The Clash of Generations

[brewer12345]

(mod hat on)

Danger, Will Robinson.

(mod hat off)

That was a joke, not a political statement.

 

[brewer12345]

Well, who is in the whitehouse really has not had much of an impact. I do believe there was a serious attempt at SS refrom under Regan, but I was not of voting age qute yet, so im not sure. All the things you mentioned are the normal march of technology, none of which can address the underlying weakness of the programs. I suppose something could happen, but none of what you have mentioned has imapacted this problem in real terms. Demographics and human nature are the determing factors, the only question is when it hits a wall, and what is the fallout. Im not trying to predict what socitiy will be like, just what the econonics will be like.

Steel

You wouldn't happen to publish an investment newsletter, would you?

 

[Steel Rain]

I agree. Young people have never been so skilled! My parents got their first job right out of high school - as did most of their peers. What professional skills did they have? There must be other factors.

Yep, its more a matter of the intrisic value of someone starting out. its safer for mega corp to pay 7k per year for an entry level engineer vs 40k. I do not really see a way around this. If i was starting out now, i might look very hard at the trades, they get a bad rap, but with transporation costs getting so high, it may come to pass that manufacturing starts to return. But all in all, its a tough deal, but each generation has had it challenges, WW2, segregation, vietnam, 70s stagflation, etc. Im hoping that my kids find a successful path........

Steel

 

[Steel Rain]

You wouldn't happen to publish an investment newsletter, would you?

Hardley, my first posts on this board were total newbie investing questions. Im an amateur historian and economist Anything i say about investing is almost certainly wrong, hehe.

Steel

 

[ziggy29]

I agree. Young people have never been so skilled! My parents got their first job right out of high school - as did most of their peers. What professional skills did they have? There must be other factors.

I don't know many in my parents' generation who felt like they had to start preparing their children for college and career when the kids were 6.

 

[Hamlet]

I think your premise is flawed. Until recently, new graduates in skilled fields (engineering, the hard sciences, most MBA's, doctors, lawyers, etc) have had very low unemployment rates.

I think that high unemployment among the high-skilled young is almost entirely recession caused. The biggest issue for them is that there is an experienced pool of unemployed labor that businesses prefer to hire first, not that the highly skilled jobs are going over seas.

Long term, I'm not worried about the people that are capable of doing highly skilled work. Long term unemployment among people with engineering degrees is not likely to ever get high. I'm worried about the people that used to be able to have a middle class lifestyle working in relatively low-skill work.

If 20% of people get high-skill, good paying jobs, and everyone else works at McJobs at < $10/hr, will our society be able to function? I doubt it.

The costs, to hire and train someone in our field here in the US or in Europe is so high, that the value is not there, so it does not happen. The folks here that do have the skills and experiecne are paid a premium but there is no cohort behind them. In the not too distant future, the more highly paid jobs will go overseas as well, not because of economy, but because there is noone left here with the skills.

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

Bingo. How this manifests itself today is like Europe. In Europe and now here, the newer generation is just not being hired at all. Spain i belive has something like 50% youth unemployment The reasons for this is that companys are unwilling to hire anyone in the developed economies who is not already skilled. I see this at my mega corp all time time, we talk about using leverage in our skills, meaning offshoring the entry level work to free up senior folks to do the senior level stuff. This off course will cut off the number of skilled folks down the line.

The costs, to hire and train someone in our field here in the US or in Europe is so high, that the value is not there, so it does not happen. The folks here that do have the skills and experiecne are paid a premium but there is no cohort behind them. In the not too distant future, the more highly paid jobs will go overseas as well, not because of economy, but because there is noone left here with the skills.

You hear about this in the news all them time, employers saying they cant hire skilled people, and its true. I am a hiring manager and I find it more and more difficult to get skilled folks. I am not allowed to hire entry level folks here, those all go to india. So, in one sense, i hit the lottery by having the skills but in another, i fear where this will lead....

