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Old 04-11-2013, 11:50 AM   #21
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One thing is that during much of the 70s-90s women, especially younger women, were being fully integrated into the workforce. This boosted household income out of proportion to economic growth. That trend has run its course, and in fact has to some small extent reversed. So one support to buying power has been used up as a growing factor.

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Old 04-11-2013, 11:54 AM   #22
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Robert Shiller says housing grows in value slightly more than inflation, has done this for many decades and projects it will continue. I recall reading last year he then felt that in general, housing prices were back in line with their historical trend.
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Old 04-11-2013, 11:56 AM   #23
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I think the article is theory. obviously if it's just the 2 of you and you have a 4 bedroom house it's larger than you need.

it does not mean you want or have to leave it-just that you really don't need it.
(Emphasis added). Echoes of recent pronouncements from certain "public figures". I'm with those who say the folks who live in the house, who have decided to spend their own money to buy it, are likely best positioned to know what they need. Some of these old coots have hobbies that require a room or two, or they enjoy having their kids/grandkids/friends stay the night on occasion.
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Old 04-11-2013, 12:27 PM   #24
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(Emphasis added). Echoes of recent pronouncements from certain "public figures". I'm with those who say the folks who live in the house, who have decided to spend their own money to buy it, are likely best positioned to know what they need. Some of these old coots have hobbies that require a room or two, or they enjoy having their kids/grandkids/friends stay the night on occasion.
+1000 Who are we to say what somebody else needs, when you think of it? "Never criticize a man until you've walked a mile in his moccasins", as the saying goes. Which is not to say that anybody was criticizing anybody, but simply that we can't know all the factors that inspire someone else to buy a large home.

Speaking of hobbies that require space, I am thinking of Jay Leno with all his cars, and the huge garage area that he very likely has.
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Old 04-11-2013, 12:33 PM   #25
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My experience is that older folks stay in their homes long past their abilities to maintain them. The government has taken a lot of flack for taxing the seniors out of their home. Now the pendulum has swung the other way. There are all the programs that help seniors stay put.
Interesting post! Come to think of it, this year I will turn 65, so I will qualify to have my property tax assessment frozen for life. As long as I don't move, my property will never be assessed at more than it is right now. That is a good motivation to stay put, since my property taxes are very low.
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Old 04-11-2013, 01:01 PM   #26
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As I recall we baby boomers are going to sell off all our stocks and drive the stock market down, down, down for several decades. Now, we will be doing the same to the housing market. No doubt all of these predictions are 100% accurate.

Looks like a buying opportunity for our kids and grand kids.
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Old 04-11-2013, 01:22 PM   #27
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+1000 Who are we to say what somebody else needs, when you think of it?
Deciding what others need, and therefore get to keep, is pretty much the essence of modern redistributionist democracy. Nothing better differentiates the 19th century from the last and current centuries.

Look at the latest budget. "You over there don't need all this, but these deserving folks over here do. Only one fair way to repair this."

I am beginning to have a new, helpful way to identify demagoguery. Frequency of the word "folks" in interviews and speeches. Looking back, I don't think anyone has ever used the word folks to me, who wasn't trying to manipulate me.

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Old 04-11-2013, 01:55 PM   #28
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Even as a young coot, my hobbies and their supplies filled one of our 4 bedrooms. I've always viewed work as a support system for life's real purpose: hobbies!

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(Emphasis added). ESome of these old coots have hobbies that require a room or two, .
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Old 04-11-2013, 02:41 PM   #29
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Interesting post! Come to think of it, this year I will turn 65, so I will qualify to have my property tax assessment frozen for life. As long as I don't move, my property will never be assessed at more than it is right now. That is a good motivation to stay put, since my property taxes are very low.
Or to move NOW before your birthday!
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Old 04-11-2013, 03:04 PM   #30
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I don't think many seniors will be sold. Who would buy them?
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Old 04-11-2013, 03:20 PM   #31
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There is a difference between need and want. Although.....the middle ground is what gets fought over. I play golf, ride a bike, play mandolin...all expensive. Do I need them....no. Do I want them...yes.
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:06 PM   #32
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There is a difference between need and want. Although.....the middle ground is what gets fought over. I play golf, ride a bike, play mandolin...all expensive. Do I need them....no. Do I want them...yes.
In musing over your post above, it occurred to me that the definition of "need" is pretty nebulous. Really, I suppose that I don't strictly NEED much more in housing than a refrigerator box under a bridge, if that, since New Orleans has a relatively benign climate. But will I settle for that? Not on your life. I WANT a nice place that I can feel is a wonderful, comfortable, beautiful home, and the home that I have seems like that to me.

