
Meds
Vits

OFFICE SUPPLIES

Stamps
Envelopes
Paper
Batteries

EXTRA UNFORESEEN EXPENSES (All Above Expenses x 30%)+Sales Tax

And the longer term stuff

Car
water heater
furnace
AC compressor
Housepaint
refrigerator
Dishwasher
range
Microwave
washer and dryer
Car tires
computer
Printer
Television

living room set
bedroom set
gas grill
clothes
Workout equipment
Bicycles
Vacuum Cleaner
Steam Cleaner
Tools

Just for nice round numbers if you'd like to plug them in and not do the work, my total very conservative "Misc" for a couple is $4637 per year, and my draw down annualized amount for long term capital replacements is roughly $3000 per year. The latter is obviously highly deferrable.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-02-2004, 11:58 AM   #162
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

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BUT, when you eventually DO retire (and start withdrawing) you will continue to calculate a SWR to determine withdrawals?
Yes, I'm using the 4% number in my planning as most are. *In retirement (about 7 years away) I plan to use a yearly withdrawal amount for my "income". *Why? *It's easy to work with and it keeps our (my wife's and my) spending in line. *Now, I'm not planning on withdrawing a straight 4% but a fixed base of perhaps 3% with a variable topup (Sensible Withdrawals or galeno style or something else). I also plan to average out the variable withdrawal with a 3 to 6 year fixed income buffer.

That 3% isn't the absolute minimum that we could live on but it's the point at which it becomes more difficult to still do what we want. *If the economy, my portfolio choices, or whatever means that we have to cut back further then we will be able to - perhaps all 3rd world travel (plan to go Terhorst style for a while). *The fixed + variable systems have the benefit of "enforcing" frugality when dictated by the portfolio returns. *It seems that it's that small nudge early in the "loser" return sequences that makes all the difference in survivability.

What seems to be the main theme here is not the actual true future SWR percentage nor market timing but adaptability that is really required for (very) early retirement. *This is also been the conclusion on the MF REHP board despite attempts by some to go down the rabbit hole of figuring out the future return sequence so that the future true SWR can be calculated.

As a counter question, what would you use to size your yearly withdrawals if not some "SWR" number? *Would you withdraw some amount calculated based just on need without any reference to the portfolio? *How would you decide when to take extra withdrawls if your portfolio has done well? *How much extra?
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-02-2004, 12:16 PM   #163
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

Hyperborea
Quote:
As a counter question, what would you use to size your yearly withdrawals if not some "SWR" number? Would you withdraw some amount calculated based just on need without any reference to the portfolio? How would you decide when to take extra with drawls if your portfolio has done well? How much extra?
The traditional answer is to live off your dividends, never selling any shares of stock.

That is what therealchips has done. It has worked very well for him.

OTOH, his portfolio has grown a lot and he is now down to withdrawing 2% of his current balance. The fact that it is 2% is not necessarily related to the current dividend yield of the S&P500 index.

Have fun.

John R.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-02-2004, 12:30 PM   #164
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

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The traditional answer is to live off your dividends, never selling any shares of stock.

That is what therealchips has done. It has worked very well for him.

OTOH, his portfolio has grown a lot and he is now down to withdrawing 2% of his current balance.
I would question whether it has "worked very well for him" or not. Sure he's got a bigger portfolio now but are there things he would have liked to have done that he didn't? The money is only the means to an end and not the end in itself.

This is in my mind a problem and why I dislike this solution. I have no desire to leave a large inheritance and I wish to enjoy my money in my lifetime. Sure, I can do a lot of things for little money but if I had the extra I would certainly like to do some things that money lets you do: race cars in a local (or even national) amateur league; own a vintage guitar; take guitar lessons from some of the real masters; buy one of those really old bottles of scotch; rent a villa and invite my extended family to stay with us for the month; etc. This poor income and huge portfolio effect is only magnified if you retire very early in your 30's or 40's.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-02-2004, 12:55 PM   #165
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

Quote:
The traditional answer is to live off your dividends, never selling any shares of stock.

That is what therealchips has done. It has worked very well for him.
The brain's a little fuzzy, but I vaguely remember him having a pension - something you don't see a lot of any more. Guaranteed income is always nice. I could be all wet though.

arrete
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-02-2004, 12:59 PM   #166
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

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. . . How would one actually use the SWR number, once it's been calculated?
Take the SWR. Multiply it by 25. Divide the result by SQRT(treasury interest rate)*sin (PE). Write this number down and swing it over your head while you scream like a chicken.

