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Old 03-07-2008, 11:10 AM   #41
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The good news is that the support line for the DJIA is at 11,950 (we need to finish the week above there). The bad news is that the NASDAQ and SPX has already blown through any support it may have had, and small stocks usually lead the big boys up AND down.
If I had a lump sum, I would either DCA it into the market from here or else wait. For my money, I'd rather be late than early. JMO.
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Old 03-07-2008, 11:12 AM   #42
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I hope you are right! It would be just my luck for the market to go sideways in the long term for the next 40 years.
I'm guessing this will fall on deaf ears, but Allianz Vision is the perfect product for a sideways market. Of course, you'd need to decide that for yourself. (I guess I need to get one of those permanent disclaimers in my posts.)
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Old 03-07-2008, 11:16 AM   #43
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The good news is that the support line for the DJIA is at 11,950 (we need to finish the week above there). The bad news is that the NASDAQ and SPX has already blown through any support it may have had, and small stocks usually lead the big boys up AND down.
If I had a lump sum, I would either DCA it into the market from here or else wait. For my money, I'd rather be late than early. JMO.
I'd at least wait until Helicopter Ben drops the rate another 75 points and the Dow shoots down. There's another big drop up ahead, according to my cubic-zirconia cube. FWIW, YMMV, JMHO, etc.
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Old 03-07-2008, 11:16 AM   #44
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I'm guessing this will fall on deaf ears, but Allianz Vision is the perfect product for a sideways market. Of course, you'd need to decide that for yourself. (I guess I need to get one of those permanent disclaimers in my posts.)
Yep. I'm kind of diehard'ish when it comes to investing (though I do have a bunch in Wellesley but I just plan to DCA some of the rest into equity index funds at this point).
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Old 03-07-2008, 11:19 AM   #45
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I'd at least wait until Helicopter Ben drops the rate another 75 points and the Dow shoots down. There's another big drop up ahead, according to my cubic-zirconia cube. FWIW, YMMV, JMHO, etc.
No wonder my crystal ball isn't working - - obviously I need a cubic-zirconia cube.

I just hope that the market settles down and starts climbing steadily at some point after the elections.
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Old 03-07-2008, 11:25 AM   #46
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I heard this morning on Bloomberg news, they're talking about a 1% drop in March.
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Old 03-07-2008, 11:27 AM   #47
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Yep. I'm kind of diehard'ish when it comes to investing (though I do have a bunch in Wellesley but I just plan to DCA some of the rest into equity index funds at this point).
When my dad was diagnosed terminal in 2005, he sold all of his investments in their Vanguard accounts and put everything into a money market fund for my mom (who knows zero about investing and has no inclination to learn).

So last year I started directing the investments for her. Recently I've been DCAing her IRA (about $220K) into a handful of Vanguard funds including Wellesley. I've only moved $50K so far, so if this panic continues I'll be getting better and better entry points for her in the future. It's just about time to move another $10-20K anyway.
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Old 03-07-2008, 11:45 AM   #48
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When my dad was diagnosed terminal in 2005, he sold all of his investments in their Vanguard accounts and put everything into a money market fund for my mom (who knows zero about investing and has no inclination to learn).

So last year I started directing the investments for her. Recently I've been DCAing her IRA (about $220K) into a handful of Vanguard funds including Wellesley. I've only moved $50K so far, so if this panic continues I'll be getting better and better entry points for her in the future. It's just about time to move another $10-20K anyway.
I am sorry to hear about your father.

