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Old 04-24-2012, 11:07 AM   #41
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So you think people in 1962 had a real good idea of what like in 'Merica would look like today? Somehow, I rather doubt it.
Well, in a mathmatical sense, yes they did. The baby boom and the consequeses for entitlements is not exactly a new discussion. We are not talking flying cars here, we are talking about something that is absolutly predictable and measureable. The only real question is what the end state will look like, the sooner something is done, the better, but our track record on this is very poor.

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Old 04-24-2012, 11:15 AM   #42
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Well, in a mathmatical sense, yes they did. The baby boom and the consequeses for entitlements is not exactly a new discussion. We are not talking flying cars here, we are talking about something that is absolutly predictable and measureable. The only real question is what the end state will look like, the sooner something is done, the better, but our track record on this is very poor.

Steel
So in 1962 you would have foreseen the internet, the fall of the Soviet Union, every third person having a piercing or a tattoo, 3D HDTVs, huge increases in wealth disparity, the evaporation of widespreads pension coverage, and a muslim, a lawyer and a communist all occupying the presidency? I am impressed, truly.
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:19 AM   #43
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Yep, in every population, there are those that will rise. The general headwinds are against the younger generation though because they are in a much weaker skill position as a genearl rule.
I don't think it's as much a weaker *skill* position as it is the notion that "globalization" and ease with which jobs can be exported in today's economy has eliminated almost all of their leverage. Even the ones with the right skills aren't likely to get the same deal their parents got just because the current market is strongly tilted in favor of employers.
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:20 AM   #44
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and a muslim, a lawyer and a communist all occupying the presidency?
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Danger, Will Robinson.

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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 04-24-2012, 11:23 AM   #45
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I wish I'd known in 1962 that one day there would be a Microsoft and an Apple I should invest in.
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:24 AM   #46
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I wish I'd known in 1962 that one day there would be a Microsoft and an Apple I could invest in.
It would be pretty impressive if I knew something in 1962, since I wasn't even born until 1965...
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:25 AM   #47
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Must have been nice to have been around when it started...

During the Social Security program's start-up ...The first person to receive monthly benefits was Ida May Fuller from Vermont, who retired in November 1939 and started collecting benefits in January 1940 at age 65. In the three years that Fuller worked under the program, she contributed a total of $24.75. Her first benefit check was for $22.54 and she went on collecting benefits for 35 years, until 1975, when she died at age 100. In this time she collected a total of $22,888.92.

HowStuffWorks "The First Social Security Number"
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:30 AM   #48
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So in 1962 you would have foreseen the internet, the fall of the Soviet Union, every third person having a piercing or a tattoo, 3D HDTVs, huge increases in wealth disparity, the evaporation of widespreads pension coverage, and a muslim, a lawyer and a communist all occupying the presidency? I am impressed, truly.
Well, who is in the whitehouse really has not had much of an impact. I do believe there was a serious attempt at SS refrom under Regan, but I was not of voting age qute yet, so im not sure. All the things you mentioned are the normal march of technology, none of which can address the underlying weakness of the programs. I suppose something could happen, but none of what you have mentioned has imapacted this problem in real terms. Demographics and human nature are the determing factors, the only question is when it hits a wall, and what is the fallout. Im not trying to predict what socitiy will be like, just what the econonics will be like.

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Old 04-24-2012, 11:31 AM   #49
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I don't think it's as much a weaker *skill* position as it is the notion that "globalization" and ease with which jobs can be exported in today's economy has eliminated almost all of their leverage. Even the ones with the right skills aren't likely to get the same deal their parents got just because the current market is strongly tilted in favor of employers.
I agree. Young people have never been so skilled! My parents got their first job right out of high school - as did most of their peers. What professional skills did they have? There must be other factors.
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:32 AM   #50
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I wish I'd known in 1962 that one day there would be a Microsoft and an Apple I should invest in.
you cant be the Bestwifeever, im married to her

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Old 04-24-2012, 11:33 AM   #51
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(mod hat on)

Danger, Will Robinson.

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That was a joke, not a political statement.
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:35 AM   #52
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Well, who is in the whitehouse really has not had much of an impact. I do believe there was a serious attempt at SS refrom under Regan, but I was not of voting age qute yet, so im not sure. All the things you mentioned are the normal march of technology, none of which can address the underlying weakness of the programs. I suppose something could happen, but none of what you have mentioned has imapacted this problem in real terms. Demographics and human nature are the determing factors, the only question is when it hits a wall, and what is the fallout. Im not trying to predict what socitiy will be like, just what the econonics will be like.

