The Great Senior Sell-Off Could Cause the Next Housing Crisis

[Texas Proud]

I am another who thinks that this is overblown.... even if all the seniors wanted to divest... economics would mean that it would not happen...

First, there will be a number of seniors who buy a smaller place. BTW, there is not a lot of supply, so prices will go up on these...

So, the next wave of seniors will look at how expensive it is to move into a smaller place and say 'F## it', I will just stay here....


Another reason that it is overblown is that there is still a pretty big growth rate to our population...



Third... birth rates have been going up and are higher than the end of the baby boom.... it is not like the number has dropped a big percent.... here are the numbers in thousand by year (from Census):

First time saved really bad... now only bad... sorry...


1960 4,258 1965 3,760 1970 3,731 1971 3,556 1972 3,258 1973 3,137 1974 3,160 1975 3,144 1976 3,168 1977 3,327 1978 3,333 1979 3,494 1980 3,612 1981 3,629 1982 3,680 1983 3,638 1984 3,669 1985 3,760 1986 3,756 1987 3,809 1988 3,909 1989 4,040 1990 4,158 1991 4,110 1992 4,065 1993 4,000 1994 3,952 1995 3,899 1996 3,891 1997 3,880 1998 3,941 1999 3,959 2000 4,058 2001 4,025 2002 4,021 2003 4,089 2004 4,112 2005 4,138 2006 4,266 2007 4,316 2008 4,248

 

[W2R]

I am another who thinks that this is overblown.... even if all the seniors wanted to divest... economics would mean that it would not happen...

First, there will be a number of seniors who buy a smaller place. BTW, there is not a lot of supply, so prices will go up on these...

So, the next wave of seniors will look at how expensive it is to move into a smaller place and say 'F## it', I will just stay here....

(emphasis mine) Now that you mention it, a lot of seniors are already saying that, IMO. Moving is a LOT of work. I have been thinking of moving at some point, but gosh, when you think of all that effort to get the house ready to put on the market (yet again), and pack everything up and move it, and get the new home fixed up and renovated the way I want it, that's a lot of work. And then, when you add to that the ridiculous expense involved in order to accomplish all of this, it makes my present home look so appealing to me. Even though it is small enough, it has its flaws; but for now I would rather live with them than go through all that.

 

[Midpack]

So, the next wave of seniors will look at how expensive it is to move into a smaller place and say 'F## it', I will just stay here.

+2. All the costs & logistics would seem to be a significant deterrent, IIRC the link said (only) 7% of seniors over 65 were likely to relocate. We plan to move one more time, but we're in no hurry because it will be very disruptive in terms of logistics, money and social relationships...

 

[Accidental Retiree]

Except that 'ustedes' is plural, and 'Y'all' is singular (the plural of 'Y'all' being 'All Y'all')

How to Use Y'all Correctly - Southern Slang

Tyro

I am a native Texan, and I would never use "y'all" to refer to a single person.
I would use it to refer to a small group, maybe 2 or 3.

DH and I are in our late 50s and would consider moving one more time, if we could find the right place for the right price in our preferred area. In fact, we are heading down toward the Central Coast pretty soon to do some househunting again.

But we may just as easily stay put, too, and continue to fix things up around here, with an eye on marketability but also on our own preferences.

 

[warren]

Been in my 4 Bdr split level over 30 years now and haven't even considered downsizing. We both have hobbies that require "rooms" and with our mortgage payment under $600, where would we begin to find something that affordable? If push comes to shove, we just take out a Reverse Mortgage and the market won't matter until the kids get it

 

[haha]

I can tell you what would move seniors out and fast. Natural gas prices going to $12/mmbtu.

Seems very unlikely now, but back in '07 today's $4 and 2012's sub $2 prices seemed very unlikely too.

Bernanke may be able to suppress interest rates, but I doubt he would even try with natural gas.

Ha

 

[warren]

I can tell you what would move seniors out and fast. Natural gas prices going to $12/mmbtu.

Seems very unlikely now, but back in '07 today's $4 and 2012's sub $2 prices seemed very unlikely too.

Bernanke may be able to suppress interest rates, but I doubt he would even try with natural gas.

Ha

Fortunately I live near Portland Oregon where hydro-power takes gas off my short list of ways to run my home. I belong to a Public Utility District so even in winter my bill is under $200 for power, sewer and water combined. Actually that's an approximate figure, since my wife does the bills.

 

[audreyh1]

Except that 'ustedes' is plural, and 'Y'all' is singular (the plural of 'Y'all' being 'All Y'all')

How to Use Y'all Correctly - Southern Slang

Tyro

Y'all is plural. All y'all just refers to a much bigger group.

Actually, in Spanish the equivalents are "ustedes" and "todos ustedes", and I've heard "todos ustedes" fairly often.

 

[Amethyst]

Surprised no one has mentioned W. PA's "yunz." Then again, I've never heard "yunz" in a really friendly context. It seems to be used to inform people they are wrong, or had better stop doing something.

Amethyst

 

[Tyro]

Y'all is plural. All y'all just refers to a much bigger group.

