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The Man From Demopolis Is Right So Far
Old 04-22-2009, 12:50 PM   #1
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The Man From Demopolis Is Right So Far

Since its inception in July 1998, the Rogers International Commodities Index has gained 158%, while the S&P 500 has fallen 23%. And that gain for the commodities index comes despite the fact that it's lost more than half of its value since last July. At these levels, Rogers has been a buyer.

Jim Rogers Isn't Buying a U.S. Stock Recovery - Barrons.com
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Old 04-22-2009, 01:14 PM   #2
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You could ask: "If he has all the answers, why did it lose half its value since last July?"
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Old 04-22-2009, 01:18 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
You could ask: "If he has all the answers, why did it lose half its value since last July?"

You could. I would not because I do not believe that one can be correct day to day. I don't think he ever said that each and every day commodities will go up in price, or that he has all the answers. He isn't that unrealistic.

While we are in a questioning mood, we might also ask why typical asset allocations that were suggested 10 years ago by respected "authorities" (Bernstein/ Bogle etc.) have produced zero real returns over ten years, and often zero nominal returns. Yet we don't ask why do we still follow this grievously flawed method? At least we don't often ask on this board.

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Old 04-22-2009, 02:57 PM   #4
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HAHA your link asked me to subscribe to barrons, this one is the same article and did not.

Jim Rogers Isn't Buying a U.S. Stock Recovery - Barrons.com

Jim Rogers has been so good for so long with long term trends and where to invest that his advice because he gives it away for free so often in Barrons seems to get discounted. He certainly is not a short term or even an intermediate term investor. He is the big trend investor and he looks for long term trends. He also is very down on the Federal Reserve and the likelihood of the Federal Reserve even existing 5-10 years from now.

I actually love his opinion on Bernanke (he calls him a nut).
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The Man From Demopolis Is Right So Far
Old 04-22-2009, 03:03 PM   #5
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The Man From Demopolis Is Right So Far

Ever been to Demopolis, AL? You would never guess somebody like him would be from that little old town. Dead dead dead. He had the smarts to get out and make a fortune. Wish I had followed his advice. I guess I'll be scratching a poor man's a$$ from now on.
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Old 04-22-2009, 07:23 PM   #6
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Running Man,

Thanks for the effort on the link to bypass the subscription, however, it didn't work for me. I will try Google. Jim Rogers is an interesting writer.

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Old 04-22-2009, 09:20 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
You could ask: "If he has all the answers, why did it lose half its value since last July?"
What lost half of its value was the Rogers Commodities Index, not Roger's personal fortune which is kept private.

An explanation is in order for the Rogers Commodities Index. I read Rogers' books. He explained that when he decided to invest in commodities, he looked for a benchmark to represent commodity prices, and did not find a suitable one, so he made up his own. For example, he observed that rice has been a major staples around the world, but not adequately represented in the existing indices.

A drop of commodity prices would cause the Roger Index, in fact any commodity index, to drop. If Jim Rogers was able to tell in 2007 that the world recession would impact demand and got out of commodities, and now is getting back in, we do not know.

I do know that Jim is bullish on commodity demand for the long term, as the industrialization of China will be the driving factor. That is a highly plausible story, in my view. Keep an eye on the Chinese economy. When it resumes its boom, the commodity exporters in other countries will be rolling in dough. Same with the dry bulk shippers.
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Old 04-22-2009, 09:34 PM   #8
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Free to canoe -

Go to youtube and search for Rogers. All of his Bloomberg interviews seemed to be posted there and that is where he is often interviewed. Just an fyi in case you want to follow him.

One thing that I have heard Rogers mention before is to look at 10 year cycles. He said at that time that asset classes/sectors run in 10 year cycles and to always look at the lowest returning classes/sectors in that group.

Now if that is what he really believed, commodities and emerging markets (namely China) would pretty much be out and those are the two he is positive about today.

I must say the guy has made some incredible calls. Not all have been right but he has a good enough track to have made quite a bit of money when everyone has lost money.
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Old 04-22-2009, 11:11 PM   #9
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Copper price was as high as $4/lb in early 2008, collapsed down to below $1.5/lb in 2008 year end, and has climbed to above $2/lb now.

In the same time frame, Freeport McMoran stock price dropped from $120 down to $16, then climbed up to $40 now. Such volatility!

For what it's worth, the linked article below suggests that the recent run-up in copper price may not last as the Chinese economy recovery has not really picked up.

Freeport-McMoRan Digs For Solutions - Forbes.com
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Old 04-22-2009, 11:20 PM   #10
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He also said the places to be;
1807 europe
1907 us
2007 asia
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