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The Great Fall of China...
Old 01-04-2008, 03:47 PM   #1
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The Great Fall of China...

Just saw this interesting editorial from the Los Angeles Times reprinted in our local news paper this morning. Looks like the size of China's economy had been significantly over-estimated:

"The most important story to come out of Washington recently had nothing to do with the endless presidential campaign. And although the media largely ignored it, the story changes the world.

The story's unlikely source was the staid World Bank, which published updated statistics on the economic output of 146 countries. China's economy, said the bank, is smaller than it thought.

About 40% smaller.

China, it turns out, isn't a $10-trillion economy on the brink of catching up with the United States. It is a $6-trillion economy, less than half our size. For the foreseeable future, China will have far less money to spend on its military and will face much deeper social and economic problems at home than experts previously believed."
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Old 01-04-2008, 05:11 PM   #2
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The size may be overestimated but the recent growth has been real. That doesn't mean the 100% annual gains will continue.
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Old 01-04-2008, 07:00 PM   #3
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I agree. The growth is certainly real. Just go there and you'll see.
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Old 01-04-2008, 07:46 PM   #4
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I heard a theory that the hyper growth has been partly due to the 2008 Olympics, and that some of it will evaporate afterwards.

Who knows. I don't follow China. Just something I heard.....

Audrey
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Old 01-04-2008, 09:28 PM   #5
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Quote:
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I heard a theory that the hyper growth has been partly due to the 2008 Olympics, and that some of it will evaporate afterwards.

Who knows. I don't follow China. Just something I heard.....

Audrey
I read an article a while back written by Li Yining. He gave reasons for why post-Olympic life wouldn't be the end of economic growth in China, not that he was expecting growth that's as fast as it has been.

I thought the article was on his blog, but apparently it's not. This is something that is essentially the same idea of what I referred to. If I find the exact thing I was looking for, I'll let you know. й*ò֡˺ (In the picture, there's what will be the Olympic stadium and the aquatics center (up front)). Edited: Here's more on it, but still not exactly what I was looking for.

Blog's here though if you want to read it:

He's an official though, so that has to be taken into account.
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Old 01-05-2008, 03:04 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
I heard a theory that the hyper growth has been partly due to the 2008 Olympics, and that some of it will evaporate afterwards.

Who knows. I don't follow China. Just something I heard.....

Audrey
A friend of mine who's been living (and working before ER @ 50) for a decade in HK thinks that things will settle down a bit after the Olympics are finished but that the momentum will remain. He's more invested in India (35%) than China (15%) and has 10% in europe and 0% in the US...
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Old 01-05-2008, 03:59 AM   #7
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Anybody who thinks China still has some oomph left should take a look at CAF. 30% discount to NAV for A shares.
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Old 01-05-2008, 06:49 AM   #8
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After Bejing Olympics it will be saber rattlin time about Taiwan. Then a move on them??
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Old 01-05-2008, 08:14 AM   #9
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The other day, I was watching Chinese television (news). The newscaster presented a story on the stock market and remarked about how some experts were advising "look before you leap" this year with respect to the market. A lot of people there put all their spare money into the market. They'd lose it all.
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