Steel
You wouldn't happen to publish an investment newsletter, would you?
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:37 AM   #53
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I agree. Young people have never been so skilled! My parents got their first job right out of high school - as did most of their peers. What professional skills did they have? There must be other factors.
Yep, its more a matter of the intrisic value of someone starting out. its safer for mega corp to pay 7k per year for an entry level engineer vs 40k. I do not really see a way around this. If i was starting out now, i might look very hard at the trades, they get a bad rap, but with transporation costs getting so high, it may come to pass that manufacturing starts to return. But all in all, its a tough deal, but each generation has had it challenges, WW2, segregation, vietnam, 70s stagflation, etc. Im hoping that my kids find a successful path........

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Old 04-24-2012, 11:39 AM   #54
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You wouldn't happen to publish an investment newsletter, would you?
Hardley, my first posts on this board were total newbie investing questions. Im an amateur historian and economist Anything i say about investing is almost certainly wrong, hehe.

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Old 04-24-2012, 11:42 AM   #55
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I agree. Young people have never been so skilled! My parents got their first job right out of high school - as did most of their peers. What professional skills did they have? There must be other factors.
I don't know many in my parents' generation who felt like they had to start preparing their children for college and career when the kids were 6.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:43 PM   #56
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I think your premise is flawed. Until recently, new graduates in skilled fields (engineering, the hard sciences, most MBA's, doctors, lawyers, etc) have had very low unemployment rates.

I think that high unemployment among the high-skilled young is almost entirely recession caused. The biggest issue for them is that there is an experienced pool of unemployed labor that businesses prefer to hire first, not that the highly skilled jobs are going over seas.

Long term, I'm not worried about the people that are capable of doing highly skilled work. Long term unemployment among people with engineering degrees is not likely to ever get high. I'm worried about the people that used to be able to have a middle class lifestyle working in relatively low-skill work.

If 20% of people get high-skill, good paying jobs, and everyone else works at McJobs at < $10/hr, will our society be able to function? I doubt it.

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The costs, to hire and train someone in our field here in the US or in Europe is so high, that the value is not there, so it does not happen. The folks here that do have the skills and experiecne are paid a premium but there is no cohort behind them. In the not too distant future, the more highly paid jobs will go overseas as well, not because of economy, but because there is noone left here with the skills.
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Old 04-24-2012, 01:23 PM   #57
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Bingo. How this manifests itself today is like Europe. In Europe and now here, the newer generation is just not being hired at all. Spain i belive has something like 50% youth unemployment The reasons for this is that companys are unwilling to hire anyone in the developed economies who is not already skilled. I see this at my mega corp all time time, we talk about using leverage in our skills, meaning offshoring the entry level work to free up senior folks to do the senior level stuff. This off course will cut off the number of skilled folks down the line.

The costs, to hire and train someone in our field here in the US or in Europe is so high, that the value is not there, so it does not happen. The folks here that do have the skills and experiecne are paid a premium but there is no cohort behind them. In the not too distant future, the more highly paid jobs will go overseas as well, not because of economy, but because there is noone left here with the skills.

You hear about this in the news all them time, employers saying they cant hire skilled people, and its true. I am a hiring manager and I find it more and more difficult to get skilled folks. I am not allowed to hire entry level folks here, those all go to india. So, in one sense, i hit the lottery by having the skills but in another, i fear where this will lead....

Steel
Perhaps that's the heart of the problem. The common mantra is that everyone should go to college. The reality is not everyone should. Likewise, schools at all levels should be teaching practical skills along with theory. There is a dramatic disconnect between "The Academy" and Corporate America.
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Old 04-24-2012, 02:03 PM   #58
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We continue to have issues hiring people into the trade apprentice program here. I guess there are plenty of people getting hired, but not a good success rate getting thru training.

Maybe I will ask what the issue is. I got the feeling it was the academics involved in the traininig.
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Old 04-24-2012, 02:09 PM   #59
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That was a joke, not a political statement.

I liked your joke.
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Old 04-24-2012, 02:20 PM   #60
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This article makes me a little hopeful--

Oil and Gas Boom Lifts U.S. Economy - WSJ.com
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