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Old 11-20-2008, 01:08 AM   #61
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BG,

IMHO, your posts are a little long-winded, however I also sense that you are being sincere. Thus, although your position does not represent the majority view, I feel you are entitled to your opinion and that we, as a board, should not hammer on you simply because you expouse a view that we may collectively disagree with. As for myself, I would be surprised if we are looking at another 50 to 75% drop, or that it will take 5 to 25 years to recover. Having said that, I do agree with the general principle that markets tend to overshoot on the way up, and overshoot on the way down. Thus, I wouldn't be too surprised if we still have a way to drop before we see the bottom. I, too, have no crystal ball . . . but if I were to venture a guess I'd say the bottom was somewhere in the neighborhood of 7500 on the DOW (if I'm being optimistic), and as low as 6000 if I were to be more pessimistic. How long it will take to recover is a tough call, but I don't expect to see a V-shaped recovery this time.
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Old 11-20-2008, 01:12 AM   #62
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harley, this isn't really fair. The topic was "The Economy". I'm new here, and I'm getting instant hostility for posting my thoughts. Yes, they were winded and I apologized. There were at least a couple of people who were genuinely interested and were engaging with me. I honestly don't understand why people feel so territorial about these forums, and feel they must gang up on others to enforce a certain posting "culture." You know, just scroll on and shut up if you're not interested...
I didn't think I was pissing and moaning. I just thought I would find some kindred spirits here being FIREd myself, and it looks like I was sadly mistaken. The place feels unwelcoming. I've unintentionally irritated the locals, so I'll just move right along down the highway.
I may be a big galloot but I can take a hint.
11 posts and you're outta here? Without a moderator assist that has to be some sort of record. Even Millionaire Mommy Next Door stuck it out for longer than that.

There's an alternative explanation to what you choose to interpret as hostility. My point is that prolix essays don't get much discussion because many of the issues have been beaten to death by other posters over the previous months/years and not everyone is going to drag up those old threads.

Posters tend to share a common vocabulary based on the books & articles recommended here, and a lot of that comes from the FAQs and the FAQ archives. What you see as a wonderful discovery, new and untarnished, may have been exhaustively discussed by the last poster to have made that same wonderful discovery a month or two ago. What you see as a fresh & interesting topic has possibly burned out the rest of the crowd, especially after a couple years of election campaigns and economic proselytizing.

You use words like "irrefutable", "no uncertain terms", and "data don't lie". Not much room for discussion, unless you're looking for a bunch of sycophants. And those absolutes tend to shut down dialogue rather than encourage a closer examination of the various interpretations of the data.

For someone who claims to prefer not to be taken seriously, you're sporting a thin skin. You could take the time to get to know the way the topics have been discussed here, to read the old threads on keywords you're interested in, and to generally understand the culture you've chosen to immerse yourself in.

Or you can shout your thoughts out to the room, stomp your feet when you don't get what you want, and storm off in a huff.
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Old 11-20-2008, 04:51 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by big galloot View Post
I've unintentionally irritated the locals, so I'll just move right along down the highway.

I may be a big galloot but I can take a hint.
Don't let a few forum comments scare you away. I enjoyed your posts and your point of view though maybe a tad on the long side. What keeps the quality in the forum is hearing from more than the same handful of "ten a day posters".

Remember that you are going to need some very thick skin for this downturn as well as the ability to just step back and laugh. Think of this as another test of your new approach to life.

Cheers
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Old 11-20-2008, 06:57 AM   #64
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I hope you haven't left already. I found your posts to be interesting, although they are probably targeted at the wrong audience. I read this forum for the same reason I read perma-bear forums and trading forums . . . except in this case to see what the most stubborn of the buy and hold group are thinking. You're probably better off not trying to engage them in a serious discussion, as they are quite rigid in their views and aren't likely to be too receptive to different ideas (especially given their position in the current market . . . they were a lot friendlier at DOW 14000). There is a lot of good information here and it's worth spending the time to read much of it.
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Old 11-20-2008, 07:30 AM   #65
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I read this forum for the same reason I read perma-bear forums and trading forums . . . except in this case to see what the most stubborn of the buy and hold group are thinking. You're probably better off not trying to engage them in a serious discussion, as they are quite rigid in their views and aren't likely to be too receptive to different ideas (especially given their position in the current market . . . they were a lot friendlier at DOW 14000).
Interesting that you apparently consider those of us who post here to be the human equivalent of lab rats in a science experiment. And after six years on the forum and 650 posts, you refer to forum members as "them", not "us".

You have a nice day.
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Old 11-20-2008, 07:46 AM   #66
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Here is another take on revision to the mean:

Amid the Doom and Gloom, Financial Crisis could Have a Happy Ending

"Yes, it sounds like pie-in-the-sky thinking right now. But there's reason to think good things are in store for investors."
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Old 11-20-2008, 07:55 AM   #67
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Interesting that you apparently consider those of us who post here to be the human equivalent of lab rats in a science experiment. And after six years on the forum and 650 posts, you refer to forum members as "them", not "us".

You have a nice day.
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Old 11-20-2008, 09:12 AM   #68
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Hey, don't make fun of us lab rats! And buy and hold? What's that?
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