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Thank goodness now we know exactly when WHEE ends!
Old 03-27-2012, 10:21 AM   #1
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Thank goodness now we know exactly when WHEE ends!

Market Rally Will Peak Next Month: Charles Nenner | Breakout - Yahoo! Finance

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Market Rally Will Peak Next Month: Charles Nenner

After the best first quarter since 1998, Charles Nenner, founder of Charles Nenner Research thinks the rally is coming to an end. With a price target of 1,449 on the S&P500, a mere 2% higher than the opening levels of Tuesday, "it's a little late to buy this thing," he says.
I consider Yahoo!Finance to be the financial/market equivalent of The Daily Show. A comedic view of the news, though Jon Stewart is considerably more clever...
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Old 03-27-2012, 12:51 PM   #2
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My charting (from Fido's Jurrien Timmer) shows a fairly flat Q2 followed by a big run around July/Sept..... but...who knows!

If I knew what I was talking about, I'd be retir......oh, never mind.
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Old 03-27-2012, 05:03 PM   #3
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My charting (from Fido's Jurrien Timmer) shows a fairly flat Q2 followed by a big run around July/Sept..... but...who knows!

If I knew what I was talking about, I'd be retir......oh, never mind.
In which direction is this run to take place? If it's Fidelity, my guess is up, because I cannot ever remember them being anything but bullish.

Ha
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Old 03-27-2012, 06:13 PM   #4
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Man I have never heard someone speak of the market with such conviction.

Where was this guy in '08

If your thinking of following his advise note that there are two guys in white coats in the back ground.
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Old 03-27-2012, 06:35 PM   #5
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I goggled this nenner nenner guy and his track record is very bad...he said last August to get out of all stocks. But buy RIMM @ 22.....it is at 13 today
Now he is taking credit for this run up...How does he get air time?
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Old 03-27-2012, 07:40 PM   #6
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Unfortunately, there is this thing called a random walk that applies.
However, guys like this only need to get lucky occasionally. Then they can say "I told you so". It's like a gambler who brags only about winnings and mentions none of the losses.
The good old secrurities business still has many dinosaurs walking around..
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Old 03-28-2012, 06:59 AM   #7
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In which direction is this run to take place? If it's Fidelity, my guess is up, because I cannot ever remember them being anything but bullish.

Ha
Yes, up. The chart predicts a 1600 S&P by March 2013 with the biggest jump in Jun/Sept '12 timeframe. I've been tracking it for almost a year now and it follows fairly well.(so far)

YMMV however...caveat emptor!
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Market peaking?
Old 03-29-2012, 09:40 AM   #8
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Market peaking?

This is a tough one and we seem to be entering new terrain this year. The housing market and unemployment are still at the bottom so any recovery is actually artificially being produced. Most of the advances on the NASDAQ are purely from Apple and now the insiders at Apple are dumping stock at a very high rate and they plan to pay small but significant dividends. That no actual rule changes have occurred, no one is being prosecuted for fraud and theft, the uplift tick rule is still where it was, naked shorts are still allowed, and derivatives still out of control, and hedges are now at rates in excess of 50% spells certain doom. On top of this are the algorithmic trading which is clogging the markets in ways no one ever anticipated to obtain miniscule profits is dangerous beyond belief. Once the systems begin to act in concert thus averting the entire concept of a free market it is going to go downhill fast when it starts as the algo programs will respond immediately with sell orders. No human is fast enough to stop it once it happens and all the fail-safes are ineffective as the same algo systems are also the market makers. We go liquid every evening now (because likely when it happens it will be overnight when mere mortals cannot trade) and stick with high volume trades during the day so we can get out quick. Things like AAPL, FAS, and FAZ seem to be relatively safe but you have to have your guard up at all times. If you are trading on your 401K accounts then only use 1/2 of the money at any time so you can trade out quick without violating the rules. Nothing is safe at this point so you have to be prepared for when it happens. The market is too volatile to use stops so you need to be physically ready to sell at all times. My opinion is the market looks too good to be true especially given all the problems in the world and the actual continued depression (yes and history will bear me out on this) in Europe and the US. Only politics and actions by the PPP are keeping the market afloat.
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Old 03-29-2012, 09:58 AM   #9
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Just checked my May 6, 2012 copy of the Wall Street Journal. We are all going to be fabulously wealthy!
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Old 03-31-2012, 03:39 PM   #10
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I can't complain. Just looked at the value of my investment portfolio at end of March. The value increased by around 7% since the start of the year
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Reality bites
Old 04-01-2012, 02:26 AM   #11
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Reality bites

