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Old 10-09-2008, 09:10 AM   #101
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Wow, did anybody look at Vanguard funds' YTD returns as of tonight? It is ugly... I am not going to post them here in case some of you guys would rather not know...
Made me look! j/k
i had adopted a policy of only checking once a week. so far i have violated that promise to myself at least 2x this week. i record the lowest portfolio value in the M* portfolio tracker using a cash entry of $1, and enter the date and port value as the description. um...it's been updated way too many times recently. Argh!
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Old 10-09-2008, 09:24 AM   #102
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Let me check my crystal ball on that one.... Oh, drat, it's not working today!! Guess I don't have the answer.

I am still hanging on for the rest of this roller coaster ride, and my knuckles are beginning to get a little white. With my ultra-conservative AA I really didn't expect to be losing six figures in less than a month like this.
I've stopped telling DW how much we drop. I'm certainly not planning on telling her the grand total. She totally ignores all the investment stuff but the last 2 months would probably really get her attention.

I've lost six figures just this week.
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Old 10-09-2008, 09:34 AM   #103
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I concentrate of the 4% rule. If my portfolio is down $100,000 then I have $4,000 less to spend. The lower number is not a scary.
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Old 10-09-2008, 09:41 AM   #104
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I concentrate of the 4% rule. If my portfolio is down $100,000 then I have $4,000 less to spend. The lower number is not a scary.
That's probably the best way to look at it. I will not retire until next year (waiting for health benefits), but I put yesterday's numbers into Firecalc and asked it for the maximum I could spend with 100% success. It gave me a figure that was several times more than I need for subsistence, so that helped me to feel a little more secure. It is still hard to stomach drops like this.
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Old 10-09-2008, 10:22 AM   #105
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That's probably the best way to look at it. I will not retire until next year (waiting for health benefits), but I put yesterday's numbers into Firecalc and asked it for the maximum I could spend with 100% success. It gave me a figure that was several times more than I need for subsistence, so that helped me to feel a little more secure. It is still hard to stomach drops like this.
Should be easier after 15 yrs of ER and thru several Bears since 1966 - but I get the 'Blahs' and just don't feel like buying top of the line - lined Carhart Men's Overalls from Tractor Supply - even through still within budget.

But the sun is shining and the birds are singing.

heh heh heh - between the Saint's in the cellar and a gloomy Market - may, I say may have to find a new hobby this winter. .
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Old 10-09-2008, 11:25 AM   #106
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Should be easier after 15 yrs of ER and thru several Bears since 1966 - but I get the 'Blahs' and just don't feel like buying top of the line - lined Carhart Men's Overalls from Tractor Supply - even through still within budget.
Maybe they will go on sale sometime soon? With money so tight, I'd think that maybe we will be seeing some good discounts eventually. I really hope so since nobody can afford much these days.

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But the sun is shining and the birds are singing.

heh heh heh - between the Saint's in the cellar and a gloomy Market - may, I say may have to find a new hobby this winter. .
That's so true. The market is the only thing worse than the Saints this year! You mentioned birds singing - - when I retire, I might get some cheap binoculars and begin birdwatching as a hobby. Sure would beat sitting in a cubicle. Lots of exercise and fresh air, and could be a lot of fun to learn to identify the little fellas.
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Old 10-09-2008, 01:30 PM   #107
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I was amazed that the Saints managed to lose to my Vikings.

Your team is so much better than mine, but that night they just couldn't get it together.

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Should be easier after 15 yrs of ER and thru several Bears since 1966 - but I get the 'Blahs' and just don't feel like buying top of the line - lined Carhart Men's Overalls from Tractor Supply - even through still within budget.

But the sun is shining and the birds are singing.

heh heh heh - between the Saint's in the cellar and a gloomy Market - may, I say may have to find a new hobby this winter. .
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:34 PM   #108
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Dow in the 8800's today. I'd say the market is as bad as it seems.
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:39 PM   #109
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I think the market is worse than it seems!!

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Old 10-09-2008, 02:42 PM   #110
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500 points and counting.
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:46 PM   #111
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500 points and counting.
I guess -630 counts as "500 and counting."
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:48 PM   #112
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The S&P is down 75 points - over 7.5%. This is just endless. We're discounting the total collapse of the country.

I will say the boom in the E&C business is definitely over. Layoffs in some of our competitors has been announced. Apparently, the first to feel the ax got it yesterday. More today and Friday according to "well placed sources." So far, my firm isn't among them but it's only a question of time IMHO.

I'd rather not be thrown out onto the street right after losing $500 thou. (or more ).
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Old 10-09-2008, 02:59 PM   #113
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So how much are we down this week so far?

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Old 10-09-2008, 02:59 PM   #114
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The VIX just hit an all-time high. This, my friends, is out and out panic.

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So how much are we down this week so far?
I'd tell you, but then I'd have to reach for the bottle.
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Old 10-09-2008, 03:00 PM   #115
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the perma-bears will be absolutely insufferable!
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Old 10-09-2008, 03:05 PM   #116
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Dow in the 8800's today. I'd say the market is as bad as it seems.
Sorry, I should've waited 20 minutes, now the dow is in the 8500's.
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Old 10-09-2008, 03:20 PM   #117
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So it looks like the s&p at 800 is in the cross hairs.
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Old 10-09-2008, 03:26 PM   #118
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The VIX just hit an all-time high. This, my friends, is out and out panic.


I'd tell you, but then I'd have to reach for the bottle.
it's an all time high since 1990 where our calculations go to. maybe next week i'll dump the Dow prices from Yahoo into a spreadsheet and then into a database and then write a query to calculate it back in 1929 - 1932.
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Old 10-09-2008, 03:36 PM   #119
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I'd tell you, but then I'd have to reach for the bottle.
Just be sure it's a bottle of booze and not pills.

It takes a long time to kill a liver with booze.

Ha
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Old 10-09-2008, 04:01 PM   #120
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The VIX just hit an all-time high. This, my friends, is out and out panic.


I'd tell you, but then I'd have to reach for the bottle.
I thought a VIX of 28 represented the market bottom? Oh wait. This is another can't miss technical indicator that does. I think the VIX is a good measure of panic but not of when the market will turn. It is logical to assume that the market bottom will occur when the cyclical level of panic peaks. We just don't know when.
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