Found this on the other forum Spending Safely.
It's only a rule of thumb at best to begin with, but the 4% SWR has become gospel to an awful lot of people. Interesting that (arguably) the father of the idea hasn't recommended it for several years...
 Quote:
The 4% mantra started with Bill Bengen, 60, a soft-spoken investment adviser in El Cajon, Calif., who has written a series of landmark research papers since 1994 on safe withdrawal rates. What most people don't realize, though, is that Bengen no longer recommends the 4% rate. "The figure is stuck in the corner of people's minds, and I don't know how to get it out," he laments.
Bengen now suggests that the 4% figure—actually 4.1% for a 60/40 portfolio of large caps and bonds and 4.5% if you toss in small caps—merely seems impressive when plugged into Excel spreadsheets. In practice, the strategy, which Bengen stopped using with his own clients about three years ago, is inflexible and unrealistic he says—and the formula is too stingy.
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Retiring May 2010 --- maybe.
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