If you actively manage your portfolio and if you have the time and patience to day trade with your brokerage and 401K accounts then you should be earning a lot more given this rally (which is completely artificial). For example if you only played with Apple you would have earned 48% since Jan 1st. The NASDAQ itself earned 26% so if you only earned 7% you need to pay a lot closer attention. Passive portfolios are making your broker rich not you. Shockingly my wife who is an excellent Day Trader has earned over 100% each of the past 2 years by adopting some hard but relatively simple rules. She only uses a couple of stocks as it is just too volatile to actively trade more than 3 stocks at a time. Apple has been very good this year but perhaps the run on it is ending as the insiders are selling off large amounts of stock and they are making all these expensive improvements at Foxconn which will either require increase pricing (not likely) or less amount of return to the company (I guess $100B in cash is probably enough now). But FAS and FAZ have been equally wonderful but only for single day trades. We also trade a lot of commodities and keep a list going to see what is potentially active each day. Watching the European and Oriental markets helps some but as evidence the US markets are not free any longer, they often run contrary to what is happening in the rest of the world. The big boys are driving the market with huge cash reserves, algorithmic trades, and complete unabashed theft and corruption. BUt, if you stay reasonable and can accept that there is no such thing as a free market you can use this to your advantage. We set simple goals. Make $1,000 a day then quit for the day. Typically we only use $100K on the brokerage and never more than 1/2 of whatever money is in our 401K's. They are slower to use so we buy things that are more or less stable. We never use the margin. We also never short. It is tempting but most shorters get it in the end. Same for options. The market is too unpredictable now for that. We also go to cash every night completely (also why we only use less than 1/2 of the money on our 401K accounts to bypass the 3 day rule) which is very hard on the nerves as you can see the most wild manipulations occurring with the last 30 minutes (sometimes the last 5 minutes) of the market although we are most active in pre- and post-market periods. There are days when we just sit it out as it is just too wild or it opens already too far in one direction to get into play. Although FAZ is good on bearish days and FAS on bullish days and great for swing trades. You can make 3% in 5 minutes if you time it right. If you aren't making big money the past 2 years then you are doing something wrong. Of course, most of the Day Traders got hammered in 2008 and most have given up so there aren't that many of us around now. Yes, we got hammered as well as we went completely to cash recognizing the crash correctly. But, what we thought was the bottom wasn't and we bought in heavy and lost 30% in the process. So, really going to cash daily and limiting losses to 5% a day (also hard on the nerves). Trailing stops don't work in high volatility and determining the price pattern and support levels is also cagy now. So, you have to sit and watch extremely close what is happening. (I can't do it as I don't have the patience but my wife is great at it). Watching the news, doing careful analysis, and really knowing and I mean an actual Zen-like knowledge of a stock is critical which only comes with playing a long time with the same stocks. As a research scientist much of my research dealt with time series statistical analysis which as it turns out is also a "lost art" (actually kept secret for good reasons), for analyzing things like the weather and stock markets. I can state categorically that the US Market is completely manipulated and impossible to analyze using statistical methods such as ARIMA. Even the algo traders are executing literally billions of trades and win/lose at a ratio of a gain of 0.01% so even they haven't found any statistical method for getting it correct hence why human Zen is better (Intuitive trading).
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Old 04-01-2012, 08:24 AM   #12
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What? Day trading? DW only uses a couple of stocks as it is just too volatile to actively trade more than 3 stocks at a time? Oh my!! Hope she isn't using your retirement money with this.
Too volitile for my blood.

I'd prefer to stay with my boring passive strategy (Index funds, DCA, rebalance to targeted asset allocation) anyday.

