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The next boom
Old 12-21-2005, 01:28 PM   #1
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The next boom

According to the media the real estate boom is showing signs of slowing. Now I haven't been around all that long to know first hand about booms and bust. Just looking at the last stock boom and bust it seems that money was moved from stocks to real estate. Now that real estate is cooling (might bust eventually) I wonder were the money would move to next...back to stocks?
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Re: The next boom
Old 12-21-2005, 01:42 PM   #2
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Re: The next boom

Maybe, but I would lay money on it being commodities next. Its something the man in the street can understand and the media has been banging the drum already.
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Re: The next boom
Old 12-21-2005, 02:03 PM   #3
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Re: The next boom

Pork bellies and Orange Juice futures.

Stem cell, nanotechnology, and biologics dot coms, and entertainment products. Nothing like a down stock market, down RE market and a flat bond market to make you want to find a way to forget your troubles.
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Re: The next boom
Old 12-21-2005, 02:27 PM   #4
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Re: The next boom

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Maybe, but I would lay money on it being commodities next.* Its something the man in the street can understand and the media has been banging the drum already.
brew, don't you think commodities have already had the big part of their run up? Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining fund is up an ave. of 32% per year for the past 5 years. Will it last another 5 years? Who knows? If anyone finds out what the next big thing is, let all of us know.
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Re: The next boom
Old 12-21-2005, 02:35 PM   #5
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Re: The next boom

From a novice stand point seems like these booms last for 5-10 years. So if your a year or two late there should be plenty left before the tide turns. For instance you could have missed the first few years of run up in stocks and still been ok if you sold before the market tanked. The stock bust didn't happen over night though. I think when you hear experts start using new matrices to justify the run up THEN it is time to get out.
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Re: The next boom
Old 12-21-2005, 02:39 PM   #6
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Re: The next boom

Emerging markets continue to look good as do selected asia /pacific funds.
Energy should continue to be solid, but you need an element of market timing to really do well here.
As I recall, the 10 sectors that do the best in a given year are odds on favorites to lead the next year.* Be sure to buy all 10
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Re: The next boom
Old 12-21-2005, 04:33 PM   #7
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Re: The next boom

I might be the black sheep on the thread but I don't think most people have money from real estate gains. I think most people were gasping for air in a sea of debt and the gains from the house provided a temporary lifeline. We won't see any booms from real estate gains in my book. Equities will continue to be driven by fundamentals.
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Re: The next boom
Old 12-21-2005, 05:46 PM   #8
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Re: The next boom

Quote:
Originally Posted by wildcat
I might be the black sheep on the thread but I don't think most people have money from real estate gains.* I think most people were gasping for air in a sea of debt and the gains from the house provided a temporary lifeline.* We won't see any booms from real estate gains in my book.* Equities will continue to be driven by fundamentals.
Yup. Haven't heard of anyone doing a cash out refi to stick money into another investment. Most everyone spent the money in some shape or fashion. Besides, that money has already found its way into the economy. If the housing market does deflate it doesn't mean all the paper net worth is going somewhere else. For example, if I think my house is worth $400K today but in six months I can only sell it for $300K, that $100 loss didn't go into other investments - it's just gone.
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