This, of course, will not help you in your retirement but it will entertain your family for a few moments.

More seriously, I've only been retired for a year now and my wife has been retired for only several months. So I am still wondering how accurate my plans were and whether there are implications to those plans that I've overlooked. I would hope that I "test" my plans against my actual retirement less and less as FIRE continues. But I expect to use the tools available to me for several years just to buy some comfort with this new lifestyle.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-02-2004, 01:14 PM   #167
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

As another "dividend" liver-offer, here's my thoughts on that.

I dont exactly deprive myself but I'm not dumb about it.

We eat really good food but I make it myself and I shop at a really good but cheap and unfancy market. Heck we eat maine lobster 4-6 times a year and that aint cheap here on the left coast.

We have a nice bottle of wine or champagne every now and then, but I dont spend $25 on a bottle of wine to swill with a plate of spicy pasta.

I spend a lot of time doing things that bring me a lot of pleasure and cost little or nothing. Spending the day at the lake with the dogs throwing a ball for them is just as rewarding to me as spending a weekend at some expensive ski resort or owning a boat.

But I have a plasma tv and a home theater projector with dolby digital sound setup. I spent time researching and comparison shopping to get everything at rock bottom prices and cut some corners that I dont think matter much.

I buy 3-4 year old "beaters", like a BMW convertible and an Infiniti Q45. I'm really killing myself here.

I buy cheap crappy furniture, sometimes used, that looks decent and will hold together for 10-12 years. Because I have 3 cats sharpening their claws on it, chasing each other over it, and two dogs that have no idea what "get down!" means, unless its dog speak for "get up on that couch and drool on it!"

When I want to travel, I pack up the wife and the parents and the dogs in the SUV and we take a day trip to one of the cool places within a few hours drive. Once in a great while we'll get a motel room somewhere a days drive away and make a 2 day trip out of it. But then again I've flown a couple of million miles and been almost everywhere, and dont really have the urge to "be somewhere else". Here is good.

Since I dont have a mortgage, and I pay cash for everything and deep bargain shop, I can get by with the dividend method.

But heres the thing...some day when my portfolio is substantially enlarged, I might buy that boat. Or that house with a big spread of land. Or a new high def projector when those get cheap enough. Or maybe none of the above because stuff doesnt really make me any happier or more fulfilled. Even if I wait eight or ten years before making any large spends or increasing my withdrawal rate...hell I'll still be in my late 40's or early 50's and I DEFINITELY didnt deprive myself of much in my 20's and 30's.

That having been said, it you want to do a lot of "wealthy stuff", you wont make it on this method, and you might need to keep working to build up a big enough portfolio to keep doing that. Or just keep working period.

And theres nothing wrong with that. As long as you're happy with the tradeoff, and you've also thought about why doing those things feels good and you're doing them for the right reasons.

*****'s "new luxuries" suit me just fine.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-02-2004, 01:41 PM   #168
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

Quote:
As another "dividend" liver-offer, here's my thoughts on that.

I dont exactly deprive myself but I'm not dumb about it.
That's fine but setting up a portfolio to live off only the dividends has one of two results. *You work longer to build the portfolio to the size where that is possible or you live on less yearly from the portfolio. *In fact, if you could live off the lower amount then you could have pulled the plug sooner with other withdrawal schemes so there really is only the result of working longer.

Quote:
That having been said, it you want to do a lot of "wealthy stuff", you wont make it on this method, and you might need to keep working to build up a big enough portfolio to keep doing that. *Or just keep working period.
I have no burning desire for a lot of "wealthy stuff" but I have no desire to leave a large inheritance. **In the words of Errol Flynn: Any man who has $10,000 left when he dies is a failure.

I already autocross now and will likely resume that in retirement after we stop our "perpetual traveller" phase. *Having more money to spend now rather than leave it all to a cat or the local university would let me run nationally.

I haven't logged a million miles (though still quite a few) and there is a big difference between travelling back and forth between Boston and San Francisco twice a month for business meetings and really exploring and living in another culture. Even going to India for business meetings is a big step away from riding the trains around and exploring the country.

The renting of a villa to spend time with the extended family would be great to possibly get everyone together. *The old scotch would be great to try. Oldest I've tried is the 25 year olds and even then I haven't bought one myself.