Steel

Perhaps that's the heart of the problem. The common mantra is that everyone should go to college. The reality is not everyone should. Likewise, schools at all levels should be teaching practical skills along with theory. There is a dramatic disconnect between "The Academy" and Corporate America.

 

[Bimmerbill]

We continue to have issues hiring people into the trade apprentice program here. I guess there are plenty of people getting hired, but not a good success rate getting thru training.

Maybe I will ask what the issue is. I got the feeling it was the academics involved in the traininig.

 

[packrat44]

That was a joke, not a political statement.

I liked your joke.

 

[Hamlet]

This article makes me a little hopeful--

Oil and Gas Boom Lifts U.S. Economy - WSJ.com

 

[M Paquette]

For what it's worth, I think we are entering a transitional period in which we will migrate away from the old structure in which there were relatively few wealthy or poor, and most folks fell into a "middle class" earning a comfortable income. Historically this is a very unusual state for a population. The transition should return us to a historically more typical structure, with a very large population of relatively low income persons, and considerably fewer people in each higher tranche of wealth and income, similar to th 1850s and earlier.

Note that those in the lowest income tranche will still be fairly well off compared to folks a hundred years ago, and statistically there will be a few folks worse off than they are, just has happened in older societies. One might call them the proletariat, or the peasants, but they're really just the service class, the folks who have jobs because they're cheaper or more disposable than relatively expensive automation.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/us-labor-market-increasingly-low-wage-driven/

 

[Steel Rain]

For what it's worth, I think we are entering a transitional period in which we will migrate away from the old structure in which there were relatively few wealthy or poor, and most folks fell into a "middle class" earning a comfortable income. Historically this is a very unusual state for a population. The transition should return us to a historically more typical structure, with a very large population of relatively low income persons, and considerably fewer people in each higher tranche of wealth and income, similar to th 1850s and earlier.

Note that those in the lowest income tranche will still be fairly well off compared to folks a hundred years ago, and statistically there will be a few folks worse off than they are, just has happened in older societies. One might call them the proletariat, or the peasants, but they're really just the service class, the folks who have jobs because they're cheaper or more disposable than relatively expensive automation.

US Labor Market: Increasingly Low-Wage Driven | The Big Picture

I completely agree. The one thing that seems to be a trueism is that "poor" is very reletive. The poor in this country have cell phones, housing for the most part, are not starving, etc. Not that I think that should be the case, but I think that folks measure themselve by whats around them, not what is actually the case.

Steel

 

[DoingHomework]

I think your premise is flawed. Until recently, new graduates in skilled fields (engineering, the hard sciences, most MBA's, doctors, lawyers, etc) have had very low unemployment rates.

I work for a US-European partnership organization. We can natively employee both European and US people. We have been trying to hire several medium level positions for at least 3 years now without success. We pay well but can't get many qualified people to apply. These are scientific and engineering positions. We are a good place to work with a good reputation. We get a few applicants but generally I don't think the unemployment rate among skilled technical people is very high here or in Europe. Our partners in Europe are having similar trouble finding qualified people. These are not senior positions nor entry level. They are jobs that typically require 2-5 years experience but could be filled by a sharp person just out of college.

I don't doubt the numbers, I just think there are tremendous structural differences in unemployment but here and in Europe. There seems to be a shortage of engineers but likely a surplus of bankers!

 

[Steel Rain]

I work for a US-European partnership organization. We can natively employee both European and US people. We have been trying to hire several medium level positions for at least 3 years now without success. We pay well but can't get many qualified people to apply. These are scientific and engineering positions. We are a good place to work with a good reputation. We get a few applicants but generally I don't think the unemployment rate among skilled technical people is very high here or in Europe. Our partners in Europe are having similar trouble finding qualified people. These are not senior positions nor entry level. They are jobs that typically require 2-5 years experience but could be filled by a sharp person just out of college.

I don't doubt the numbers, I just think there are tremendous structural differences in unemployment but here and in Europe. There seems to be a shortage of engineers but likely a surplus of bankers!

