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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 09:52 AM   #21
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
MOVI released a PR that indicated a not-unreasonable same store sales guidance range and said that they will get $50 million in merger synergies by next year.*
When CEOs starts spouting off about "merger synergies," that's usually a sign to run for the exits.
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 09:56 AM   #22
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

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Originally Posted by vinhmen
When CEOs starts spouting off about "merger synergies," that's usually a sign to run for the exits.
Hmmmm, maybe before the deal is done, that's the case. After the deal is done? I think its a different story. The guy owns a quarter of the company, so no way does he want to upset the apple cart.
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 10:37 AM   #23
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Welll, after 24 hours of wondering if I threw good money after bad, it looks like "jumping into the breach" is going to pay off.* MOVI released a PR that indicated a not-unreasonable same store sales guidance range and said that they will get $50 million in merger synergies by next year.* With 32 million shares out, that is a lot of merger-related juice.* Stock is up 4+% in the after hours market.* Plus there are another 9+ million shares short...
It is questionable that this sort of, good news can over come the negatives. My own thought is that the shorts may very well overcome the longs.* The encouraging afterhours trade looked up, but weak.
I'd be careful here, think Krispy Kreme.
I'm now monitoring for a blow off move down at which time I may do some options work as I did several years ago with this stock.
Good Luck
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 10:51 AM   #24
 
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Here are some thoughts on the problems with video rental stores:

First Problem: Online Delivery

At some point soon, someone will figure out how to make online delivery of videos work. *Technically it is feasible right now. *The only things to work out are the property rights issues and perhaps some logistical issues.

Once that happens, viewing a video just means going to a web site, choosing from every movie ever made, with instant access to reviews, etc., and clicking the download button. * You may have to wait a few hours -- that is you may have to choose your videos ahead of time.

Netflix and Blockbuster are working on implementing this.

When this happens, brick and mortar rental stores will become obsolete overnight. *I predict that in five years, there will be no video rental outlets.

Second problem: TIVO.

Since we got our TIVO-like digital video recorder (Panasonic, no monthly fee), we haven't rented any videos. *We used to rent plenty. *Instead, every week or so I bring up the display of upcoming movies and click on each one I want to record. *I only have basic cable, and still record 4 movies per week. *I just went and checked: we currently have 8 movies stacked up to watch when we get a chance. *

There will always be houses without Internet or cable or TIVOs, but probably not enough to support video rental stores.
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 10:59 AM   #25
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Hmmmm, maybe before the deal is done, that's the case.* After the deal is done?* I think its a different story.* The guy owns a quarter of the company, so no way does he want to upset the apple cart.
I was being glib, but my point is beware company PRs that herald synergy or some other nebulous concept over hard numbers and facts.* If growth, income or market share prospects were favorable you bet they'd let us know.* Remember all the 'synergy' trumpeted for AOL/Time Warner ...*
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 11:19 AM   #26
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Hmmmm, maybe before the deal is done, that's the case.* After the deal is done?* I think its a different story.* The guy owns a quarter of the company, so no way does he want to upset the apple cart.
Eh, the technicals are way oversold. Bought a little more today.

Sure hope this isn't how the thought process went for WorldBook Encyclopedia or Dexter Shoes!
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 11:27 AM   #27
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

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Originally Posted by Nords
Eh, the technicals are way oversold.* Bought a little more today.

Sure hope this isn't how the thought process went for WorldBook Encyclopedia or Dexter Shoes!
Nords, what is a reasonable :virtual stop" price here? I wouldn't actually put an order in, but at some point I do have to consider my pain threshhold (something I have never done in the past).

Oh well. Regardless of what happens with this name, I have learned my lesson on sell discipline.
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 11:28 AM   #28
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

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Originally Posted by TromboneAl
At some point soon, someone will figure out how to make online delivery of videos work. Technically it is feasible right now. The only things to work out are the property rights issues and perhaps some logistical issues.
The delivery isn't a problem. MPAA is suing people to try to stop people delivering online. Was going to say more, but it's a conversation that leads nowhere. Point is the tech is available; the problem, depending upon your point of view, is 'piracy' (arrrrrr!) or customers not wanting to pay for something intangible and nontransferrable (if/when copy protection is effective).

Anyway, thought about jumping in on this when Brewer posted, but my spare money is earmarked for a drop or drought in income later this year. Plus it would've been work and learning new things to double-check things myself. I appreciate the tip from a seasoned board vet, though.
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 11:46 AM   #29
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

It's Friday, the FED meets next week, the overall market is still overbought, gas prices are killing the little guy, MOVI is clearly in the grips of the shorts.*
Wait for the movie title "BIG Blow off in MOVI Drops stock to under $13.
Buy popcorn and soda and play MOVI for a quick pop.* Sell and leave the theatre.
Option 2: If you have big losses, hope for the best.* If it doesn't happen by year end, learn to love the tax break you have.
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 11:49 AM   #30
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Give Brew a break or in fact buy him a beer for posting stock recos for those of us that like to buy some individual stocks. *Guy does his homework. *I did not buy any MOVI but I recognize sound reasoning.

TboneAl - *I don't believe what you mentioned will replace the rental biz. *Hurt it yes but replace it no. *I don't think you are the average customer. *You are obviously more tech savy than most and are comfortable working with gadgets & ordering goods over the net. *MOVI is still entrenched in small towns, many of which are stuck in the 50s/60s. *I know plenty of people that don't want to fool with TIVO/Netflix and would rather drive down the street to pick up a movie. * * *

Nords - It can easily look like another Dexter/World Book but not so much IMHO. *Dexter was a victim of outsourcing, just couldn't compete with the other shoe producers that moved overseas. *World Book sells information, the net is whatever World Book has to offer and it comes faster and much cheaper.