However, I'm not about to give up FIRE for those though some of those like living in other countries may actually make it more viable and others like my guitar playing can be a fallback for income if things get bad. *It comes back again to the fact money is not an end in itself but the means to an end. *Building my portfolio balance up just for the sake of building it up to impress the old codgers at the retirement home is not my goal.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-02-2004, 05:22 PM   #169
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

Quote:
In the words of Errol Flynn: Any man who has $10,000 left when he dies is a failure.
In the words of TH, anyone who lives 20 years longer than they thought they would and runs out of money wishes he was a failure

Quote:
I haven't logged a million miles (though still quite a few) and there is a big difference between travelling back and forth between Boston and San Francisco twice a month for business meetings and really exploring and living in another culture. Even going to India for business meetings is a big step away from riding the trains around and exploring the country.
True. I've been on just about every island in the carribean, most central american countries, and just about every country in europe. I always "padded" the business trips to make vacations and plenty of them were purely for pleasure. Living in another culture full time would be interesting. Just not sure I'd want to work another 10 years to accommodate it.

Quote:
The renting of a villa to spend time with the extended family would be great to possibly get everyone together. The old scotch would be great to try. Oldest I've tried is the 25 year olds and even then I haven't bought one myself.
The extended family can fit in the house i'm in now, but somehow that doesnt sound like a lot of fun...guess it depends on the family I like a good scotch too, and plenty of room in the budget for a special bottle now and then...the infrequency is what makes it special.

Quote:
However, I'm not about to give up FIRE for those though some of those like living in other countries may actually make it more viable and others like my guitar playing can be a fallback for income if things get bad. It comes back again to the fact money is not an end in itself but the means to an end. Building my portfolio balance up just for the sake of building it up to impress the old codgers at the retirement home is not my goal.
Amen!

I've found that a lot of people who want to travel, buy stuff, hold special events, yada yada yada are often doing it to make themselves feel better about themselves, or in the spirit of making someone else feel better about them. I feel pretty good, and as far as how others feel about me...well...@#%$@# 'em.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-02-2004, 10:45 PM   #170
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

Hyperborea asks:
As a counter question, what would you use to size your yearly withdrawals if not some "SWR" number? Would you withdraw some amount calculated based just on need without any reference to the portfolio? How would you decide when to take extra withdrawls if your portfolio has done well? How much extra?

We withdraw just what we need to pay the bills (and live comfortably). Our minimum withdrawal rate is then determined by things like the the price of electricity (rather than historical returns, Monte Carlo or mathematical gesticulation).

Anything above the minimum withdrawal rate is determined by recent portolio returns ... and what luxuries we want to engage in - which is entirely unpredictable

This is much like what I've described here:

http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/sens...ithdrawals.htm

except that, in a spreadsheet, it's difficult to incorporate:
"Our portfolio did quite well. How about China this year?"
"Naw ... I'd prefer to buy that 50" TV"


Of course, whatever one does (rationally), one can argue:
"you're just calculating a SWR" :P

P.S.
If I ever suggested to my wife that I have a wonderful formula for determining what we can withdraw this year, she'd burst out laughing and tell me:
"swing it over your head and scream like a chicken"

... as salaryguru suggests.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-03-2004, 03:22 AM   #171
 
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

I've been chewing over what gummy has to say and
one thought bubbles to the surface.

As most of you know, I think SWR conversation is fun
and interesting, I just don't really use it myself except
in a very general way. My wife and I have separate
finances and share household expenses. This was
worked out very unscientifically. As long as my net
worth keeps increasing I don't worry much. I do have
back up plans to my back up plans to my back up plans
for the day when this stops. Under the best case
scenario it never will, but even under the worst case
I can't see being forced back to work.

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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-03-2004, 03:35 AM   #172
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

If I ever suggested to my wife that I have a wonderful formula for determining what we can withdraw this year, she'd burst out laughing

My wife possesses the most important qualification for the job, the patience of a saint. Still, we have managed to figure out a way to meld our very different individual perspectives into a combined mutual perspective that so far at least I think has produced pretty darn good results.

She gets anxious from time to time about our financial circumstances, which I think it is fair to describe as unusual. My stock response is to suggest that she look over the numbers showing that we are in better shape that most of our friends. She acknowledges this, but then adds the observation that "some of our friends have two paychecks and no kids, and we instead have two kids and no paychecks." I note that she knew when she married me that I wasn't the sort of guy to get too hung up by petty details like that.