In my case just went ahead and invested immediately into Wellesley for the percentage planned, since due to the bond fraction in Wellesley, it isn't as volatile as the equity funds can be. I am DCA'ing into Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) and Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US Index (VFWIX). When the final 1/3rd of my inheritance is distributed, hopefully this summer, I will have an opportunity to reassess and tweak or add funds if desired.
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Old 03-07-2008, 11:59 AM   #49
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In my case just went ahead and invested immediately into Wellesley for the percentage planned, since due to the bond fraction in Wellesley, it isn't as volatile as the equity funds can be. I am DCA'ing into Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) and Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US Index (VFWIX). When the final 1/3rd of my inheritance is distributed, hopefully this summer, I will have an opportunity to reassess and tweak or add funds if desired.
I'm being more cautious than I'd normally be. Mom is very unlikely to ever need this money, but it will ultimately be part of an inheritance shared between myself and three siblings. Since it's not just her or me being impacted by the results, I'm erring on the side of being a bit conservative with it.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 03-07-2008, 12:01 PM   #50
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I've become the semi-pro financial advisor at work for about a half a dozen people who are nearing retirement (2-5 years), semi-pro cuz I'm "semi-paid" . Over the last couple of years I've gotten them out of crappy variable annuities and overly risky investments with high fees and costs and into Vanguard funds - principally Wellesly and Wellington. The other day when a couple of them were concerned I was able to show them where they would have been compared to where they are and they felt a lot better. That bond and dividend aspect really helps smooth the bumps out and keep them calm, too. I've got another friend at work who despite wanting to retire in 5 years is still gambling on the high risk end of the market. I've got her to agree to meeting with me to change her allocation and put future contributions into less risky investments, and now I'm working to move her existing portfolio into a more conservative alignment. Problem is, with the huge drop recently, I don't want to "lock in" losses.
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Old 03-07-2008, 12:05 PM   #51
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I've become the semi-pro financial advisor at work for about a half a dozen people who are nearing retirement (2-5 years), semi-pro cuz I'm "semi-paid" . Over the last couple of years I've gotten them out of crappy variable annuities and overly risky investments with high fees and costs and into Vanguard funds - principally Wellesly and Wellington. The other day when a couple of them were concerned I was able to show them where they would have been compared to where they are and they felt a lot better. That bond and dividend aspect really helps smooth the bumps out and keep them calm, too. I've got another friend at work who despite wanting to retire in 5 years is still gambling on the high risk end of the market. I've got her to agree to meeting with me to change her allocation and put future contributions into less risky investments, and now I'm working to move her existing portfolio into a more conservative alignment. Problem is, with the huge drop recently, I don't want to "lock in" losses.
How do you compensate for the risk of the declining dollar, inflation, and reduced purchasing power over time?
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Old 03-07-2008, 12:07 PM   #52
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How do you compensate for the risk of the declining dollar, inflation, and reduced purchasing power over time?
For the declining dollar? Gold and foreign securities that don't have currency risk hedged away.

Inflation? Possibly gold, possibly commodities, possibly energy, possibly TIPs. And in periods when there isn't a bursting housing bubble, REITs might be decent here, too.

Reduced purchasing power? Basically a consequence of the first two.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 03-07-2008, 12:24 PM   #53
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I've become the semi-pro financial advisor at work for about a half a dozen people who are nearing retirement (2-5 years), semi-pro cuz I'm "semi-paid" . Over the last couple of years I've gotten them out of crappy variable annuities and overly risky investments with high fees and costs and into Vanguard funds - principally Wellesly and Wellington. The other day when a couple of them were concerned I was able to show them where they would have been compared to where they are and they felt a lot better. That bond and dividend aspect really helps smooth the bumps out and keep them calm, too. I've got another friend at work who despite wanting to retire in 5 years is still gambling on the high risk end of the market. I've got her to agree to meeting with me to change her allocation and put future contributions into less risky investments, and now I'm working to move her existing portfolio into a more conservative alignment. Problem is, with the huge drop recently, I don't want to "lock in" losses.
It's a thorny problem, that's for sure! I have a similar problem in my TSP, in that I am trying to move from my (C,S,I) equity funds which I had during my accumulation phase into 100% G Fund (similar to government treasuries) as part of the fixed income in my ER asset allocation. I have just resigned myself to some loss, and I am moving about 2.5% per month from C,S, and I into G. Right now, 56% in G so I should be there in 18 months which would be a couple of months before ER.
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Old 03-07-2008, 12:29 PM   #54
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Well, you seem to have a rather intimate knowledge of his posts, his investing career and his home life.
Five minutes of reading the entire web site dedicated to people making fun of him and his investments pretty much produces that result.