The situation is a little better here in the states. I can generally fill spots but i agree that it took longer in the UK. Our jobs are also technical in nature. Interestingly, its getting tougher in India as well. We have had couple of situations where folks paid others to take phone screens for them. That tells me demand is outstripping supply, even in India.

Steel

 

[ERD50]

I liked your joke.

You mean he's not a lawyer?


- ERD50

 

[Independent]

I saw this yesterday:

About 1.5 million, or 53.6 percent, of bachelor's degree-holders under the age of 25 last year were jobless or underemployed, the highest share in at least 11 years.
...
In the last year, they were more likely to be employed as waiters, waitresses, bartenders and food-service helpers than as engineers, physicists, chemists and mathematicians combined (100,000 versus 90,000).

There were more working in office-related jobs such as receptionist or payroll clerk than in all computer professional jobs (163,000 versus 100,000).

More also were employed as cashiers, retail clerks and customer representatives than engineers (125,000 versus 80,000).

 

[rodi]

Independent - how many of those unemployed, or working as waitstaff or in retail had degrees in engineering, physics, chemistry and mathematics.

The declared major matters. An Art History degree does not qualify you for a job as an engineer or physicist.

 

[growing_older]

not that young people can't find jobs, it's that most can't find jobs with meaningful security and benefits anymore. More and more young people are hired as contract workers which means that, when the economy tanks, they are the first to go.

I don't think this is just younger workers. When the economy tanks, companies have been pretty quick to let workers at all levels go.

 

[traineeinvestor]

For what it's worth, I think we are entering a transitional period in which we will migrate away from the old structure in which there were relatively few wealthy or poor, and most folks fell into a "middle class" earning a comfortable income. Historically this is a very unusual state for a population. The transition should return us to a historically more typical structure, with a very large population of relatively low income persons, and considerably fewer people in each higher tranche of wealth and income, similar to th 1850s and earlier.

I agree with this as far as it applies to America and other 'developed' countries.

In much of the rest of the world, we are seeing the opposite with incredible numbers of people joining the middle class for the first time - a trend that is likely to continue for some time.

 

[Independent]

Independent - how many of those unemployed, or working as waitstaff or in retail had degrees in engineering, physics, chemistry and mathematics.

The declared major matters. An Art History degree does not qualify you for a job as an engineer or physicist.

I think that's a good question. I'm sure we'd agree on the direction of the answer - Art History grads aren't finding jobs that require college degrees as frequently as engineering grads.
But, I'd like to see the data, how big is the difference?
More important, I think that every HS senior should see the data before he/she decides to invest in a degree.

Unfortunately, the underlying source for this report is the Current Population Survey, which collects data on level of education, but not degree or school.

 

[Chuckanut]

Chile reformed their SS system at least 12 years ago. Maybe we can catch up some day.

 

[ejman]

Chile reformed their SS system at least 12 years ago. Maybe we can catch up some day.

As is sometimes the case be careful - sometimes one gets what one wishes for-

DAVID LANGER COMPANY, INC

Note that this article is from 1998 . Do not know what the update is for the last 14 years or so.

 

[Free To Canoe]

...These are not senior positions nor entry level. They are jobs that typically require 2-5 years experience but could be filled by a sharp person just out of college.
!

Read no one over 40 need apply, regardless of qualifications.

Scott Burns is kind of a downer.

 

[Chuckanut]

As is sometimes the case be careful - sometimes one gets what one wishes for-

DAVID LANGER COMPANY, INC

Note that this article is from 1998 . Do not know what the update is for the last 14 years or so.

I was not advocating we copy Chile's reforms, simply that they did something while we have twiddled away the years. Certainly we should learn from their mistakes.

 

[MasterBlaster]

Read no one over 40 need apply, regardless of qualifications.

Scott Burns is kind of a downer.

Is Scott Burn's a downer because he points out the obvious and writes about inevitable conclusion(s) ?

I agree though, All those Bad Vibes completely ruin the important stuff like "American Idol" and "The Bachelor" episodes ?

- Party on Garth !