The other side of the story is that, when she sees the power of a theory reveal itself in practical results, she is better than me at taking care of the detail work needed to make the theories work; she is the one who records the numbers in the budget and lets me know when I have been renting too many videos or whatever, for example.

There's one story illustrating this phenomenon that left a big impression on me. Before I pushed too hard on the Retire Early thing, I suggested that we make a plan to save enough to pay off our mortage in about two year's time. She humored me: "That would be a nice thing to do, honey; we should give that one a try." She is the one who sends in the checks to cover the various bills each month. Less than two years later, she no longer needed to send in that big one for the mortgage. That sent the message about the power of effective saving in a way that discussions of my theories about how to achieve financial independence early in life never had. Once the ideas connected with her in a way that made sense to a person with her personality type, she was the spouse who became the real saving vulture.

I am a person who can come up with six theories on how to save effectively before breakfast. That's just a skill that God happened to give to me. Execution, on the other hand, tends not to be my strong point. My wife is responsible for execution of much of our personal plan. When it comes to my SWR theories, JWR1945 has been kind enough to take on the task of providing the data-based proof that many need to see before the ideas are worthwhile in their eyes.

What I love about discussion boards is that it allows people to join efforts and thereby generate lots of workable, tested, scrutinized ideas that are more valuable than the ones that any of the various segments of the community could have come up with on their own. We all have different skill sets. The way it works is that you give when you can give, and you take when there is something you need to take.

I have given a whole bunch over the past five years. I have taken a whole bunch too. I am not an altruist. My book is ten times better than what it would have been had I not spent thousands of hours putting together the 2500 posts I have put forward at this point. Putting those posts together forced me to think harder. The feedback I received helped me discard stupid stuff and enrich the insights. And of course there were lots of insights that I picked up from posts put forward by others that I never would have dreamed up on my own had I spent my whole life thinking about this stuff.

JWR1945 has read my book. He can tell you that one of the themes that runs through it is the benefit that comes from joining internet discussions boards to learn about how to retire early. I don't want people just to read the book. I want them to read the book, and then come join our movement. I want them to learn from us and us to learn from them. An important purpose of the book is to build the community.

Intercst will be thanked on the Acknowledgments page for the efforts he has put forth in building the community. He played an important role, as you all know. Dory36 will be thanked too, of course. And Wanderer and raddr and BenSolar and lots of your other favorites. Lots of people will be thanked by name and each community member who contributed a single post will be thanked in a general sense for adding the brick he or she added to the great big wonderful building we have constructed over the years. I will get any royalties generated from the book. But the reality is that the development of the ideas that drive the book was a group project. I think of this book as our book.

It is not the last book we are going to write together. It is only the first. But the first time you do something is often the most exciting time. I expect it is going to be an exciting adventure for us all watching it take off together.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-03-2004, 03:53 AM   #173
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

John Galt:
"... SWR conversation is fun and interesting, I just don't really use it myself ..."
My sentiments exactly.
However, it occurs so often on discussion forums that I've been writing about it for years - and having all that fun doing so!

The curious thing is that, in all those years, I've only found one person who uses it after they retire and start withdrawing - that's *****, who may not really be retired - and withdrawing

When I've asked (on other forums) who uses SWR (to determine current, not future withdrawals), I usually get a lecture on how to calculate it, how important it is, a jillion links to essays on the subject etc. etc.

I'm hoping that, one day, I run across somebuddy who actually does some mathematical (or other) analysis to determine a SWR and actually follows what the mathematics regurgitates.

*****:
"... when she sees the power of a theory reveal itself in practical results ..."
Do you really calculate a SWR and use it to determine your withdrawals from a portfolio
... or are you simply reorganizing your finances (which my wife would clearly appreciate).

About your book:
I hope you have better luck than I.
After years of writing (fiction) and running through several agents I gave up.

http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/novels.htm

Perhaps writing about financial independence is more attractive to publishers.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-03-2004, 05:47 AM   #174
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

Quote:
How would one actually use the SWR number, once it's been calculated?
As a reality check to make sure your plans are reasonably realistic. As long as actual spending does not exceed the SWR, you are probably ok. If you are comfortable living on less than 1%, this is fine. You do not have to withdraw any more just to reach any magic number. If you need to withdraw 10% to survive, the SWR tells you to go back to the drawing board and make a new plan.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-03-2004, 05:48 AM   #175
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

Quote:
I'm hoping that, one day, I run across somebuddy who actually does some mathematical (or other) analysis to determine a SWR and actually follows what the mathematics regurgitates.
What, just for the novelty? Or do you hope to gain insight from such a person?

