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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-12-2006, 11:56 AM   #61
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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Originally Posted by brewer12345
Ha, were you joking or not?* Sometimes hard to tell around here.
No, not joking. I have all the QQQQ puts I want to own, and was looking for something else that might show strong downward momentum in the right circumstances. Morgan seems to fit the bill.

Ha
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-12-2006, 12:00 PM   #62
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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Originally Posted by HaHa
No, not joking. I have all the QQQQ puts I want to own, and was looking for something else that might show strong downward momentum in the right circumstances. Morgan seems to fit the bill.

Ha
I think JPMC, Bear Sterns and Goldman would probably best fit the bill. They have the largest exposure to hedge funds, the biggest credit default swap operations (woo-boy, the stories I could tell you about how loosely those desks are run), and all three have ramped up their proprietary trading positions (where they put their own capital at risk instead of just being middlemen). Pick puts that are far enough out of the money so that you pay a pittance.
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-12-2006, 03:35 PM   #63
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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Originally Posted by Cute 'n Fuzzy Bunny
So how much did it cost and did you still act "surprised"?
Three hundred dollars! Wait!
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-12-2006, 06:40 PM   #64
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Re: The Next Depression ?

Unfortunately I dont know if you got a good deal or not.
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-12-2006, 07:27 PM   #65
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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You know, my last business trip to Hawaii, the host took me out drinking at a Martini bar near the office, then on our walk back to the office to pick up our cars, she turns to me and says, "hey did you know this street is where all the transvestite hookers ply their trade?" I was shocked, Honolulu just seems like too small a town to support such a specialized community. Evidently many guys don't know they are a John to a "John" (vice "Jane") when they pick up their dates. Just a friendly warning to any of you single guys/sailors who visit that lovely state.
Not a very useful tip warning without the name of the street...
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-12-2006, 08:10 PM   #66
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Re: The Next Depression ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
I think JPMC, Bear Sterns and Goldman* would probably best fit the bill.* They have the largest exposure to hedge funds, the biggest credit default swap operations (woo-boy, the stories I could tell you about how loosely those desks are run), and all three have ramped up their proprietary trading positions (where they put their own capital at risk instead of just being middlemen).* Pick puts that are far enough out of the money so that you pay a pittance.
JPM looks like the Full Meal Deal. The only negative is the $1.36 dividend. The others you mentioned have very low open interest, and the puts seems to be relatively high priced. If we get an up day tomorrow I'll go shopping. At $30, JPM, would yield 4.5%, but that is at the high end of current, non-stressed bank yields. By late fall, it may not be outrageous at all.. Nothing to bet the farm on, but still might be good value.

Ha
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 06:05 AM   #67
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Re: The Next Depression ?

All your "crisis factors" are true today - and should not be ignored.* *However, the last 100 years has had many times also where a pile of crisis points also applied (wars, gas crisis, inflation, etc).

I do thiink it is best to stay heavy in equities, but also gradually diversify heavily globally, and diversify across asset classes, and capitalization.

Hundai just announced last night plans to build a car plant in USA - the reason for doing this is not to build higher quality cars, not to lower costs, rather to diversify their production assets* - especially as the Korean currency appreciates against the dollar.

As a kid, I used to ice skate on ponds - when the ice got thin, your best safety precaution was to drop to you hands and knees and "spread out and not panic"


That's what* I'm doing now...........
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 06:45 AM   #68
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Re: The Next Depression ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
JPM looks like the Full Meal Deal. The only negative is the $1.36 dividend. The others you mentioned have very low open interest, and the puts seems to be relatively high priced. If we get an up day tomorrow I'll go shopping. At $30, JPM, would yield 4.5%, but that is at the high end of current, non-stressed bank yields. By late fall, it may not be outrageous at all.. Nothing to bet the farm on, but still might be good value.

