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Old 04-24-2012, 09:53 AM   #21
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Bingo. How this manifests itself today is like Europe. In Europe and now here, the newer generation is just not being hired at all. Spain i belive has something like 50% youth unemployment The reasons for this is that companys are unwilling to hire anyone in the developed economies who is not already skilled. I see this at my mega corp all time time, we talk about using leverage in our skills, meaning offshoring the entry level work to free up senior folks to do the senior level stuff. This off course will cut off the number of skilled folks down the line.
I see a lot of this too. I guess it's pretty obvious that a combination of demographic and economic trends are coming together to ensure that today's younger generation gets a raw deal (on average) compared to their parents and grandparents. The question to me becomes: is there anything we can reasonably do about it? Youth today have much higher poverty rates than the elderly, but our economic and social policies continue to transfer wealth from young to old (in many cases, regardless of means or income). How much longer will the younger generations put up with the status quo?
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Old 04-24-2012, 09:57 AM   #22
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As to the wages of a McDonald's worker....

When I worked in London, someone pointed out to me that the parking meter outside the McDonalds made more than the guy behind the counter...
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:18 AM   #23
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I see a lot of this too. I guess it's pretty obvious that a combination of demographic and economic trends are coming together to ensure that today's younger generation gets a raw deal (on average) compared to their parents and grandparents. The question to me becomes: is there anything we can reasonably do about it? Youth today have much higher poverty rates than the elderly, but our economic and social policies continue to transfer wealth from young to old (in many cases, regardless of means or income). How much longer will the younger generations put up with the status quo?
Well, im not sure much can be done, at least in the near term. Without trying to get to political, its clear the size and invasive nature of our federal government has driven costs so high, that its not profitable to risk training local people. The same is true in Europe, but even more so. Thats a shot at both parties by the way....

When i discuss this with my euro zone collegues, very smart and educated folks, they almost to a person want more protectionsm in trade and more government mandates that try to force employers to create jobs there. This will not work of course, but that is the mind set that the developed countries are up against. We are no different, just further behind them.

Until costs equalize more, meaning our standard of living will go down, while emerging countries will come up, I dont see any way to stop this trend. As I said in an earlier post, I have instilled into my kids that they must view opportunity in a global sense and not feel they are married to this country. Just the way it is im afraid.

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Old 04-24-2012, 10:21 AM   #24
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Bingo. How this manifests itself today is like Europe. In Europe and now here, the newer generation is just not being hired at all. Spain i belive has something like 50% youth unemployment The reasons for this is that companys are unwilling to hire anyone in the developed economies who is not already skilled.
I will disagree. What is happening in some European countries (let's not generalize as some countries do not have a youth unemployment problem) is not that young people can't find jobs, it's that most can't find jobs with meaningful security and benefits anymore. More and more young people are hired as contract workers which means that, when the economy tanks, they are the first to go. Jobs are becoming more precarious for everyone, but more so for the younger generations. The root problem, IMO, is not a lack of skills. It's the inflexible job market incentivizing employers in some countries to avoid hiring full-time workers because they are exceedingly hard to lay off.
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:21 AM   #25
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Until costs equalize more, meaning our standard of living will go down, while emerging countries will come up, I dont see any way to stop this trend. As I said in an earlier post, I have instilled into my kids that they must view opportunity in a global sense and not feel they are married to this country. Just the way it is im afraid.
Yeah, perhaps. And learning 2-3 other languages might be a good "hedge" against becoming marginalized by globalization.
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:23 AM   #26
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I see a lot of this too. I guess it's pretty obvious that a combination of demographic and economic trends are coming together to ensure that today's younger generation gets a raw deal (on average) compared to their parents and grandparents. The question to me becomes: is there anything we can reasonably do about it? Youth today have much higher poverty rates than the elderly, but our economic and social policies continue to transfer wealth from young to old (in many cases, regardless of means or income). How much longer will the younger generations put up with the status quo?
That's the whole "Clash of Generations" in a nutshell. Is the present system really sustainable ? Is it fair ? Will it survive once the younguns' figure out what's What ?
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:25 AM   #27
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Well, my take is this is considerably more negagitve. In all of recorded history, there are zero examples of Democratic forms of governement surviving 300 years or more. The reason is very simple, when the citizens figure out they can vote themselves resources from the governement, they do and the country ultimatly collapses due to overspending.

We are not going to immently collapse, but our decline has begun, Europe is ahead of us so we can see a preview by watching them. I dont think this will have a significant impact on myself, but I have started my children down the road of viewing themselves as citizens of the world and to feel free to move to where the opportunities are best. Sorry to sound so dire, but im not a big beliver in "This time its different"

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So your portfolio allocation to MREs and shotgun shells is somewhat higher than the average investor, I take it?
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:26 AM   #28
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I will disagree. What is happening in some European countries (let's not generalize as some countries do not have a youth unemployment problem) is not that young people can't find jobs, it's that most can't find jobs with meaningful security and benefits anymore. More and more young people are hired as contract workers which means that, when the economy tanks, they are the first to go. Jobs are becoming more precarious for everyone, but more so for the younger generations. The root problem, IMO, is not a lack of skills. It's the inflexible job market incentivizing employers in some countries to avoid hiring full-time workers because they are exceedingly hard to lay off.

