Lsbcal
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Sometimes I wonder: what is luck?
Aren't we all here because of luck? And I'm not going to invoke some higher power explanation here. Why did this spherical mass we live on get the atmosphere to sustain life? Probably just luck that we evolved as we are now at this very moment. And Buffet, he's said that he was lucky to be born at a period in time where his talents could be utilized. Maybe in a few thousand years there will be a much higher percentage of Buffet minds. But the markets will be so evolved in those years that Buffet's mental advantages will be almost impossible to duplicate.
I'm personally turned off by the extreme uses (not mild statistical arguments) of the "luck explanation" when it comes to investing. Not saying Hamlet is guilty of this. But others quite often use luck as a justification for one form of investing as the only way to do things. I've seen it used here and at Bogleheads in some outrageous ways.
I think the luck explanation should be used sparingly.
Aren't we all here because of luck? And I'm not going to invoke some higher power explanation here. Why did this spherical mass we live on get the atmosphere to sustain life? Probably just luck that we evolved as we are now at this very moment. And Buffet, he's said that he was lucky to be born at a period in time where his talents could be utilized. Maybe in a few thousand years there will be a much higher percentage of Buffet minds. But the markets will be so evolved in those years that Buffet's mental advantages will be almost impossible to duplicate.
I'm personally turned off by the extreme uses (not mild statistical arguments) of the "luck explanation" when it comes to investing. Not saying Hamlet is guilty of this. But others quite often use luck as a justification for one form of investing as the only way to do things. I've seen it used here and at Bogleheads in some outrageous ways.
I think the luck explanation should be used sparingly.