Ha
Maybe, but I am not a particular fan of large bank equities. Practically speaking there is no conceivable way to figure out what is going on wihin the business or what level of risk they have assumed. No thanks. There are much more attractive opportunities in smaller banks and thrifts, plus you occasionally et a pop from M&A.
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 07:25 AM   #69
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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Originally Posted by Delawaredave


As a kid, I used to ice skate on ponds - when the ice got thin, your best safety precaution was to drop to you hands and knees and "spread out and not panic"[/b]

That's what I'm doing now...........
Thanks, Delawaredave, for the image I can understand. I can some days wish I had the kind of brain that could still crunch numbers -- or care to -- or look at spreadsheets or graphs -- or care to. Ice skating on ponds and the safety advice -- I get it!


NewYorkKate
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 11:03 AM   #70
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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Originally Posted by bpp
Not a very useful tip warning without the name of the street...
Well, I can understand Laurence being reluctant to give away his favorite hunting grounds, but I'll trade you for Rappongi streets.

Start in "west" Waikiki at the intersection of Kalakaua & Kuhio. Stroll north along the little side streets (pick any one!) toward the Ala Wai Canal. When you reach Ala Wai Boulevard, turn east and then go south at the next block (across Kuhio) until you reach Kalakaua again. Turn east again, go north at the next block back to the Ala Wai, turn east again, and go south again. Keep mowing the lawn, so to speak, until you run out of Waikiki at Kapahulu (by the zoo). Before you encounter their animals I'm sure you'll attract some sort of attention.

Or you could just stroll slowly along Ke'eamoku Street.

I'm not trying to imply that these streets are filled with prostitutes or that you should avoid them. They're quite safe (I'm still talking about the streets!). There are also bars, stores, hotels, vacation condos, touts, street performers, lots of visitors, and undercover cops. It's just a little difficult to read the nametags or figure out the occupations unless you're taking this stroll at 2 AM... It ain't Main Street at Disneyland but it's not like NYC's 42nd Street used to be.
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 11:10 AM   #71
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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Originally Posted by Nords
There are also bars, stores, hotels, vacation condos, touts, street performers, lots of visitors, and undercover cops.
I see you have your excuses already laid out..
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 12:49 PM   #72
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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Originally Posted by brewer12345
Maybe, but I am not a particular fan of large bank equities.* Practically speaking there is no conceivable way to figure out what is going on wihin the business or what level of risk they have assumed.* No thanks.* There are much more attractive opportunities in smaller banks and thrifts, plus you occasionally et a pop from M&A.
Brewer, you are forgetting that we are discussing puts.

Ha
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 12:59 PM   #73
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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Originally Posted by HaHa
Brewer, you are forgetting that we are discussing puts.

Ha
Hmm, I thought so, but then you started talking about value in relation to JPMC. You meant that the puts are a good value? That would square with what you said. Didja buy some?
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 02:49 PM   #74
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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Originally Posted by brewer12345
Hmm, I thought so, but then you started talking about value in relation to JPMC.* You meant that the puts are a good value?* That would square with what you said.* Didja buy some?
After looking at the price and the low volume/poor liquidity in the Jan07 JPM puts, I decided to stick to QQQQ puts as my bear play. Bought some Jan07 37s. I want to be able to hold into Q4-2006. If the QQQQ reaches 37, my collection of various puts should increase >= $10,000 per 1 point drop on the QQQQ.* I have some at the money, some slightly out, and some pretty far out of the money. These low strikes are long term, so if the QQQQ starts down in earnest it will be worth having them. I guess if volatility picks up, I should gain delta on these quicker than I would otherwise expect. If we get down to 34, I am making $25,000 per point on the QQQQ. The QQQ (forerunner of QQQQ) came kissing close to 20 in the fall of 2002,where it halted its long descent from 110 or so during the late great mania. It then turned around. and made it 37 or so by Christmas 2003. Since then it has only managed to add 3 or 4 points, depending on what day you look.