Actually, in Spanish the equivalents are "ustedes" and "todos ustedes", and I've heard "todos ustedes" fairly often.

As with many things, it depends on the sources.

Y'all - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"There is long-standing disagreement about whether y’all can have primarily singular reference."
​

I didn't see any sources that used "ustedes" as singular. YMMV.


Formal and Informal 'You' - Spanish Grammar for Beginners

"Plural formal: ustedes"
​

ustedes - Wiktionary

Pronoun
ustedes, pl

1. (formal in Spain) you (plural); plural form of usted
2. (Latin America, Canary Islands, Western Andalusia) you (plural)

Tyro

 

[Fishingmn]

The Millenial's are coming!

The next generation - Gen Y "millenial's" are the kids of baby boomers born 1980-2005 (or so depending on who's study) and there are more of them than there are baby boomers.

The largest number of people I am selling houses to these days are first time homebuyers. I'd be more worried about who is going to buy all of the McMansions in the outer suburbs as a trend since this younger generation seems less inclined to buy big and more inclined to living closer to the city center.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Maybe. All real estate is subject to local conditions.

Certiamento!

Years ago we moved to what has often been described as one of America's best places to retire (not for that reason, but it was a nice benefit). Housing values do appear to be bouyed by the influx of retirees from all over the country.

Years ago I worked in an uber-liberal West Coast city for a brilliant East Coast liberal who was oddly set against immigration. I asked him, who is going to buy your house? No answer, but I think he got the message.

Still, I think that US housing values have been overwhelmingly subject to regional forces rather than the demographic shift--at least, so far.

 

[audreyh1]

As with many things, it depends on the sources.

Y'all - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"There is long-standing disagreement about whether y’all can have primarily singular reference."
​

I didn't see any sources that used "ustedes" as singular. YMMV.


Formal and Informal 'You' - Spanish Grammar for Beginners

"Plural formal: ustedes"
​

ustedes - Wiktionary

Pronoun
ustedes, pl

1. (formal in Spain) you (plural); plural form of usted
2. (Latin America, Canary Islands, Western Andalusia) you (plural)

Tyro

Like ustedes, y'all is not singular. I don't care whether a "vocal minority" argues otherwise according to Wikipedia, I have been around US southerners from various states all my life and never heard it used other than plural.

 

[zedd]

All y'all are getting off topic with this y'all talk.

And thats all I've got to say about that.

Forrest, Forrest Gump

 

[Tyro]

Like ustedes, y'all is not singular. I don't care whether a "vocal minority" argues otherwise according to Wikipedia, I have been around US southerners from various states all my life and never heard it used other than plural.

I have, but it's not worth starting a second Civil War over.

"Remember: Y'all is singular. All y'all is plural. All y'all's is plural possessive." ~ Kinky Friedman
​

 

[urn2bfree]

One other factor that makes this looming "crisis" different is that it has nothing to do with credit. The seniors looking to "get out" of their houses are not as likely to be over extended, or underwater, but have considerable equity built up and so they should still come out ok...
Very different from the last housing crisis.

 

[samclem]

One other factor that makes this looming "crisis" different is that it has nothing to do with credit. The seniors looking to "get out" of their houses are not as likely to be over extended, or underwater, but have considerable equity built up and so they should still come out ok...
Very different from the last housing crisis.

But their neighbors who are >not< seniors might have less equity, more reason to have to relocate, and therefore bigger problems (if you buy the reasoning in the article--I'm not so sure).
Residential real estate probably isn't the "sure thing" for the next few decade that it has been in post WW-II America. I don't think that's a crisis. People might be better advised to put their dollars to work by investing in companies that produce services and things of value, or by loaning money to such companies. That seems a lot more sustainable than a residential real estate pyramid scheme.

 

[urn2bfree]

But their neighbors who are >not< seniors might have less equity, more reason to have to relocate, and therefore bigger problems (if you buy the reasoning in the article--I'm not so sure).
Residential real estate probably isn't the "sure thing" for the next few decade that it has been in post WW-II America. I don't think that's a crisis. People might be better advised to put their dollars to work by investing in companies that produce services and things of value, or by loaning money to such companies. That seems a lot more sustainable than a residential real estate pyramid scheme.

Except the thesis-it is right in the title of this thread- is that this crisis is from a "SENIOR SELL OFF" not the senior's neighbor sell off...so I am still not convinced this is a looming disaster akin to the last housing crisis....in fact most of the financial disasters we have experienced all seem to come from too much credit, not too much equity, or too big of a house.

 

[packrat44]

I would appreciate y'all youse seniors born between 1946 and 1964 tell me the exact year and day youse all guna list youse houses for sale. I want to list mine the month before to beat y'all to the sales table.

 

[ejman]

Crisis? What Crisis? There may be a lot of seniors rattling around in big houses that they can't sell for what they would like to get. So they'll stay in place in the big house and when they pass on the heirs will sell the houses for whatever they can get. And this transition certainly won't be taking place over a short period of time. Sort of like the stock market crash that's supposed to come about when we all simultaneously liquidate our portfolios.