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Old 10-08-2008, 11:14 AM   #81
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Wow, TIPS are getting murdered worse than stocks today. TIP (the ETF) is down 3.3%. Is the market changing its mind about inflation and instead fearing deflation now?
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Old 10-08-2008, 11:47 AM   #82
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Wow, TIPS are getting murdered worse than stocks today. TIP (the ETF) is down 3.3%. Is the market changing its mind about inflation and instead fearing deflation now?
for the last few weeks it's been the end of the world trade. oil down, gold up, t-bills yields way way down
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Old 10-08-2008, 12:23 PM   #83
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You should know part of the cause Zig...oil is still dropping like a rock and it was a big piece of the inflation boost we've had over the past 3 quarters.
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Old 10-08-2008, 12:27 PM   #84
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Wow, TIPS are getting murdered worse than stocks today. TIP (the ETF) is down 3.3%. Is the market changing its mind about inflation and instead fearing deflation now?
Ummm - yep! But it's also due to the "flight to quality" (i.e. US Treasuries) that happens when financial eruptions occur.

Audrey

P.S. Right! You should know by now that it's all your fault ziggy!
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Old 10-08-2008, 02:04 PM   #85
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You should know part of the cause Zig...oil is still dropping like a rock and it was a big piece of the inflation boost we've had over the past 3 quarters.
Poor Ziggy!!! What ever happened to the Law of Supply and Demand?
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Old 10-08-2008, 04:28 PM   #86
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over the last year i've seen a chart that shows NYSE leverage going back to the late 1960's. 1973, 2000 and 2007 were the peaks in leverage and it took 2 years of a bear market to deleverage from the peaks.
What do you mean by NYSE leverage? Margin balances?

ha
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Old 10-08-2008, 05:19 PM   #87
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Can we say that we are already 1 year into that bear market? 1/2 down, 1/2 to go?

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Old 10-08-2008, 05:20 PM   #88
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margin balances along with the leverage of the big banks, hedge funds, etc. total leverage

Safe Haven | NYSE Margin Debt Shows More Selling Ahead

there was a similar article earlier this year with a chart going back to the 1960s. you'll have to search for it
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Old 10-08-2008, 05:34 PM   #89
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Can we say that we are already 1 year into that bear market? 1/2 down, 1/2 to go?
Audrey
Sounds about right to me. 1550 to 1000 1 year.

If you think 800 is the bottom - we might get there quicker than 1 year - maybe by the end of the year - then slowly up from there?
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Old 10-08-2008, 05:37 PM   #90
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Sounds about right to me. 1550 to 1000 1 year.

If you think 800 is the bottom - we might get there quicker than 1 year - maybe by the end of the year - then slowly up from there?
Hell, at the rate we're falling we'll be there next week.
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Old 10-08-2008, 05:38 PM   #91
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Sure doesn't seem like it would be hard to get to 800 from here the way things have been going lately. Sure has been looking to me like a V pattern.

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Old 10-08-2008, 05:41 PM   #92
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Ya know I might just watch a KC Chief's game to take my mind off all this.



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Hmmm - turn off the sound or close my eyes if it gets really bad.

heh heh heh - North of 3% SEC yield is livable but up is way more fun than down and RTM is never fast enough.
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Old 10-08-2008, 05:43 PM   #93
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So far it looks like an "I" pattern.
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Old 10-08-2008, 07:01 PM   #94
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Sure doesn't seem like it would be hard to get to 800 from here the way things have been going lately. Sure has been looking to me like a V pattern.

Audrey
I'm ready for the right side of the V to develop.
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Old 10-08-2008, 07:44 PM   #95
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Wow, did anybody look at Vanguard funds' YTD returns as of tonight? It is ugly... I am not going to post them here in case some of you guys would rather not know...
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Old 10-09-2008, 03:30 AM   #96
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I'm down just over 23% YTD and that's starting with 40% fixed/cash. Barf.
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Old 10-09-2008, 03:36 AM   #97
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Where is the bottom? 40% off the S&P or DOW, or are we looking at 50%?
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Old 10-09-2008, 05:22 AM   #98
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GD-I was about 90% so we have a long way to go.

Cramer says to sell into any rally, raise cash and be ready to get in when prices recover.
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Old 10-09-2008, 08:42 AM   #99
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And I'm sure he's going to tell us just before that happens.

At least four or five times.
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Old 10-09-2008, 09:05 AM   #100
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Where is the bottom? 40% off the S&P or DOW, or are we looking at 50%?
Let me check my crystal ball on that one.... Oh, drat, it's not working today!! Guess I don't have the answer.

I am still hanging on for the rest of this roller coaster ride, and my knuckles are beginning to get a little white. With my ultra-conservative AA I really didn't expect to be losing six figures in less than a month like this.
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