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I grant you that I know nothing other than that he was a bore-which I suppose could hardly be said to be grounds for banning -and that he advocated investing in TIPS until stocks were more cheaply priced.
He was a lot more than a bore. He's been banned from 13 different forums so far and his admission to two forums caused most of the members to leave that forum and form their own (diehards and raddrs page) and one site to cease operations altogether (nofeeboards).

He advocated TIPS at ~4%, and I'd buy them at that price as well. That you cant get them at that price and probably never will again makes that advice a little bit irrelevant. Based on his advice on investing in equities, one would not have owned stocks since the early 1990's.

Methinks that would have put a bit of a dent in some of our early retirements.

Oh, but heres the fun part. He reads all the forums he's banned from, cuts and pastes comments like ours, and then rolls them up into quotes that he puts on his own web site and in the books he writes and self publishes that nobody buys.

So in a few days or weeks Ha, you'll be listed as a Rob Bennett supporter!
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Old 03-07-2008, 12:30 PM   #55
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I've become the semi-pro financial advisor at work for about a half a dozen people who are nearing retirement (2-5 years), semi-pro cuz I'm "semi-paid" . Over the last couple of years I've gotten them out of crappy variable annuities and overly risky investments with high fees and costs and into Vanguard funds - principally Wellesly and Wellington. The other day when a couple of them were concerned I was able to show them where they would have been compared to where they are and they felt a lot better. That bond and dividend aspect really helps smooth the bumps out and keep them calm, too. I've got another friend at work who despite wanting to retire in 5 years is still gambling on the high risk end of the market. I've got her to agree to meeting with me to change her allocation and put future contributions into less risky investments, and now I'm working to move her existing portfolio into a more conservative alignment. Problem is, with the huge drop recently, I don't want to "lock in" losses.
WOW! And based on your picture, you look so young!
Seriously though, if you aren't licensed, I hope you have lots and lots of insurance. People get awfully finicky about losing money, and it looks to me as if you are a lawsuit just waiting to happen. JMO.
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Old 03-07-2008, 12:32 PM   #56
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He advocated TIPS at ~4%, and I'd buy them at that price as well. That you cant get them at that price and probably never will again makes that advice a little bit irrelevant.
Sort of like the I-bonds I bought with a fixed 3.4% above CPI in 2000. Sure would be nice to take the cash I have now, turn back the clock eight years and load up on them...
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Old 03-07-2008, 12:44 PM   #57
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I'm guessing this will fall on deaf ears, but Allianz Vision is the perfect product for a sideways market. Of course, you'd need to decide that for yourself. (I guess I need to get one of those permanent disclaimers in my posts.)
So why the Vision over, say, the Target Accelerator? Guaranteed fixed interest plus the opportunity for indexed interest. You're covered in all areas then, sideways, up, or down.
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Old 03-07-2008, 01:39 PM   #58
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About as far as I go, as if anyone listens, is to recommend low-cost index funds...

Boring...
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Old 03-07-2008, 02:34 PM   #59
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So why the Vision over, say, the Target Accelerator? Guaranteed fixed interest plus the opportunity for indexed interest. You're covered in all areas then, sideways, up, or down.
Well, first off, because I've never heard of the target accelerator? What is it and how does it work?
I like Vision because
A) It has a quarterly reset.
B) It doesn't have to hit a high watermark to get a raise
C) Very liberal investment options
D) They don't take control and move you to money market
E) Automatic raises at age breaks

But in an up and down market, I believe (B) is going to be huge. JMO.
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Old 03-07-2008, 03:10 PM   #60
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Over the last couple of years I've gotten them out of crappy variable annuities and overly risky investments with high fees and costs and into Vanguard funds - principally Wellesly and Wellington.
I've slowly been working my mom's account into Wellesley and Wellington, too.

For people who don't need absolute capital preservation (like my mom since this IRA is "extra money" she doesn't need), right now a portfolio of 50% Wellesley and 50% Wellington has a higher yield (3.70%) than the Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (3.56%).

So if you can handle the volatility, you're basically getting the equity growth portion of the 50/50 mix "for free" and producing more income than the money market fund.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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