I 100% agree with the inflexable job market, that is factored in as costs Most of the important EU economies, with the exception of germany actaully have very high youth unemployment, spain is the worst, but UK is close and France running as fast as possible to join them. All them have much higher youth unemplyment than the US does and has had that issue for as long as i can remember.

I have a lot of european colleagues in mega corp, not one of them is under 40.

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Old 04-24-2012, 10:29 AM   #29
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So your portfolio allocation to MREs and shotgun shells is somewhat higher than the average investor, I take it?
Hehe, actually not. Not a real tinfoil hat type, do like to shoot though I feel that this situation can be exploited in the near term to pad my nest so its really just an observation. I am really talking about many decades out, so not my problem for the most part

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Old 04-24-2012, 10:31 AM   #30
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I am really talking about many decades out, so not my problem for the most part
It may be true for individuals, but when this mindset takes root in legislative bodies it leads to the "kick the can" mentality that is making smaller and potentially fixable problems a lot worse and a lot more disastrous.
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:37 AM   #31
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Hehe, actually not. Not a real tinfoil hat type, do like to shoot though I feel that this situation can be exploited in the near term to pad my nest so its really just an observation. I am really talking about many decades out, so not my problem for the most part

Steel
I am always amazed at the confidence some people have that they know with pretty firm certainty what will happen in the next couple of generations. My (tinfoil) hat is off to you.
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:40 AM   #32
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That's the whole "Clash of Generations" in a nutshell. Is the present system really sustainable ? Is it fair ? Will it survive once the younguns' figure out what's What ?
Well, its clear the current system is not sustainable, its not even mathmatically close. I have shown both my kids this thread and their comment is that since there is zero chance they will get any of the goodies, they will vote it out as soon as they can. Small sample I know, but its pretty clear that 1.9 workers to 1.0 retired folks is not going to work.

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Old 04-24-2012, 10:42 AM   #33
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It may be true for individuals, but when this mindset takes root in legislative bodies it leads to the "kick the can" mentality that is making smaller and potentially fixable problems a lot worse and a lot more disastrous.
Fully agree, its not that I dont care, its that i dont think i can change anything. I vote, talk with my kids and participate on forums such as these. The solutions are pretty obvious and have been reccomended by various blue ribbon panels since the Clinton administration, but nothing has happened because the electorate will not buy it. Plain and simple, the mathmatical truth is not even a consideration.

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Old 04-24-2012, 10:44 AM   #34
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I am always amazed at the confidence some people have that they know with pretty firm certainty what will happen in the next couple of generations.
Frankly I think some of this is pretty nearly unavoidable if we don't have the will to fix it. If we keep kicking the can and avoiding reforms because the "real" pain is decades away, we're pretty much not only ensuring that the pain will come, but that the eventual "fix" will be a lot more draconian than it would be if we tackled it early on.
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:44 AM   #35
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I am always amazed at the confidence some people have that they know with pretty firm certainty what will happen in the next couple of generations. My (tinfoil) hat is off to you.
Well, if history is a guide, i feel im on safe ground here History may not repeat, but it will rhyme

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Old 04-24-2012, 10:47 AM   #36
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Frankly I think some of this is pretty nearly unavoidable if we don't have the will to fix it. If we keep kicking the can and avoiding reforms because the "real" pain is decades away, we're pretty much not only ensuring that the pain will come, but that the eventual "fix" will be a lot more draconian than it would be if we tackled it early on.
100% agree. There are many reasonable solutions for both Medicare and SS, but the politics of this is so toxic, that we are paralyzed. The dollar will eventually lose its reserver status, when that happens, the bond markets will force a solution via interest rates. Not tomorrow to be sure, but in our lifetimes for sure.

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Old 04-24-2012, 10:47 AM   #37
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Frankly I think some of this is pretty nearly unavoidable if we don't have the will to fix it. If we keep kicking the can and avoiding reforms because the "real" pain is decades away, we're pretty much not only ensuring that the pain will come, but that the eventual "fix" will be a lot more draconian than it would be if we tackled it early on.
I agree it should be fixed, but I try to be a bit more humble: I have no idea what American society will look like in 50 years.
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:00 AM   #38
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I have a lot of european colleagues in mega corp, not one of them is under 40.

Steel
Not so surprising. Older workers tend to be full-time employees and they are hard to lay off. Younger workers tend to be temporary or contract employees which makes it hard for them to move up a corporate ladder clogged with older workers. In essence, younger workers are paying for older workers' job security.

However, there is a meaningful number of young European people who manage to do very well for themselves despite the headwinds. In fact, among my college friends and family members under the age of 40, people tend to be financially more successful than their parents.
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:03 AM   #39
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Well, if history is a guide, i feel im on safe ground here History may not repeat, but it will rhyme

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So you think people in 1962 had a real good idea of what like in 'Merica would look like today? Somehow, I rather doubt it.
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:04 AM   #40
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Not so surprising. Older workers tend to be full-time employees and they are hard to lay off. Younger workers tend to be temporary or contract employees which makes it hard for them to move up a corporate ladder clogged with older workers. In essence, younger workers are paying for older workers' job security.

However, there is a meaningful number of young European people who manage to do very well for themselves despite the headwinds. In fact, among my college friends and family members under the age of 40, people tend to be financially more successful than their parents.
Yep, in every population, there are those that will rise. The general headwinds are against the younger generation though because they are in a much weaker skill position as a genearl rule.

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