The market that goes from suck to blow... - Page 3

haha · 03-24-2005, 02:39 PM

Quote:

This stuff is easy. I've got so many people around me coming down with cancer lately, that they wish they had this stuff to worry about.

Well said, C-T. Best wishes to you-

Mikey

yakers · 03-24-2005, 02:40 PM

Mikey,

Funny you should mention UST. I Openned a DRIP about three years ago, missed the big yield but it has been an excellent stock for a DRIP program. I add $100 a month and it just keeps growing. The DRIP approach suits me as it is low fee and is based on a monthly contribution which is how I get paid, I don't have a bundle of money to invest (win or lose) at one time. So I just look for a good company with a good dividend history. If there is a major market downturn I think this will still be my investing approach and, overall, a good approach for a lot of people.

ak4195 · 03-24-2005, 05:57 PM

I dont think its really the interest of the board,and am not sure it should be,my intention wasnt to slap you or anybody else in the face.But i assume soupx is a young man wondering why all his non correlary assets just took a big dump.Sy Harding runs a pay websight/service,with lots of tables and historic figures to back up his work.He has basically taken yale Hirsches work and modernized it.Yale Hirsch wrote "TRaders Almanac" for decades,i believe his son has stepped in after his death.Sy's service is cheaper but not as invormative as yales,personally i dont like his stock picking,just his seasonal work.Its very effective.I no longer subscribe to it ,prefering to rely on my own chart work,but this simple premis is worth the look imo.Just trying to sooth the pain and expand the horizons of a young investor.SY doesnt catch the exact bottoms/tops,but you definitely get the meat and potatoes of the seasonal run,and miss many of the rough patches by being out of the market.As i said,you could test drive the idea with just a % of funds.Personally rather than buy a whole year,just start in sept,perhaps first of october till spring,since the rest of the year is contrarian in general.Anyways heres the link http://www.streetsmartreport.com/index.html

cute fuzzy bunny · 03-24-2005, 10:58 PM

Quote:

wondering why all his non correlary assets just took a big dump.

I have about the most diverse portfolio around, and everything I own took it in the face this week.

What asset class do you see that put up numbers or held ground this week?

Energy? Down. Value? Down. Growth? Down. Indexes? Down. REITs? Down. Commodities? Down. Bonds of any description? Down. Small caps? Down. Emerging Markets? Down. Healthcare? Down.

Nords · 03-24-2005, 11:13 PM

Quote:

My husband reads John Mauldin. *Who is this guy?

Maudlin Mauldin runs investments and writes a newsletter. After reading him for a year, my opinion is that he's a long-winded economist who manages to find "guest speakers" to write most of his columns-- or to at least volunteer extensive quotes. Then wraps it up with a couple paragraphs where he whines ad infinitum about how hard it is to write a book, how he never finds time anymore to read & think, and how much fun he's having with his family (instead of writing a book).

But when he's writing his own stuff, he uses the phrase "muddle through" to describe his philosophy of a sideways market for the next 5-10 years.

That last paragraph should save you from having to read any of his columns. I slogged through with this guy until his theme song repeated, and then I decided life was too short to waste any more time on him.

Quote:

Energy? Down. Value? Down. Growth? Down. Indexes? Down. REITs? Down. Commodities? Down. Bonds of any description? Down. Small caps? Down. Emerging Markets? Down. Healthcare? Down.

Some of my shorts have been waiting for months for a market like this!

I'm much happier reading the writing on this wall of worry than I am hearing about hopping into the next bull market. Are we talking a market decline of 30-40%? Bring it on...

MRGALT2U · 03-25-2005, 03:21 AM

My shorts "have been waiting for months" also.

JG

brewer12345 · 03-25-2005, 07:08 AM

Jeez, what a lot of whining! The market has a bad week and you'd think it was 1929/2002 again. Are you guys really investors? Last I checked, you needed a little stomach for up and down if you were an investor. If you guys are this upset over a few weeks of sliding, what were you like in 2001/2002/2003?

One last observation on the whole thing:

We talk a lot about assembling a diversified portfolio and investing in multiple low correlation asset classes. I think this is prudent and it definately results in better risk-adjusted performance over time. However, its not always a silver bullet. Just by sheer chance, sometimes things will move together een in a low correlation port. Also, when the sh!t really hits the fan and large negative moves come out of the woodwork, correlations tend to increase. These are facts of life, folks. Just remember that over the long term the up days outnumber the down days, and all you have to do is be firm of purpose and stick to your knitting. This isn't something that requires smarts; it just requires testicular fortitude.

**Martha** · 03-25-2005, 07:23 AM

What I want is for the market to go down in one fell swoop and get it over with. I am tired of hearing DH tell me it's going to happen and it is going to be bad. We have a bunch of cash. It's time. Let's get it over with. Then I might know whether I have to keep working. End of rant.

laurence · 03-25-2005, 07:46 AM

LOL Brewer, reminds me of full metal jacket:

Searge: "WHERE YOU FROM, MAGGOT?!?"

Recruit: "SIR, TEXAS SIR!"