My money says this is one tired dog, and this is the infamous Year 2 of the US Presidential election cycle.

Anyway, if it works for me, I can buy a nice Seattle condo and get the hell off the farm. If it doesn't, turnips anyone?*

Ha

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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 03:01 PM   #75
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Re: The Next Depression ?

Gotcha. For the moment I am not hedging. I think the time will come this summer, looking for fallout this winter or early next year. Its cheaper if I wait. In the meantime, I have jettisoned most of my highly economically sensitive stuff and added exposure to stuff that doesn't particularly depend on the broader economy.
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 03:38 PM   #76
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Re: The Next Depression ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
Anyway, if it works for me, I can buy a nice Seattle condo and get the hell off the farm. If it doesn't, turnips anyone?
That's funny Ha - I'm looking to get out of the city and onto the farm - although methinks I will have to avoid turnips ...

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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 04:37 PM   #77
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Re: The Next Depression ?

Bunch of Dirty Market Timers!
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 05:58 PM   #78
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Re: The Next Depression ?

Nords writes:
Quote:
Well, I can understand Laurence being reluctant to give away his favorite hunting grounds, but I'll trade you for Rappongi streets.

Start in "west" Waikiki at the intersection of Kalakaua & Kuhio. Stroll north along the little side streets (pick any one!) toward the Ala Wai Canal. When you reach Ala Wai Boulevard, turn east and then go south at the next block (across Kuhio) until you reach Kalakaua again. Turn east again, go north at the next block back to the Ala Wai, turn east again, and go south again. Keep mowing the lawn, so to speak, until you run out of Waikiki at Kapahulu (by the zoo). Before you encounter their animals I'm sure you'll attract some sort of attention.
So they have moved mauka? I remember a lot of streetwalkers used to ply their trade right on Kalakaua, more than on Kuhio. Although I can't say if they were Laurence's companions or not.

As for Roppongi, man, I haven't been to that pit in at least 10 years. Went to Gas Panic once just to say I'd been there, but don't know much more I'm afraid. Walk south from the intersection with the "Roppongi: A High-Touch Town" sign, follow the road that curves left, take a left turn a block or two down and go about a block, as I recall. If in doubt, follow the young US military guys, they'll know where the good hunting is.

For architectural history buffs, if you go north from the sign instead of south, I seem to recall you will come to the former site of a famous hotel that Frank Lloyd Wright designed.

Bpp
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 06:10 PM   #79
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Re: The Next Depression ?

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Originally Posted by HaHa
Anyway, if it works for me, I can buy a nice Seattle condo ...
You must have a hunk of potential profit out there.* Those east side condos are really hot, even the ones in my zip code are churning before ground is broken.*

If MS fills up all the office space they are planning you can soon sub-divide the farm.
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Re: The Next Depression ?
Old 03-13-2006, 06:30 PM   #80
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Re: The Next Depression ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bpp
Nords writes:
So they have moved mauka?* I remember a lot of streetwalkers used to ply their trade right on Kalakaua, more than on Kuhio.* Although I can't say if they were Laurence's companions or not.

As for Roppongi, man, I haven't been to that pit in at least 10 years.* Went to Gas Panic once just to say I'd been there, but don't know much more I'm afraid.* Walk south from the intersection with the "Roppongi:* A High-Touch Town" sign, follow the road that curves left, take a left turn a block or two down and go about a block, as I recall.* If in doubt, follow the young US military guys, they'll know where the good hunting is.

For architectural history buffs, if you go north from the sign instead of south, I seem to recall you will come to the former site of a famous hotel that Frank Lloyd Wright designed.

Bpp
I don't know any street names except Kuhio, I'm terrible like that.

No the place that my coworker told me about is in downtown honolulu, on the same street as the First Hawaiian Bank building - King Street?

I simply nodded as I finished my set of bench press while watching NASCAR and drinking American beer and flipping through a Hustler, all at the same time.
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