Moody's and S&P downgraded the debt & I imagine it had to do with the surge in current liab + stores being shut down due to Katrina. *As long as MOVI can integrate the 2 chains successfully all is well. *Shorts will cover soon.
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 11:58 AM   #31
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
Second problem: TIVO.

Since we got our TIVO-like digital video recorder (Panasonic, no monthly fee), we haven't rented any videos. *We used to rent plenty. *Instead, every week or so I bring up the display of upcoming movies and click on each one I want to record. *I only have basic cable, and still record 4 movies per week. *I just went and checked: we currently have 8 movies stacked up to watch when we get a chance. *
That's what I thought when I bought TIVO about a year ago.* *So far it's done pretty much nothing good.* *

Maybe the key is "TIVO-like recorder with no monthly fee"* **
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 12:08 PM   #32
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
When this happens, brick and mortar rental stores will become obsolete overnight.* I predict that in five years, there will be no video rental outlets.

Second problem: TIVO.
You need to spend a few hours watching the typical video store customers-- my parents-in-law-- "using" their computer and their DVR.* My FIL recently upgraded to a 56K modem but he sees no reason to abandon Win98 (mostly because he knows nothing about the subject).* The DVR has given them endless hours of frustration and arguments entertainment as they scream at each other discuss who's accidentally deleted recording what for whom and sort among all their remotes cluelessly punching buttons what they pray plan to watch next.

For those of you without parents, Jay Leno used to do a routine on teaching his folks to use the answering machine he bought for them.* Same thing here-- as long as my parents-in-law are around then Blockbuster & Movie Gallery have nothing to fear.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Nords, what is a reasonable :virtual stop" price here?* I wouldn't actually put an order in, but at some point I do have to consider my pain threshhold (something I have never done in the past).
When I bought at $21.09 & $19.50 I used a stop at $17.90.* That's outside the Bollinger bands (more than two standard deviations away from the price) and below the whole number so that the market makers couldn't easily flush you out on short-term volatility.* Didn't take long to get there, did it?* But the sell-stop was less than $14.* (Note to self:* use these more often if you find an attractive small-cap value stock.)* Setting a $17.90 stop for a $19.50 buy was pretty tight but the stock was oversold, the technicals were turning up, blah blah.

At $13.70 I'll give this sucker down to $10.85.* (A little more than 20% and below the whole-dollar number.)* I sure hope we're not going further into unexplored territory...

Quote:
Originally Posted by wildcat
Give Brew a break or in fact buy him a beer for posting stock recos for those of us that like to buy some individual stocks. *Guy does his homework. *I did not buy any MOVI but I recognize sound reasoning.
I second that!* When it comes to stocks & discussion boards, honesty & practicing what you preach are all too rare.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wildcat
Nords - It can easily look like another Dexter/World Book but not so much IMHO.* Dexter was a victim of outsourcing, just couldn't compete with the other shoe producers that moved overseas.* World Book sells information, the net is whatever World Book has to offer and it comes faster and much cheaper.
Well, I'm not praying yet but I am gulping and looking at my analysis.* I think the best thing to do now is to go surfing.

Buffett bought WorldBook only a few months before Microsoft came out with their encyclopedia on a CD.* (Of course this was before Warren & Bill became best buddies.)* I'm just hoping the same disruption isn't occurring here... and of course if I was short I'd be dancing.* But the shorts are all probably moving on to Baidu!
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 01:30 PM   #33
 
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Yes, I know what you mean about the tech-unsavvy, but things can change. Example, sister with old modem and Win 3.1 and instamatic camera. But then she gets a cheap computer with XP and broadband, and all of a sudden she's using a digital camera, etc.

This Panasonic DVR really is plug-and-play, and even DW has recorded some things. You just look at the list of programs and push a button to record one. It will record it no matter what, then list it by name.

So, if 50% of customers convert to downloading or TIVOing, will the video chain still survive?
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 06:23 PM   #34
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

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Originally Posted by TromboneAl
This Panasonic DVR really is plug-and-play, and even DW has recorded some things. You just look at the list of programs and push a button to record one. It will record it no matter what, then list it by name.
If you don't pay a monthly service, how does it get a current list of programs? Does it connect to the Internet to automatically download the program listing periodically?

I've been debating using Linux to build my own PVR but my laziness keeps stopping me.
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-16-2005, 10:54 PM   #35
 
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

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how does it get a current list of programs?
Well that's the interesting thing. Most (all?) cable companies broadcast information about the shows and the DVR picks it up. No phone or other connection necessary.

You plug the DVR in, and it has no show information. It reads in show information when it's off. After 24 hours or so, you see that it has info for a day's worth of programs or so. After a while, it has info for a week ahead.

It also downloads the time, so that's always correct.
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-17-2005, 01:39 AM   #36
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Sheryl: I have a drip with 3m, good boring company.
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-17-2005, 06:34 AM   #37
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

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Sheryl: I have a drip with 3m, good boring company.
I sometimes have a drip at 3 am, but it has nothing to do with the
company.

JG
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-17-2005, 07:31 AM   #38
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

Mine is Caribou French roast, before it was Starbucks espresso...tastes better and I feel perkier too!
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Re: Testicular Fortitude
Old 09-17-2005, 08:07 AM   #39
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Re: Testicular Fortitude

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tastes better and I feel perkier too!
We can tell by the looks of your ears.
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