Searge: "TEXAS, HOLY SH** ONLY STEERS AND QUEERS COME FROM TEXAS AND I DON'T SEE ANY HORNS COMING OUT OF YOUR HEAD, SO THAT JUST ABOUT NARROWS IT DOWN!"

I'm not smart enough to time the correction, just DCAing, but I can afford to be "dumb" since I'm so far from my end game....

preben · 03-25-2005, 10:02 AM

He,he - thought that was An Officer And a Gentleman? Maybe in both?
Anyway; a well diversified portfolio would actually still be doing OK, despite the admittedly weird "all together now" weeks we just had.
Commodities (PCRIX) up 8% ytd, VGPMX(metals) up 4% ytd,, VTRIX foreign value up 1% ytd, XLE energy stocks up 16% Etc.
I think I am am up about 2-3% ytd. Cheers!

cute fuzzy bunny · 03-25-2005, 12:46 PM

Salesman gets called into his bosses office. She tells him that he's being given Canada as a new territory. He exclaims "Canada! Only whores and hockey players live in Canada!". His boss glares at him and says "*I'm* from Canada!".

To which he quickly responds "So what team did you play for?".

Before our canadian friends lynch me, I'll repeat again...I'm half Canadian!

searcher · 03-25-2005, 02:09 PM

Seems like things might be improving for fixed income. If the fed raises rates, keeps inflation in check and you are dept free. I am dropping the bonds fo a while. If oil drops could a stock rally be far off ?

cute fuzzy bunny · 03-25-2005, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Upper OR lower half??

The beer half.

Spanky · 03-25-2005, 05:56 PM

Hopefully next week will be better. I am putting my cash into CD and I-Bonds.

uncledrz · 03-26-2005, 02:41 AM

Quote:

Same with a big bear. *** You aren't near as horny as you used to be.

I've been through two major bear markets, one small one, and the sharp drop of 1987. I can tell you Mikey that it just ain't so!

MRGALT2U · 03-26-2005, 03:24 AM

And another advantage of "no stocks". Most days
I don't even notice what "the market" is doing. Don't
care much either.

JG

preben · 03-26-2005, 06:21 AM

I agree that it is a bit silly to complain about a couple of weeks of flat/down trending returns.

Meanwhile these boards are a good place to vent a bit of ones thoughts/fears thereby ensuring one might get stopped from doing something silly, or maybe do a part switch to a portfolio with less volatility or other.

Cheers!

Bookm · 03-26-2005, 11:04 AM

Hi ben, kinda my thoughts too. I'm not going to come running in here flailing my arms about screaming the sky is falling. I didn't take this thread in that way. OTOH, I see many here making a discussion of Mr. Market's mad moves. Something to talk about, and to possibly hear reasoned opinions on the matter, that's all.

Bookm

preben · 03-27-2005, 01:22 AM

Wise words bookm, wise words!

unclemick · 03-27-2005, 04:14 AM

Do a search for Fiend's Superbear Page and poke around the website.

The sky is always falling - you can count the ways.

A lot of fun - but don't read it if you are prone to worry a lot.

03-24-2005, 02:40 PM	#42
yakers Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 1,611	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... Mikey, Funny you should mention UST. I Openned a DRIP about three years ago, missed the big yield but it has been an excellent stock for a DRIP program. I add $100 a month and it just keeps growing. The DRIP approach suits me as it is low fee and is based on a monthly contribution which is how I get paid, I don't have a bundle of money to invest (win or lose) at one time. So I just look for a good company with a good dividend history. If there is a major market downturn I think this will still be my investing approach and, overall, a good approach for a lot of people. __________________ A slave is someone who waits for someone else to free them

03-24-2005, 05:57 PM	#43
ak4195 Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 75	Re: Big Money Jim I dont think its really the interest of the board,and am not sure it should be,my intention wasnt to slap you or anybody else in the face.But i assume soupx is a young man wondering why all his non correlary assets just took a big dump.Sy Harding runs a pay websight/service,with lots of tables and historic figures to back up his work.He has basically taken yale Hirsches work and modernized it.Yale Hirsch wrote "TRaders Almanac" for decades,i believe his son has stepped in after his death.Sy's service is cheaper but not as invormative as yales,personally i dont like his stock picking,just his seasonal work.Its very effective.I no longer subscribe to it ,prefering to rely on my own chart work,but this simple premis is worth the look imo.Just trying to sooth the pain and expand the horizons of a young investor.SY doesnt catch the exact bottoms/tops,but you definitely get the meat and potatoes of the seasonal run,and miss many of the rough patches by being out of the market.As i said,you could test drive the idea with just a % of funds.Personally rather than buy a whole year,just start in sept,perhaps first of october till spring,since the rest of the year is contrarian in general.Anyways heres the link http://www.streetsmartreport.com/index.html __________________ real men dont use dryer sheets

03-25-2005, 03:21 AM	#46
MRGALT2U Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 3,877	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... My shorts "have been waiting for months" also. JG

