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Old 01-16-2009, 11:33 AM   #61
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Here are two things that, were I a timer, would make me bet on a strong recovery:

1. The government is throwing everything it has at the problem. I have little faith in the government, but with this shotgun approach, perhaps something will hit the target. And with this panic mode attack, there's a reasonable chance that the government will overdue it, resulting in lots of recovery. I realize that I don't have much basis for this idea.

2. In a few days an intelligent person is going to take over the leadership of this country. A recent NBC poll showed that even those who do not support his policies have a positive view of Obama (66%). Most Americans support Obama's plan. If people believe that his plan will fix things, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy, since the economy depends so much on consumer sentiment.

Anyway, that's the basis of my gut feeling that things will recover rather quickly.

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Old 01-16-2009, 12:14 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
since the economy depends so much on consumer sentiment.
Exactly so. And that is what David Brooks in his Op-Ed piece in this morning's New York Times spoke to.

But an economy is a society of trust and faith. A recession is a mental event, and every recession has its own unique spirit. This recession was caused by deep imbalances and is propelled by a cascade of fundamental insecurities. You can pump hundreds of billions into the banks, but insecure bankers still won’t lend. You can run up gigantic deficits, hire road builders and reduce the unemployment rate from 8 percent to 7 percent, but insecure people will still not spend and invest.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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Old 01-16-2009, 12:47 PM   #63
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Hobo? DITTO My Friend, Ditto...
Don't have more than a 50/50 port and Retired? not more than 40/60
If in doubt? DCA it over the next 12 -18 mos..

Don't like the kinds of APY's that will give you based upon past 10 yrs?
Tough.. Then you have to save more , now don't you and Live on less or go work more to save more..
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Old 01-16-2009, 01:53 PM   #64
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All we have to fear.... is not getting a Trillion.... (or 2) from Congress.
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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Old 01-17-2009, 07:14 PM   #65
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If things turned around today, it would take me about 5 years to recover to my previous position (assuming a reasonable rate of return).

From my eyeball view, I am guessing that it will take another 1 to 2 years for the economy to pull out of this nose dive. From what I can see, things have not stopped getting worse yet.

So, I expect to be restored in approximately 6 to 7 years if nothing changes in my situation.

However, I am more interested in dividends than capital gains. Dividends are said to be steadier than market fluctuations. I sure hope so. In that case, I am still OK. For now.
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I am retired.
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Old 01-18-2009, 04:36 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy View Post
However, I am more interested in dividends than capital gains. Dividends are said to be steadier than market fluctuations. I sure hope so. In that case, I am still OK. For now.
Not if you own Bank of America....
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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Old 01-18-2009, 07:58 AM   #67
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I really do not like Obama's stimulus plan.
>Infrastructure projects are long time coming, a one time shot, and do not grow businesses.
>Once time $1000 tax refund to the poor - does nothing to improve the economy. >Investing in alternative clean energy is very risky - new technology, new business sector, no proven track record.
>Repairing hospitals is might bring back the construction sector, but this is the first time I've heard we have a problem with hospital deterioration.

I would like to see money loaned to established entrepreneurs with a good balance sheet and a growing business. Money is the life's blood of newly established business - and they can't borrow money from banks. Thus they can not grow. This is where we need to put the money; to grow our economy.
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Old 01-18-2009, 10:13 AM   #68
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Hospitals are "for profit" enterprises for the most part. I guess he means those fully subsidized "General Hospitals". The problem with some of the "infrastructure" "investment" (also a code word for "taxes") as I see it is that much of it gets destroyed/deteriorated by the users - put money into it and it will soon be back to the previous level of needing more money. You did not include schools, but they are in the plan too. We just had a levy approved here which results in a 25% increase in our RE taxes for schools - of course 89% of the increase does not go for physical plant but Teachers Salaries. So I guess we need more Plasma TV's in the lobbies.
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Old 01-18-2009, 12:11 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Hobo View Post
....Double dip recession, record inflation,...
Boy, I'm getting hungry. I could sure use one of those Double Dips, topped with cherrys. Bacon on the side.


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