obgyn65
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I believe the next financial crisis will be currency-based. With all the money printing that has been going on, my bet is that the US $ will crash.
The next financial crisis?
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papadad111
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I have lived in china for the past 7 years and I currently live here. Never believe these BS artists on the internet who have never set foot in China and are trying to sell you investment advice, books, etc. ...Seriously. This guy is a doofus...
I believe china will have her share of "crises" but I believe China's unique style of "state sponsored capitalism" as well as the willingness of the communist party to remain firmly in power and in control will be a tool used to navigate the property bubble waters, the shadow banking debt levels, the air pollution crisis, and troubles in the south china sea with her neighbors.
I would personally not buy property at these levels as the run up has been a classic bubble run...and there are far better property investment levels presuming you have access to other markets aside china....but popping of the property bubble will yield other financial advancements such as fully convertible RMB currency and other benefits that, in total, will be far better for the long term for the China economy.
As the property bubble goes poof...if it goes poof (and demographics make that not highly likely given the 800 odd million rural residence who wish to move to cities and become urban residents) then money flows will land in gold, equities, and for the lucky few who can move money cross-borders..into overseas investments.
An interesting aspect of the china economy today is that her borders are relatively closed and investment for her citizens is inward facing -- only 4 ways to invest..... Property (housing), Equities (Shanghia A shares), Gold (physical metal and paper gold) or keeping cash in your mattress.
At a solid 7.5% growth rate, there is plenty going on here and it makes even the best Euro or US growth rates look like walking dead zombie economy by comparison.
So...with the market being down about 9% in the past 5 years, I am a buyer and currently long China equities at these levels. (around 1980-2000 on the SSE).
You can play at home via ETF's such as FXI or YINN as a couple examples (or YANG if you are a bear)... or not. Mileage may vary.
I believe china will have her share of "crises" but I believe China's unique style of "state sponsored capitalism" as well as the willingness of the communist party to remain firmly in power and in control will be a tool used to navigate the property bubble waters, the shadow banking debt levels, the air pollution crisis, and troubles in the south china sea with her neighbors.
I would personally not buy property at these levels as the run up has been a classic bubble run...and there are far better property investment levels presuming you have access to other markets aside china....but popping of the property bubble will yield other financial advancements such as fully convertible RMB currency and other benefits that, in total, will be far better for the long term for the China economy.
As the property bubble goes poof...if it goes poof (and demographics make that not highly likely given the 800 odd million rural residence who wish to move to cities and become urban residents) then money flows will land in gold, equities, and for the lucky few who can move money cross-borders..into overseas investments.
An interesting aspect of the china economy today is that her borders are relatively closed and investment for her citizens is inward facing -- only 4 ways to invest..... Property (housing), Equities (Shanghia A shares), Gold (physical metal and paper gold) or keeping cash in your mattress.
At a solid 7.5% growth rate, there is plenty going on here and it makes even the best Euro or US growth rates look like walking dead zombie economy by comparison.
So...with the market being down about 9% in the past 5 years, I am a buyer and currently long China equities at these levels. (around 1980-2000 on the SSE).
You can play at home via ETF's such as FXI or YINN as a couple examples (or YANG if you are a bear)... or not. Mileage may vary.
BTravlin
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If that is the case, where are you currently moving all of your financial assets to?
NYEXPAT
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IMHO, what will presage this is fast and severe deflation to be rapidly followed by a bout of Hyperinflation. You have to be pretty nimble to get out of financials/commodities/RE and into Dollars and then only have a short time to get into gold. other options are to just stay the course or have your assets watch from afar in a country that you feel will be LEAST affected.
CaliforniaMan
Full time employment: Posting here.
Wow! What a roller coaster! So many predictions.
The problem with predictions is that whatever causes the next collapse will be something unexpected. If we expected it we would already be there.
And the odds of getting the guess and the timing right are not good if the results of those who have tried this in the past are any indication.
So I don't try. (But if I really did know... I wouldn't tell YOU!)
obgyn65
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I am not moving anything just in case my predictions are wrong . I worked in Europe for a few years, already have a nice nest egg there.
. I worked in Europe for a few years, already have a nice nest egg there. 
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
There will always be a next financial crisis as well as a next financial boom. The wise person plans for both knowing that he or she cannot never know the time they will hit or how long they will last.
F4mandolin
Full time employment: Posting here.
Yep....I predict I won't have as much money as I would like.....
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