If you're looking for people who place their future faith purely in mathematics, look at those who claim market movents are predictable via technical analysis; some seem to deeply believe if you can find the right numbers to plug into the equation that you can predict the future. Perhaps everyone who made it to retirment learned this doesn't work reliably?


We want to aviod running out of money when we're 95 and arthritic, and we don't want to work until 78 if we don't need to. So somehow we need to learn what point in that range we feel comfortable. I think SWR tools were created to help set up boundaries: now we can make a decent case for something between living off real dividends and 4% of the initial balance as being safer than 6-8% previously recommended by "experts" and enabling earlier retirement than dividends only.

But this isn't anything new, this is what you, gummy, and all the other retirees here are already doing. I'll just watch for discussions on which brands of dog food taste better to determine which SWR's were really safe.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-03-2004, 06:23 AM   #176
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

Michael:
"If you need to withdraw 10% to survive, the SWR tells you to go back to the drawing board and make a new plan."
If you need 10% to survive, then going back to the drawing board don't hardly help much

Either that, or the 10% survival requirements were fictitious. (If you can reorganize your finances to reduce the 10%, then you didn't need that much in the first place.)

For me 'n the wife, something like 4% is just fine, but we can easily cut back to 1 - 2%.
What we need for survival is 0%.

BigMoney:
"... do you hope to gain insight from such a person?"
Nope. I'm curious about so many things ... and that's one of 'em.
Although I think that the 4% Rule is a useful guide, I can't see much use in periodic SWR calculations (while withdrawing).
It's hard believe that anybuddy actually does this. If so, it'd be quite interesting (for me).

***** ... about your book:
Would it be helpful to have a CD inside the back cover (as so many financial books seem to have these days)?
If so, I'd be happy to have you use any or all of the gummy_stuff CD.
I'm not asking for any monetary rewards. It's just that, at my age, my website will self-destruct soon enuff and if a few copies continue to exist (after I stop existing) that'd be great

If you think it'd be useful, I'll send y'all a CD (for free)
... and you're free to do with it as you wish. You can even change the name to *****_stuff
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-03-2004, 06:32 AM   #177
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

Do you really calculate a SWR and use it to determine your withdrawals from a portfolio ... or are you simply reorganizing your finances?

I am currently invested in TIPS, ibonds, and CDs (and my house, if you count that). It's easy to determine SWRs for these asset classes; the returns are highly predictable. Stocks are a tougher case because their returns are volatile. I don't want to limit myself to these predictable-return asset classes for the long term, however, because I also want to take advantage of the growth potential of stocks. So I need to know at what times I can afford (given my 4 percent take-out number) to get into stocks.

It was this question that I was askng in the kick-off post for the Great SWR Debate. On May 13, 2002, prices for stocks had come down a bit from where they were on August 1, 2000 (my retirement date). So the SWR for stocks had gone up. The returns paid on TIPS and ibonds and CDs had come down. So the SWR on those asset classes had gone down. I was trying to determine whether the SWR for stocks had come close enough to the SWR for the alternate asset classes for me to be able to afford a small purchase of stocks.

It helps to know that when I was doing my SWR work in the mid-90s, I was not planning on writing books on how to achieve financial independence early in life. I was doing my research solely for my own benefit, for the purpose of putting together my own plan. I did not need to know all sorts of details about the SWR for stocks. All I needed to know was whether it made sense for me personally to be invested in stocks at the prices then prevailing. I determined that it did not, and I got out. And then I turned my focus to other questions.

I always knew that someday I was going to need to do more work to determine the SWR of stocks at various valuation levels. But I had lots of other things to keep me busy until May 2002. At that time, my desire to add to my knowledge on stock SWRs was getting more intense. It was something I was thinking about a lot in those days. On top of that, the Motley Fool board was suffering from a dearth of on-topic posting and I thought that putting up something on the data-based SWR concept might help out. So I went ahead with it.

