The 4% article that started it all?

[ormondroyd]

Sorry, didn't mean to confuse anyone with the facts. Still the withdrawal percentage Vanguard projects is way off the mark- historically or by Monte Carlo simulation if one likes , as far as their balanced fund goes. It was a sad day when I lost faith in Saint Jack. *Time to go sailing!

[intercst]

HYPERBOREA, et al * * * * * * * * * * * *Yeah, *I know- there's Paul Samuelson and me on one side of this question. What I want to know is what all the folks with equities are going to do when they run dry in twenty years or so... * Unlikely right? www.fpanet.org *and *take *a look at * May 2003 issue, *R.L. *Terry. *It is painful to hear the conventional wisdom trumpeted so loudly. *A 2% I bond would sustain a withdrawal of 4.4% for thirty years and those 3% ones 5.0%. I don't know of a law that mandates I spend it all within the thirty years. I don't know of many who consider inflation indexed securities fixed income in the traditional sense. * * * * * * * * *

I looked at the Jahnke article in the May 2003 issue of the Journal of Financial Planning. I don't see much difference in it from the articles I read in 1980 telling me to dump equities and buy gold because Japan was going to own the world.

I agree with uncleremick. A balanced portfolio with equities and fixed income is likely to outperform the contrarians over the long term.

intercst

I don't care (if equities outperform). The key word here
is "likely". Likely doesn't buy the groceries. If it
was "likely" with a 95% certainty, I still would own no
stocks. Don't need 'em! Don't want 'em!

John Galt

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Hey fred.

You werent confusing me with any facts. Probably because what I read wasnt fact, but opinion. And you're certainly entitled to yours.

But unless you have a time machine or can fortell the future, guessing at what might happen after today isnt particularly factual.

I *am* very intrigued by your facts on ibonds though. I sincerely want to buy some of these 2 and 3% ibonds. Where do I get them? The fed is currently selling 1% ibonds, and they arent available to buy on the secondary market.

Do tell!

Also, who is saint jack? Do you mean saint john?

Not to mention, are you really counting on the feds inflation calculation?

They've been telling us for several years now that inflation was under 3%.

Hmm...a good steak used to be $3.99 a lb here. Now its $7.99. Gas was $1.60, now its $2.10. Milk was $1.50 a gallon, now its $1.95. Eggs were $1.25 a gallon, now they're $1.75. A lot of change for just a couple of years.

The MSRP on the truck I bought four years ago was $28k and change. The new model is $38k and change. My old house was worth $300k eight years ago, and $400k four years ago. I sold it last year for a half million.

So I dont know what the fed is smokin', but counting on their indexes for inflation protection doesnt look like a bright idea to me...

[unclemick]

Pontification - I predict all the passionate poster's will have a successful ER. Only if we all end up in the same rest home in thirty years will we be able to look back and see who did - more better.

For now I'll stick with the horse I rode in on. And I'll keep an eye on Vanguard Target Retirement Income(for my old age) - 25% inflation protected securities: clearly an overweight position. Due diligence and mastering what you are comfortable with is the key - IMHO - hence I avoid real estate and individual fixed income securities - areas where others have done well.

Hell, all I have is real estate and fixed income securities, but like you said...........

My wife works in a nursing home. She is afraid that when she is finished there they will just take her to her
room

John Galt