03-25-2005, 07:08 AM	#47
brewer12345 Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,248	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... Jeez, what a lot of whining! The market has a bad week and you'd think it was 1929/2002 again. Are you guys really investors? Last I checked, you needed a little stomach for up and down if you were an investor. If you guys are this upset over a few weeks of sliding, what were you like in 2001/2002/2003? One last observation on the whole thing: We talk a lot about assembling a diversified portfolio and investing in multiple low correlation asset classes. I think this is prudent and it definately results in better risk-adjusted performance over time. However, its not always a silver bullet. Just by sheer chance, sometimes things will move together een in a low correlation port. Also, when the sh!t really hits the fan and large negative moves come out of the woodwork, correlations tend to increase. These are facts of life, folks. Just remember that over the long term the up days outnumber the down days, and all you have to do is be firm of purpose and stick to your knitting. This isn't something that requires smarts; it just requires testicular fortitude. __________________ “When you realize that you are one of the rare few who observe moral principles in their relationships with others, there is a temptation to sink into amorality, not out of conviction or pleasure but simply to avoid further pain, because there is no greater suffering than being an angel in hell, whereas a devil feels at home wherever he goes.” – Martin Page, How I Became Stupid

03-25-2005, 07:23 AM	#48
Martha Administrator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: minnesota Posts: 9,848	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... What I want is for the market to go down in one fell swoop and get it over with. I am tired of hearing DH tell me it's going to happen and it is going to be bad. We have a bunch of cash. It's time. Let's get it over with. Then I might know whether I have to keep working. End of rant. __________________ . Do not rely on the information provided--my posts are not to be taken as legal advice. Needless to say you must consult with your legal representative. I am not responsible for errors. If I offended you with cya I apologize. If I did not, I tried.

03-25-2005, 07:46 AM	#49
laurence Moderator Emeritus Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: San Diego Posts: 4,787	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... LOL Brewer, reminds me of full metal jacket: Searge: "WHERE YOU FROM, MAGGOT?!?" Recruit: "SIR, TEXAS SIR!" Searge: "TEXAS, HOLY SH** ONLY STEERS AND QUEERS COME FROM TEXAS AND I DON'T SEE ANY HORNS COMING OUT OF YOUR HEAD, SO THAT JUST ABOUT NARROWS IT DOWN!" I'm not smart enough to time the correction, just DCAing, but I can afford to be "dumb" since I'm so far from my end game....

03-25-2005, 10:02 AM	#50
preben Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 420	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... He,he - thought that was An Officer And a Gentleman? Maybe in both? Anyway; a well diversified portfolio would actually still be doing OK, despite the admittedly weird "all together now" weeks we just had. Commodities (PCRIX) up 8% ytd, VGPMX(metals) up 4% ytd,, VTRIX foreign value up 1% ytd, XLE energy stocks up 16% Etc. I think I am am up about 2-3% ytd. Cheers!

03-25-2005, 12:46 PM	#51
cute fuzzy bunny Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Losing my whump Posts: 22,527	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... Salesman gets called into his bosses office. She tells him that he's being given Canada as a new territory. He exclaims "Canada! Only whores and hockey players live in Canada!". His boss glares at him and says "I'm from Canada!". To which he quickly responds "So what team did you play for?". Before our canadian friends lynch me, I'll repeat again...I'm half Canadian! __________________ Many an optimist has become rich by buying out a pessimist

03-25-2005, 02:09 PM	#52
searcher Dryer sheet wannabe Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 10	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... Seems like things might be improving for fixed income. If the fed raises rates, keeps inflation in check and you are dept free. I am dropping the bonds fo a while. If oil drops could a stock rally be far off ?

03-25-2005, 05:56 PM	#54
Spanky Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 2,784	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... Hopefully next week will be better. I am putting my cash into CD and I-Bonds. __________________ May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.

03-26-2005, 03:24 AM	#56
MRGALT2U Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 3,877	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... And another advantage of "no stocks". Most days I don't even notice what "the market" is doing. Don't care much either. JG

03-26-2005, 06:21 AM	#57
preben Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 420	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... I agree that it is a bit silly to complain about a couple of weeks of flat/down trending returns. Meanwhile these boards are a good place to vent a bit of ones thoughts/fears thereby ensuring one might get stopped from doing something silly, or maybe do a part switch to a portfolio with less volatility or other. Cheers!

03-26-2005, 11:04 AM	#58
Bookm Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 79	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... Hi ben, kinda my thoughts too. I'm not going to come running in here flailing my arms about screaming the sky is falling. I didn't take this thread in that way. OTOH, I see many here making a discussion of Mr. Market's mad moves. Something to talk about, and to possibly hear reasoned opinions on the matter, that's all. Bookm

03-27-2005, 01:22 AM	#59
preben Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 420	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... Wise words bookm, wise words!

03-27-2005, 04:14 AM	#60
unclemick Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: north of Kansas City Posts: 5,553	Re: The market that goes from suck to blow... Do a search for Fiend's Superbear Page and poke around the website. The sky is always falling - you can count the ways. A lot of fun - but don't read it if you are prone to worry a lot.