T-Theory - Secular Bear Market - Market down into June/July?

[dex]

There are some people interested in technical analysis. That is a large field.
T-Theory has an interesting take.
I'd suggest just getting his general concepts and if you are interested in it start to listen to his posts.


Market down into June/July?

http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/ttoaudio20100822a.mp3

http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/envelopettheory-20100820pdf.pdf

http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/adtsc20100820.pdf

Here is an 80 year view.
http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/megatband20090430.pdf

Here is 40 year view & Depression
http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/40ycycledepressions.pdf

 

[dex]

American Shareholders OnLine

returns here

 

[fritz]

Dex,

I did a little digging on this from your postings. Appears that the T-Theory creator, Terry Laundry, manages about $30M with a client listing under 100 through Fidelity Mutual Funds (per their SEC filing this year). His investment advisory company - American Shareholders Online (ASIC), is made up of one other employee, Paula Burke. They indirectly manage their clients funds via Fidelity for aro. 1.3% avg. annual fee per client. Appears to be an ideal arrangement for removing investor money management concerns.

You posted their earnings from their online website. I pulled the numbers from that listing. From what I've determined: average since inception (32 yrs) is 15.8% vs. SP @ 12.5%. Working backwards in 10 year increments: 1st 10 yrs 64% vs. 22% SP, 2nd 10 yrs 14% vs. 18%, and 3rd 10yrs 24% vs. 18%. Appears to have beaten the SP two out of my three 10 yr increments.

Maybe I just plain missed it, but there doesn't appear to be much info on what they do for their money - sample portfolio, investor communications, or example guidance scenario (other than podcasts/charts). Hard to determine how they achieve investment success. They list earnings comparatives in gross returns. We all understand the tax efficiencies (lack of turnover) of investing in the SP, but there is no mention of investor's portfolio turnover in their online materials. This has to be a significant consideration, given the basis of T Theory. I could see this putting a good dent in one's after-tax returns, compared to investing in just the SP.

Not knocking this guy - appears to be able to pick up on market volatility with his T Theory creation. Just not sure that when all is said and done (tax-wise), folks subscribing to his management company, are coming out significantly on top. Done any further digging on this yourself?

 

[dex]

I've been watching and listening to him for 7+ months. I'm impressed with his long term analysis of the stock market and trends. He has an engineering background I believe and his thought process appeals to me. The symmetry of the 'T' is difficult for me to buy into but the cash accumulation/spending phases I think is correct.

Basically, he uses a few tools - treasury bills, High Yield Corp Bond - FAGIX, Gold - Tocqueville MF, Stocks. He moves from one asset to another according to what his model says. They do not trade in and out of these funds very much - maybe 3 trades a year; I asked them. They also don't charge the management fee until they move your money into an investment - it looks like a fair approach.

I think it is worth your time to listen to what he has to say for awhile. I am on the same page as him as to being in a secular bear market. As to a depression like environment between '13-16 I also think is a good possibility but we might call it a double dip or sever recession.

So you can see why preservation of capital is key to me at this time.

I'm thinking of opening an account - but I'm on the fence about it.

 

[haha]

Not knocking this guy - appears to be able to pick up on market volatility with his T Theory creation. Just not sure that when all is said and done (tax-wise), folks subscribing to his management company, are coming out significantly on top. Done any further digging on this yourself?

Many people have the bulk of their invested assets in tax deferred accounts, so for them this would not be a concern. Also, anyone would be free to manage his taxable money one way, and let Landry or any other active manager manage the tax deferred money. So I don't see any general problem due to this issue.

 

[fritz]

ASIC doesn't have any high net worth investors according to their filing, but I also am skeptical that most of ASIC's clients are using the T-Theory (please forgive me) market-timing style of advisory service with their retirement funds. View ASIC's style as somewhat risky, and that those clients using his service would be using (not all of) their more discretionary taxable investments available.

Dex, did you obtain information as to their typical investor?

 

[dex]

Dex, did you obtain information as to their typical investor?

No - here is the info I got from them.

Thank-you for your interest in American Shareholders Investment Corporation. I have highlighted answers to your questions and provid estimates that may be subject to change with market opportunities. If you hae any other questions I would be happy to chat with you via phone. Please call our toll# for more details.
Paula Burke, President

I'm am looking at your adviser service and have a few questions.
1. Establishing an account. I do not have a Fidelity account.

Do I send all the forms - including opening a Fidelity account to you? Yes all applications and our agreement will be sent back to us via FedEx. ​

Or, do I send the Fidelity opening account to Fidelity and the other forms to you? No, you must utilize the applications list at our www.amshar.com web page.

2. Approximately, how many trades - range* - are made per year? This is tough question but a ballpark may be 8 trades a year on average.This is not necessarily round trip. It depends on whether we diversifying into several sectors. This year we traded less as we held the Fidelity Cap and Income and two other mutual funds for the majority of the year. We recently sold them. ​

3. Approximately, how many funds - range* - might be used at a particular period of time. We may use 3-5 funds at a time.

4. I see that Mr. Laundry is 70. He is in excellent health and not planning to retire for sometime.
How much longer will he be managing funds?

Does he have a successor identified that is well versed in his T Theory? Not yet but will be selecting
candidates in time. There is a board of directors with extensive stock market background.

*No need for a lengthy answer; I understand investments are market outlook driven.

 

[haha]

ASIC doesn't have any high net worth investors according to their filing, but I also am skeptical that most of ASIC's clients are using the T-Theory (please forgive me) market-timing style of advisory service with their retirement funds. View ASIC's style as somewhat risky, and that those clients using his service would be using (not all of) their more discretionary taxable investments available.

As you wish. I was just pointing out that surely one could decide these things for himself, rather than getting the negative input that it would be tax ineficient. Of course it would be, that is not real hard to see. But there are many peaople and many situations where that might not matter.

I should point out that money is money, so there is no reason other than writing off possible losses why money in a retirement account is any more precious than money outside one. In fact, there are good arguments the other way.



Ha

 

[fritz]

As you wish. I was just pointing out that surely one could decide these things for himself, rather than getting the negative input that it would be tax ineficient. Of course it would be, that is not real hard to see. But there are many peaople and many situations where that might not matter.

I should point out that money is money, so there is no reason other than writing off possible losses why money in a retirement account is any more precious than money outside one. In fact, there are good arguments the other way.

Ha

I would want to know the tax efficiency of ASIC if I were to invest taxable funds with them. This is provided by all fund companies per the SEC. Why suffer the extra costs and speculative nature over the long run, if tax inefficiencies pretty much erase the < 3.5% edge of ASIC over the S&P 500 (over the long haul figures +/-32years).

I don't think most would risk core retirement savings in this manner. Not too many speculate with their (taxable/tax-deferred) investments with ASIC as it is.