|
|
10-08-2008, 10:14 AM
|
#81
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
|
Wow, TIPS are getting murdered worse than stocks today. TIP (the ETF) is down 3.3%. Is the market changing its mind about inflation and instead fearing deflation now?
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
10-08-2008, 10:47 AM
|
#82
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Wow, TIPS are getting murdered worse than stocks today. TIP (the ETF) is down 3.3%. Is the market changing its mind about inflation and instead fearing deflation now?
|
for the last few weeks it's been the end of the world trade. oil down, gold up, t-bills yields way way down
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 11:23 AM
|
#83
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
|
You should know part of the cause Zig...oil is still dropping like a rock and it was a big piece of the inflation boost we've had over the past 3 quarters.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 11:27 AM
|
#84
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,007
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Wow, TIPS are getting murdered worse than stocks today. TIP (the ETF) is down 3.3%. Is the market changing its mind about inflation and instead fearing deflation now?
|
Ummm - yep! But it's also due to the "flight to quality" (i.e. US Treasuries) that happens when financial eruptions occur.
Audrey
P.S. Right! You should know by now that it's all your fault ziggy!
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 01:04 PM
|
#85
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,473
|
Poor Ziggy!!! What ever happened to the Law of Supply and Demand?
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 03:28 PM
|
#86
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
over the last year i've seen a chart that shows NYSE leverage going back to the late 1960's. 1973, 2000 and 2007 were the peaks in leverage and it took 2 years of a bear market to deleverage from the peaks.
|
What do you mean by NYSE leverage? Margin balances?
ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 04:19 PM
|
#87
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,007
|
Can we say that we are already 1 year into that bear market? 1/2 down, 1/2 to go?
Audrey
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 04:20 PM
|
#88
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
margin balances along with the leverage of the big banks, hedge funds, etc. total leverage
Safe Haven | NYSE Margin Debt Shows More Selling Ahead
there was a similar article earlier this year with a chart going back to the 1960s. you'll have to search for it
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 04:34 PM
|
#89
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Can we say that we are already 1 year into that bear market? 1/2 down, 1/2 to go?
Audrey
|
Sounds about right to me. 1550 to 1000 1 year.
If you think 800 is the bottom - we might get there quicker than 1 year - maybe by the end of the year - then slowly up from there?
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 04:37 PM
|
#90
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
Sounds about right to me. 1550 to 1000 1 year.
If you think 800 is the bottom - we might get there quicker than 1 year - maybe by the end of the year - then slowly up from there?
|
Hell, at the rate we're falling we'll be there next week.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 04:38 PM
|
#91
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,007
|
Sure doesn't seem like it would be hard to get to 800 from here the way things have been going lately. Sure has been looking to me like a V pattern.
Audrey
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 04:41 PM
|
#92
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
|
Ya know I might just watch a KC Chief's game to take my mind off all this.
Full auto RMD(equivalent) to Prime MM to local bank ATM. Plus full auto rebalancing/asset class adjustment with age in Target Retirement.
Hmmm - turn off the sound or close my eyes if it gets really bad.
heh heh heh - North of 3% SEC yield is livable but up is way more fun than down and RTM is never fast enough.
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 04:43 PM
|
#93
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
|
So far it looks like an "I" pattern.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 06:01 PM
|
#94
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Sure doesn't seem like it would be hard to get to 800 from here the way things have been going lately. Sure has been looking to me like a V pattern.
Audrey
|
I'm ready for the right side of the V to develop.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
|
|
|
10-08-2008, 06:44 PM
|
#95
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,894
|
Wow, did anybody look at Vanguard funds' YTD returns as of tonight? It is ugly... I am not going to post them here in case some of you guys would rather not know...
|
|
|
10-09-2008, 02:30 AM
|
#96
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
|
I'm down just over 23% YTD and that's starting with 40% fixed/cash. Barf.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
|
|
|
10-09-2008, 02:36 AM
|
#97
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
|
Where is the bottom? 40% off the S&P or DOW, or are we looking at 50%?
|
|
|
10-09-2008, 04:22 AM
|
#98
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
|
GD-I was about 90% so we have a long way to go.
Cramer says to sell into any rally, raise cash and be ready to get in when prices recover.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
|
|
|
10-09-2008, 07:42 AM
|
#99
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
|
And I'm sure he's going to tell us just before that happens.
At least four or five times.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
10-09-2008, 08:05 AM
|
#100
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,473
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco
Where is the bottom? 40% off the S&P or DOW, or are we looking at 50%?
|
Let me check my crystal ball on that one.... Oh, drat, it's not working today!! Guess I don't have the answer.
I am still hanging on for the rest of this roller coaster ride, and my knuckles are beginning to get a little white. With my ultra-conservative AA I really didn't expect to be losing six figures in less than a month like this.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|