Oh, by the way, no broker fees involved with my boring approach .
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Old 04-01-2012, 09:24 AM   #13
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One of many advantages to reading the posts on this site and recommended books on this site (currently rereading Bogleheads Guide to Retirement) is the ability to tune out the noise and even laugh at the goofballs like this guy (Jim Cramer, etc). Just reminds me of how grateful I am to have found this bastion of financial sanity.
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Day Trading
Old 04-01-2012, 10:49 AM   #14
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Day Trading

Nah, this is extra money we both socked away when we built up our 401K accounts. It turns out we don't need it to retire on at all and keep it for emergency reserve so can afford to lose it all. But, she is brilliant and never loses much (since 2008) although we get hammered sometimes based on false news planted by the big boys. Typicaly we ride it out which is in violation of our own rules and things get testy here when that happens. No one is perfect and sometimes you make a mistake. But, if you adopt the strategy of holding long and buying an equal volume at the lower support area you can break even usually in a day or so. We live completely on my military retirement and even then have a surplus of $1K a month living very well here in Hungary. So, she treats the money as a job and goes to work every day at 1430 local (0830 NY) and works until 2300 or so depending on what happened. She enjoys it and it keeps her busy. If she averages $1K a day I am happy but for me it is play money as I have never had access or really any need for it for any reason. but, it is nice to see her doubling yearly. It is in fact hard work and doesn't forgive interruptions like bathroom breaks. So, this is only for serious people. But, the returns are amazing and far easier than actually working.
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Old 04-01-2012, 12:07 PM   #15
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I dunno about day trading, but I've heard that if you gamble at a casino, the odds are best to just make a bet (for example, at a roulette wheel), then win or lose, walk away until another day. The more you stick around and play, the more the odds tilt towards the house.

Of course, what's the fun of just putting down one bet and leaving if you are looking to have fun and have money to burn. That's probably the biggest challenge when gambling, speculating. The thought that the next big payout is right around the corner, so you keep on playing and playing.

That said, as I mentioned early, too volitile for my blood.
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Old 04-01-2012, 05:22 PM   #16
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I dunno about day trading, but I've heard that if you gamble at a casino, the odds are best to just make a bet (for example, at a roulette wheel), then win or lose, walk away until another day. The more you stick around and play, the more the odds tilt towards the house.
The odds are the same, (and in the case of roulette or other casino games of chance, negative, no matter how many times you spin the wheel. What you may be referring to is the difference between crossing a busy street blindfolded once, and trying it over and over. If you play a negative expectation game, take one shot. Because every time you repeat it you are more likely to be inexorably ground down. The best is to not play these games, 2nd (least worst)is to bet your chosen risk money once on the day you arrive. Everytime you put down your money you decrease the chance that blind luck will make you a winner.

Ha
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Old 04-01-2012, 07:36 PM   #17
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The odds are the same, (and in the case of roulette or other casino games of chance, negative, no matter how many times you spin the wheel. What you may be referring to is the difference between crossing a busy street blindfolded once, and trying it over and over. If you play a negative expectation game, take one shot. Because every time you repeat it you are more likely to be inexorably ground down. The best is to not play these games, 2nd (least worst)is to bet your chosen risk money once on the day you arrive. Everytime you put down your money you decrease the chance that blind luck will make you a winner.

Ha
I guess another analogy, is russian roulette. Each spin with one bullet is only 1/6 chance of lights out. But do it several times and it's a death wish for sure.
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Old 04-02-2012, 02:13 PM   #18
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I've got a craps system that can't be beat.

I put minimum bets on both the "pass" and "don't pass" lines. Then I tip the waitress well and drink the free drinks as fast as I can.

On every normal roll, I win one bet and lose one bet. Every 36 rolls of the dice (on average), a twelve comes up and I lose one minimum bet.

If the waitress is good, I can drink that much in "free" drinks.


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Originally Posted by haha View Post
The odds are the same, (and in the case of roulette or other casino games of chance, negative, no matter how many times you spin the wheel. What you may be referring to is the difference between crossing a busy street blindfolded once, and trying it over and over. If you play a negative expectation game, take one shot. Because every time you repeat it you are more likely to be inexorably ground down. The best is to not play these games, 2nd (least worst)is to bet your chosen risk money once on the day you arrive. Everytime you put down your money you decrease the chance that blind luck will make you a winner.

Ha
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Old 04-02-2012, 05:46 PM   #19
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I've got a craps system that can't be beat.

I put minimum bets on both the "pass" and "don't pass" lines. Then I tip the waitress well and drink the free drinks as fast as I can.

On every normal roll, I win one bet and lose one bet. Every 36 rolls of the dice (on average), a twelve comes up and I lose one minimum bet.

If the waitress is good, I can drink that much in "free" drinks.
Don't forget to tip her, this will improve you drinks per hour rate!
TJ
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Old 05-11-2012, 11:36 AM   #20
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Did any of you catch Jim Cramer's Mad Money show yesterday. He lost me with his discussion of the technical analysis of the S&P 500. Can anyone explain to me what he was trying to say?
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