Google "Tech Momentum" today, and find every financial entity with an article on the subject... mostly using words like overreach, or adjustment or pullback or correction...
Without going into the technicals of establishing value, I wonder if there may be a deeper reason to question the value of Tech over the long haul. For many years, market value came from building on a physical base, ie. the Industrial revolution, or the growth of commodities, like coal, steel, and oil. Factories, transportation (railroads, autos and airlines) and services... serving physical needs as clothing, food and housing. All of these "values" have in large part been people-and-structural dependent.
Jump ahead to "tech"... by and large, not physical entities, nor, at the end point of the product, even reliant on labor at all.
Build your own tech product, and then consider how it would stand up, absent the copyright process. At what point is it unique in a sense that it could withstand competition that could be initated at a lower cost?
The tech in question, is not solar or wind power... each of which is based with physical product, but the ethereal items that exist only in their use, and have little or no protections from future competition. Google, NetFlix, Priceline, Facebook and the recent Candy Crush, either already have competition, or can have clone-like competitors, without a physical base.
There is nothing new here. The only question about future value, rests in the ability to stay ahead of the game... and to constantly innovate OR to maintain a kind of monopoly, by buying up every new product to incorporate into the current monoliths.
The "Tech" part is not limited to the social media, or even the use of tech to streamline and improve the current mechanical operations of any business, but to totally invent new processes in areas of biotech and genetic research. No longer the vast laboratories of glass, metal and fluids that represent the older parts of the Pharmaceutical companies, but studies of theoretical and invisible mathematic probabilities. A quantum leap in tech that is still in its infancy.
Now, one more part of the subject of tech as we know it in the area of society... the social connectivity and the underlying basis that is needed to sustain the value. Is it advertising? An if so, is there a limit to this in terms of real dollars. Is it the cost of the social grid? The phones, the tablets and computers the provide the mesh of today's society. Is there a limit here?
Do you see technology as a continuum? A part of the business cycle to be played out over many... perhaps 20 years? Or are we on a downside curve, where the technology may expand (as it will) but the profitability will decrease.
I am in no way suggesting that today's downturn in tech stocks portend a bubble collapse. It's just taking a look at rapid growth and excitement that has driven up the price of Tech stocks and then trying to analyse the structure that is supporting this growth.
So, is this a rational concern, or just musings of one who is not close enough to undertand the business? I would be very interested in any theories that say we are not at a peak of Technology as a dollar value, but at the beginning of a continuing trend.
Without going into the technicals of establishing value, I wonder if there may be a deeper reason to question the value of Tech over the long haul. For many years, market value came from building on a physical base, ie. the Industrial revolution, or the growth of commodities, like coal, steel, and oil. Factories, transportation (railroads, autos and airlines) and services... serving physical needs as clothing, food and housing. All of these "values" have in large part been people-and-structural dependent.
Jump ahead to "tech"... by and large, not physical entities, nor, at the end point of the product, even reliant on labor at all.
Build your own tech product, and then consider how it would stand up, absent the copyright process. At what point is it unique in a sense that it could withstand competition that could be initated at a lower cost?
The tech in question, is not solar or wind power... each of which is based with physical product, but the ethereal items that exist only in their use, and have little or no protections from future competition. Google, NetFlix, Priceline, Facebook and the recent Candy Crush, either already have competition, or can have clone-like competitors, without a physical base.
There is nothing new here. The only question about future value, rests in the ability to stay ahead of the game... and to constantly innovate OR to maintain a kind of monopoly, by buying up every new product to incorporate into the current monoliths.
The "Tech" part is not limited to the social media, or even the use of tech to streamline and improve the current mechanical operations of any business, but to totally invent new processes in areas of biotech and genetic research. No longer the vast laboratories of glass, metal and fluids that represent the older parts of the Pharmaceutical companies, but studies of theoretical and invisible mathematic probabilities. A quantum leap in tech that is still in its infancy.
Now, one more part of the subject of tech as we know it in the area of society... the social connectivity and the underlying basis that is needed to sustain the value. Is it advertising? An if so, is there a limit to this in terms of real dollars. Is it the cost of the social grid? The phones, the tablets and computers the provide the mesh of today's society. Is there a limit here?
Do you see technology as a continuum? A part of the business cycle to be played out over many... perhaps 20 years? Or are we on a downside curve, where the technology may expand (as it will) but the profitability will decrease.
I am in no way suggesting that today's downturn in tech stocks portend a bubble collapse. It's just taking a look at rapid growth and excitement that has driven up the price of Tech stocks and then trying to analyse the structure that is supporting this growth.
So, is this a rational concern, or just musings of one who is not close enough to undertand the business? I would be very interested in any theories that say we are not at a peak of Technology as a dollar value, but at the beginning of a continuing trend.
