Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Thankful for History...
Old 12-10-2018, 09:30 AM   #1
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 28
Thankful for History...

Given all the talk that this might be a tough time for many to enter retirement....itís important to remember weíre currently in the longest expansion since World War 2...and just short of the longest since 1860!
If indeed this is the end, and a recession is around the corner.....I would rather enter retirement in this order than the other way around!
__________________

macav933 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-10-2018, 10:11 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 21,752
Yes, people seem to ignore that when we have a big drop, it usually happens after a big run up!

It's not like your typical retiree put every dollar in at the peak, they accumulated over decades, and benefited from the run up.

-ERD50
__________________

ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2018, 10:16 AM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 4,567
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Yes, people seem to ignore that when we have a big drop, it usually happens after a big run up!

It's not like your typical retiree put every dollar in at the peak, they accumulated over decades, and benefited from the run up.

-ERD50
Big +1
It is stated one could have issues if there is a bear market 5 years before or within 5 years after retirement.
A 10 year cycle of a bull run is not typical irrespective of the current one, so one generally can't avoid a bear market in these 10 years mentioned above.
I could not have retired last year without the run up in the many years before it.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is online now   Reply With Quote
Thankful for History...
Old 12-10-2018, 12:47 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
happy2bretired's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,541
Thankful for History...

Yes itís an exciting time with all the new technologies and advancements in science, itís mind boggling. Just think of how things have changed over time especially in the boomer generation. Iím excited to see what comes next.
happy2bretired is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2018, 12:49 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RunningBum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 8,570
I don't follow.

Suppose 10 years ago someone saw retirement a long way away. But with a lot of help of a 10 year bull market, they hit their goal in 10 years, and pull the trigger. Maybe they believe the 4% SWR story and as soon as they hit that, they retire.

Now retired, a bear market starts, setting them up for starting with a bad sequence of returns, and possible failure.

Isn't this a bad thing? How is it good?
RunningBum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2018, 02:12 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 3,064
I am in agreement with the OP. I am retiring in 2 years, have planned a long time for it. I am in capital preservation mode. I don't need much growth from here to make my plan work. I don't need a 4% withdrawal rate either. I would rather know I have it, than hope for growth from here in order to make it all work.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2018, 02:39 PM   #7
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 42,677
When I retired, on 11/9/2009, quite honestly I wasn't sure if the recession was actually over or if it was just the pre-amble to something far, far worse.

However, I felt confident enough to retire anyway because my planning assumed the worst conditions anyone could ever imagine; this included a housing crash, market crash, double digit inflation, and anything else I could think of to throw in that cauldron of future misery. And look what happened! Ten years of a booming market and I'm hanging out on the "Blow that Dough" thread and the Amazon thread. I have been so amazed and surprised by this turn of events. I would never have guessed it in a million years.

I don't think that any retiree ever "gets it right" and ends up with exactly the income they expect, unless they are just plain lucky. But like in the working world, we adapt. Some of those who end up in more difficult financial situations than expected, might have to take a part time "fun job", downsize, learn to spend less, move to a state or country with an LCOL, or figure out some other way to cope.

But I believe in the retirees on this forum. Most of us have dealt with very tough situations at various times during life, and can and will do so again if necessary. Most of us also know that:

__________________
I have drunken deep of joy,
And I will taste no other wine tonight.

― Percy Bysshe Shelley
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2018, 03:14 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Red Badger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Piedmont Region
Posts: 1,810
The run up after the Great Recession shaved ~3 years off of my working years. We've only been retired about 18 months, so we're fairly cautious. If the economy flies south for a few winters, we can go to 2% WR. Worst case, we could leave investments untouched. Prefer not to, but it's one of a few options. With zero WR, our travel and discretionary big ticket budget would take a broadside.
__________________
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.
W. Rogers
Red Badger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2018, 03:30 PM   #9
Full time employment: Posting here.
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 983
Quote:
Originally Posted by RunningBum View Post
I don't follow.

Suppose 10 years ago someone saw retirement a long way away. But with a lot of help of a 10 year bull market, they hit their goal in 10 years, and pull the trigger. Maybe they believe the 4% SWR story and as soon as they hit that, they retire.

Now retired, a bear market starts, setting them up for starting with a bad sequence of returns, and possible failure.

Isn't this a bad thing? How is it good?
Well, you've just described much of the ER-org Class of 2017 and Class of 2018, me included

But, on the other hand your premise seems flawed. The SWR studies show that generic "bear markets" did NOT cause failure of the 4% guideline, regardless of SORR. It took a Great Depression or Great Inflation for that to have happened [with appropriate caveats about past not future, studies were for 30-year retirements, no one actually withdraws like that, etc., etc.].

So while a huge run-up followed by a bear market is not ideal, it is better than a generic market followed by a bear market. Why? Because you get to ER earlier thanks to the run-up!
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
USGrant1962 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2018, 04:04 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RunningBum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 8,570
Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post

So while a huge run-up followed by a bear market is not ideal, it is better than a generic market followed by a bear market. Why? Because you get to ER earlier thanks to the run-up!
OK, that part wasn't clear to me, but if that's what's meant, I'll buy it.
RunningBum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2018, 05:19 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 4,567
Quote:
Originally Posted by RunningBum View Post
OK, that part wasn't clear to me, but if that's what's meant, I'll buy it.
Not sure the original quote was for me, but US Grant's explanation WAS my thinking, plus only using 3% WR to help protect against the effects of SORR.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-10-2018, 05:37 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RunningBum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 8,570
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
Not sure the original quote was for me, but US Grant's explanation WAS my thinking, plus only using 3% WR to help protect against the effects of SORR.
I intentionally didn't quote anyone in particular, because everyone was agreeing with the OP, which to me sounded like "I'd rather retire and then have a downturn than retire and then have an upturn." USG's explanation puts it in a different light.
__________________

RunningBum is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Thankful to find this forum Miranda Hi, I am... 19 05-08-2017 08:43 PM
Reason 692 Why I Am Thankful to be FIREd tangomonster Other topics 60 10-17-2011 11:48 AM
Much to be thankful for. Cattusbabe Other topics 27 04-02-2009 11:21 AM
Anyone thankful this year they gave the gov an "interest free loan" in 2008? schmidtjas FIRE and Money 13 04-02-2009 08:21 AM
What are you thankful for? John Galt Other topics 12 11-26-2004 08:22 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:46 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
×