Today, I have lots of information to help me come up with a SWR for stocks that I think is more or less on the mark. I have insights from Bernstein, and from raddr, and from JWR1945, and from a number of others. You put all that information together, and I think you can get a number in the right ballpark.

I use that information when I made my annual adjustments to my plan. I don't prepare spreadsheets. I probably would blow up a third-world country if I tried to push the various buttons needed to make that happen. So I am not preparing a formal SWR analysis each time I update my plan. But, yes, I am using the fruits of SWR analysis to inform my portfolio allocation strategies.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-03-2004, 07:08 AM   #178
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

I'd be happy to have you use any or all of the gummy_stuff CD.

That's an extemely generous offer, Gummy. Thanks so much for putting it forward.

My book is aimed at a general readership, including lots of people who (like me) get an uneasy feeling when they see numbers appear on a printed page. Including a CD with a lot of numbers stuff with the actual book would send the wrong signal.

That said, I can think of other ways in which I might be able to make use of the work you have done in the work that I am doing. I have been doing a lot of prep work for a web site that I now expect to have up by the end of this year. I certainly will be including a link to your site. I believe as most others who know about your site do that the work you have put into it has done a lot of good for a lot of middle-class investors.

I do not have a complete sense at this point as to what all I will be able to include at my site. It might be a good idea to have a section where I provide more detail-oriented stuff, including the sorts of materials set forth at your site. I also am interested in having a section where I hope to offer for sale various PDF reports--the two by intercst, the one by TheBadger, my old Soapbox report, a collection of the best stuff by JWR1945, and so on. It might be a good thing if we could take your materials and collect them in a PDF report. My thought is that you would get a share of the revenues for having prepared the materials in the report, and I would get a share for selling it through my site.

I would love to work with you on that sort of arrangement. If an arrangement along those lines holds appeal, let me know and we can work out details through private-mail messages. I probably will not have too much time to work out details for awhile. But if you wanted to start thinking about how you might organize your material for presentation in a PDF report, that would be great from my perspective.
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-03-2004, 07:56 AM   #179
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

*****:
The CD includes everything on my website
... except pics of my grandkids

It's over 100Mbytes and includes over 3000 files.

At my age, just the thought of redoing any of it in some other format (like PDF) gives me coronary tribulations. In fact, the CD was created to avoid e-mail** which asked me to put all that stuff into a book :-/

I've offered to others the opportunity to take what they want ... so long as I don't have to do anything

** I actually feel that a webpage style is so much better than (most? all?) other formats since the reader can click on links where a window pops open to explain a term. or provide another tutorial.

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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years
Old 04-03-2004, 10:20 AM   #180
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Re: SWR of 6.21% for 26 years

At my age, just the thought of redoing any of it in some other format *(like PDF) gives me coronary tribulations.

Gummy:

I'll send you a private mail message. I would like to have a copy of the CD if you are willing to send me one.

I don't know today what will be on the site in enough detail to say for sure that I will be able to use the material, but I think there is a good chance that I will. It might be that I could use parts of it in a section of the site reserved for more technical discussions. Or it might be that I could create a PDF report from some of the material myself.

I would need to get some other things out of the way first before I could make a decision. But if you send the CD, I will put a note on my calendar to be back in touch with your at a later date. The agreement would be that I would not go ahead with any ideas without getting your approval. The advantage of having the CD is just that having it on hand and going through it might give me some additional ideas.

Another thought that comes to me now is that we could just offer the CD itself for sale. I know that there are people today who copy materials from your web site for their personal files (I have done so), and that it costs almost nothing to make a CD copy of the material. Just offering the CD for an aspiring early retiree's personal use gives people an option they did not possess yesterday. That would be a no-muss, no-fuss way to expand the reach of the insights.

It might be that the product would not be quite as marketable that way, but I see no possible downside. And it might be that some people would prefer to get the whole shebang on a CD.

If anyone else has ideas of reports or CDs or whatever that they might want to sell on my site, please just send me a private-mail message. My general philosophy is that I would like to provide access to as many possible products dealing with this subject matter as possible. When I started looking for material on how to retire early, there was not a lot out there. There's a lot more available today. But I like to think that there is going to be a whole bunch more five years from now.

There's little financial risk involved in putting something up for sale on a web site and seeing whether people are interested or not. In some cases, there will only be a small number of people interested, but so what? Getting good information on how to retire early out to a small number of people looking for it can make a big difference in those people's lives.
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