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I don't think many seniors will be sold. Who would buy them?
Too many wrinkles!
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:08 PM   #33
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(Emphasis added). Echoes of recent pronouncements from certain "public figures". I'm with those who say the folks who live in the house, who have decided to spend their own money to buy it, are likely best positioned to know what they need. Some of these old coots have hobbies that require a room or two, or they enjoy having their kids/grandkids/friends stay the night on occasion.
i meant needs=in the minimum sense-not in the you really don't need it sense.
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:16 PM   #34
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In musing over your post above, it occurred to me that the definition of "need" is pretty nebulous.
Absolutely. I suppose when we get to Mazlow's first level we've met our "needs." 2000 calories per day, some clothing and suitable temps and we're done.
One person asks: "Why does he need that?"
Another asks: "If I've got the resources, why shouldn't I have that?"

I think it's fine that most people need to go through life a rung or two above mere "survival" level.
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Old 04-11-2013, 05:10 PM   #35
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I don't think many seniors will be sold. Who would buy them?
I would ! There is a huge need for single straight older men in Sarasota . I would start an escort service ( no sex) and roll in the money .I can picture all those older women scanning my website for the perfect escort to the opera or the ballet !
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Old 04-11-2013, 05:22 PM   #36
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I don't see how seniors selling houses could cause a "crisis". It would be a slow, long term process that would tend to slow price increases, not generate a sudden price drop.

Many people will stay in the old home for sentimental reasons,
they'll discover they still want the extra space for kids and grandkids even if it's just a week per year,
they'll discover that now that they are both home all day they both want the space to get away from each other.
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Old 04-11-2013, 08:16 PM   #37
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Look at the latest budget. "You over there don't need all this, but these deserving folks over here do. Only one fair way to repair this."

I am beginning to have a new, helpful way to identify demagoguery. Frequency of the word "folks" in interviews and speeches. Looking back, I don't think anyone has ever used the word folks to me, who wasn't trying to manipulate me.
You folks think to much. You folks are dangerous!

With apologies to Shakespeare.......
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Old 04-11-2013, 11:21 PM   #38
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There has been articles about the future glut of boomer houses for at least 10 years. I used to buy into that statement, but I keep seeing big new houses getting built in the new subdivisions. So maybe one day, but not today.

I used to work in the mining industry, and moved from remote little 'town' to remote little 'town'. Many of the other folks I worked with would buy a house in the location, but then be unable to sell it when they were transferred, because these places were small and remote. The company often ended up buying the house. Having unsellable houses has always happened in rural areas. If one travels around the north central prairie of the USA you will see many old abandoned farm houses in remote areas. One clue as to when they were last occupied is if they have a power line to the house or not.

Also, I've had two different elderly relatives who would not leave their homes even when they no longer could take care of the house or themselves. It was not until they each hurt themselves at home that we were able to get them to a proper care facility (directly from the hospital in both cases). Those homes were a wreck needed to alot of repair to sell. On the other hand, I used to travel alot, and the airport van I regularly used would sometimes stop at one particular retirement apartments. The van would pick up a couple in their 60s who had sold their house and moved there as soon as they retired. That was their base, but the spent most of their time traveling. After they were dropped off one time, all of us boomers in the van were jealous, and said that is what we wanted to do, rather than our parents, who thought of retirement places as warehouses of death.
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Old 04-11-2013, 11:34 PM   #39
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I am beginning to have a new, helpful way to identify demagoguery. Frequency of the word "folks" in interviews and speeches. Looking back, I don't think anyone has ever used the word folks to me, who wasn't trying to manipulate me.

Ha
I've notice the increase in the use of the word 'folks' also, but attributed it to the negative reaction big shots get when they use the phrase 'you people'. Pretty much everyone hates that term. Apparently we need a version of the spanish 'ustedes" in English.
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Old 04-12-2013, 01:21 AM   #40
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Looking back, I don't think anyone has ever used the word folks to me, who wasn't trying to manipulate me.
Uh-oh... Then I may be in for a boatload of misconstruance; I've used the word my whole life. Folks is folks.

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